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Game Level Similarity Projections : Quarterback Week 9

I have returned with the latest GLSP numbers for the quarterbacks ahead of Week 9’s slate of games, offering an insight into how our numbers see all the QBs performing in the week to come.

Dave Caban continues to produce the numbers for us, going back seven, five and three weeks to collect his data this week. After taking in the full projections, I will offer three QBs whose projections make them ideal streaming candidates (if available in your league), as well as three for whom bad times may be lying in wait.

Cam NewtonCARTB11.720.729.920.2
Aaron RodgersGBNE12.221.226.819.2
Mitch TrubiskyCHIBUF12.819.724.318.9
Patrick MahomesKCCLE14.518.22517.9
Matthew StaffordDETMIN1317.721.217.5
Baker MayfieldCLEKC11.616.923.416.8
Derek CarrOAKSF12.616.721.616.8
Russell WilsonSEALAC10.919.423.516.6
Tom BradyNEGB11.917.62316.4
Jared GoffLARNO1016.124.316.1
Kirk CousinsMINDET10.21725.115.7
Sam DarnoldNYJMIA12.216.520.815.6
Dak PrescottDALTEN9.715.721.515.2
Philip RiversLACSEA9.914.920.115.2
Ryan FitzpatrickTBCAR9.615.121.315
Ben RoethlisbergerPITBAL9.314.718.914.9
Alex SmithWASATL10.714.818.514.4
CJ BeathardSFOAK10.914.318.213.9
Deshaun WatsonHOUDEN9.614.118.813.8
Joe FlaccoBALPIT9.614.517.713.8
Jameis WinstonTBCAR9.213.118.813.3
Matt RyanATLWAS10.112.419.612
Brock OsweilerMIANYJ7.211.915.312
Drew BreesNOLAR5.19.913.89.7
Case KeenumDENHOU5.29.914.79.5
Marcus MariotaTENDAL3.47.7127.7

Take a Bow

Player Team Opp Low Med High AVG
Derek Carr OAK SF 12.6 16.7 21.6 16.8

Against all logic, Derek Carr had arguably his best game of the season last Sunday, the first game after his No. 1 wide receiver was traded away. In what is not looking like a great week to need a QB, he could be one of the better options around if you do. He is a QB1 by the low, median and high projections, with a top-six average. The 49ers have allowed multiple touchdowns in all but one game this season, and have just two interceptions in 2018.

Player Team Opp Low Med High AVG
Sam Darnold NYJ MIA 12.2 16.5 20.8 15.6

Sam Darnold has been a low-to-middling fantasy performer of late, scoring between 11.5 and 18.4 points in his last five games. The Dolphins are not a defense that one goes out of their way to attack with your fantasy QB, but they’ve allowed 10 touchdown passes in their last three games and five last week to Deshaun Watson. Darnold amassed a career-high 334 yards against them in Week 2 but was intercepted twice along the way.

Player Team Opp Low Med High AVG
Dak Prescott DAL TEN 9.7 15.7 21.5 15.2

The 2018 season started slowly for Dak Prescott, at least from a fantasy point of view. But he has eclipsed 20 fantasy points in each of his last two games, thanks to rushing touchdown in each. He is yet to eclipse 273 yards passing this year. Like the Dolphins, the Titans are not exactly welcoming towards fantasy QBs this season, surrendering a mere nine touchdown passes to five interceptions. But Prescott’s newly rediscovered Konami appeal should allow him to challenge his projections this week.

Take A Seat

Player Team Opp Low Med High AVG
Marcus Mariota TEN DAL 3.4 7.7 12 7.7

The Dallas Cowboys, playing against two run-based offenses in their last two games, allowed 10.2 and 12.7 fantasy points to the two QBs. As a reward, they get to play against another run-based team with a QB that looks mostly harmless in 2018. Marcus Mariota has three touchdown passes in 2018 and isn’t running enough to offer much added value on the ground. His high projection this week is 12 points, a figure he has exceeded just twice all season.

Player Team Opp Low Med High AVG
Case Keenum DEN HOU 5.2 9.9 14.7 9.5

Case Keenum has successfully managed to hold off the challenge of Chad Kelly in 2018, helped of course by Kelly’s off-field behavior that led to his release. His play has been mostly awful, and even the negative game scripts he’s faced have not allowed him to elevate his fantasy production above the QB2 level. He has exceeded his high projection of 14.7 in three of his last four games, to his eternal credit. But the Texans have not allowed a QB to top 11.7 points in any of their last four games. It’s not a great streaming week, as QB options are thin with all the teams on bye. But if you can avoid it, please steer clear of Keenum.

Player Team Opp Low Med High AVG
Drew Brees NO LAR 5.1 9.9 13.8 9.7

Yes, I know he was playing at an MVP level up until three weeks ago. Yes, I know that his interception against the Vikings in Week 8 was his first of the 2018 season. Yes, I know he is Drew Brees. But the numbers tell a tale of a QB that, if you can afford to do so, you should maybe keep out of your fantasy lineups this week. Brees has failed to top 16.8 points in three of his last four games. The Rams have allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to QBs in 2018, and have held their opponents to 286 yards or less in three of their last four. Admittedly, three of these QBs have been Russell Wilson (hardly ever throws anymore), Keenum and C.J. Beathard. Of course, if the game goes badly right from the get-go and the Saints are forced to abandon their ground game early, then maybe Brees gets enough volume to exceed his lowly GLSP numbers. If anyone can, it would be him. But I have my worries.

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