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Game Level Similarity Projections: Tight End Week 5

You don’t have to tell me that tight end is a colossal dumpster fire so this season. Believe me, I am painfully aware of the fact. I mean, do you think I want to bring my children up in a world where Jared Cook is the overall TE1? Or where Rob Gronkowski has failed to clear 9.1 PPR points in three of his four games? Nonetheless, our fantasy teams need at least one TE, and with that in mind, here are Week 5’s GLSP numbers, courtesy of the great Dave Caban.

Dave is running the models three times, looking back eight weeks, six weeks and then three weeks, before averaging the results. This means rookies who are playing well will be somewhat over-projected, especially when compared to some second-year players who saw limited usage last year, and whose results may be weighed down by their bad games from last season. We also now have access to a four games worth of data, enabling us to capture a true reflection in our projections for this years rookie class.

PlayerTeamOppLowMedHighAVG
Travis KelceKCJAX8.31319.714.3
Zach ErtzPHIMIN10.313.718.714.3
Eric EbronINDNE8.713.71914
Jordan ReedWASNO8121712
George KittleSFARI7.31016.312
Jack DoyleINDNE7.31115.311.7
Rob GronkowskiNEIND7.310.71411.3
Charles ClayBUFTEN69.31410.3
Benjamin WatsonNOWAS5.79.31410.3
Vance McDonaldPITATL5.39.713.710.3
Delanie WalkerTENBUF6.3913.310.3
Jared CookOAKLAC791310.3
Geoff SwaimDALHOU3101410
Rhett EllisonNYGCAR5812.710
Tyler EifertCINMIA58139
Mark AndrewsBALCLE58129
Will DisslySEALAR57129
Evan EngramNYGCAR57.712.78.7
Antonio GatesLACOAK48138
Vernon DavisWASNO3.76.712.78
Austin HooperATLPIT46.711.78
Austin Seferian-JenkinsJAXKC3.36.311.38
Greg OlsenCARNYG4.37.710.78
Jesse JamesPITATL4710.77.7
Demetrius HarrisKCJAX47107.7
Kyle RudolphMINPHI3710.37.3
Dallas GoedertPHIMIN26117
Jake ButtDENNYJ4697
Jimmy GrahamGBDET3.75.396.7
Jacob HollisterNEIND3596
Virgil GreenLACOAK2686
Nick VannettSEALAR3586
Jason CroomBUFTEN3576
AJ DerbyMIACIN2.74.78.35.7
Nick BoyleBALCLE2.347.75.3
Josh HillNOWAS24.37.35.3
Maxx WilliamsBALCLE1.747.35.3
CJ UzomahCINMIA2.7575.3
Ricky Seals-JonesARISF2475.3
David NjokuCLEBAL1.7475.3
Darren FellsCLEBAL2455
Michael RobertsDETGB0.52.564

Tune In

Eric Ebron IND NE 8.7 13.7 19 14

Eric Ebron has not been able to top the 51 yards he managed in Week 1 in any of his last three games. However, he has scored touchdowns in three of his four outings as a Colt, and with Jack Doyle likely to still be missing this week he gets a full opportunity share. He has managed to exceed his low projection this week in all but one game. While the Patriots have stamped down on TEs so far this season, Ebron should see sufficient volume to push his median, and if he can find the end zone again maybe challenge his ceiling.

Player Team Opp Low Med High AVG
Jared Cook OAK LAC 7 9 13 10.3

I don’t have to be thrilled with Cook’s place atop the totem pole to like him in a given week. Just as well, because he has one of the most appealing floors and ceilings among TEs. The Chargers were gashed by the 49ers and George Kittle last week, and with Cook commanding the second largest target share among TEs his volume alone puts him in play for another big outing.

Player Team Opp Low Med High AVG
Vance McDonald PIT ATL 5.3 9.7 13.7 10.3

Could it finally be happening? Could Vance McDonald finally be pushing his way past Jesse James to become the Steelers primary pass catching TE? McDonald has a 9/174/1 line over the last two weeks, and with the Falcons seemingly missing everyone who would normally stop players like him, he is a serious candidate to exceed his ceiling this week. He’s still out there in nearly 50 percent of ESPN leagues too.

Tune Out

Player Team Opp Low Med High AVG
Kyle Rudolph MIN PHI 3 7 10.3 7.3

It was surprising to see Kyle Rudolph so low in the projections, given that he’d seemed to be turning the corner in recent weeks. Indeed, he has at least five catches in each of the last three games. However, he still shares an offense with Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs. Given the Eagles apparent weakness against wide receivers, the Vikings may choose to lean heavily on this dynamic duo, leaving Rudolph in need of a touchdown to challenge his ceiling.

Player Team Opp Low Med High AVG
Ricky Seals-Jones ARI SF 2 4 7 5.3

The second-year breakout just doesn’t seem on the cards for Ricky Seals-Jones, even after the Cardinals made a switch at quarterback. His projections make for pretty awful reading, but given the current state of the TE union, you may be forced to roll him out. Best of British to you, if so.

Player Team Opp Low Med High AVG
David Njoku CLE BAL 1.7 4 7 5.3

David Njoku did post a season-high 52 yards in Baker Mayfield’s first career start, but given his athletic gifts, it is somewhat frustrating to see the Browns using him as a middle-of-the-field safety valve. 38.4 percent of the yardage the Ravens have allowed to the TE spot this year came last week against the Steelers, so if Njoku continues to see volume, he could certainly surpass his far from stellar ceiling this week.

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