Game Level Similarity Projections: Tight End Week 7

Week 7 is upon us, and every lineup choice we make becomes more important in our pursuit of fantasy glory — unless you’re like me, and all your teams have fallen into an abyss from which they can never recover. But I digress. I’m back once again with tight end GLSP data for the week ahead, courtesy of the great Dave Caban. This data is also available in the Weekly Stat Explorer. Are any of the players projecting for a good week on waivers in your league? Are you starting someone who will do you more harm than good? Let’s find out.

For this week’s projections, our projection guru Dave Caban looked back 6, 4, and 3 weeks. This way, we now only have data points using 2018 average stat lines, and using the average of three helps to smooth out the outliers you might run into when only using one average line.

PlayerTeamOppLowMedHighAVG
Zach ErtzPHICAR15.7192320
Travis KelceKCCIN12.3182218.3
George KittleSFLAR8.3151815
Eric EbronINDBUF9.7141815
Austin HooperATLNYG7.711.715.713.7
Rob GronkowskiNECHI812.717.313.7
David NjokuCLETB8.712.715.313.3
Tyler EifertCINKC6.311.715.712.3
Trey BurtonCHINE712.31612.3
Nick O'LearyMIADET7121412
Jack DoyleINDBUF481211
Kyle RudolphMINNYJ4.38.713.310.3
Evan EngramNYGATL4111410
OJ HowardTBCLE4.79.312.39.7
Greg OlsenCARPHI49.5139.5
Chris Herndon IVNYJMIN3.56.5118.5
Benjamin WatsonNOBAL46.5108.5
Jordan ReedWASDAL3810.78.3
Erik SwoopeINDBUF2.56.511.58
Rhett EllisonNYGATL37.5118
Cameron BrateTBCLE3.56.5128
Geoff SwaimDALWAS47.5108
Vernon DavisWASDAL2.56117.5
Ricky Seals-JonesARIDEN3.569.57.5
Mark AndrewsBALNO28107
CJ UzomahCINKC2.5687
Charles ClayBUFIND369.57
Jeff HeuermanDENARI3697
Josh HillNOBAL3.56.59.57
Nick BoyleBALNO256.56
Austin Seferian-JenkinsJAXHOU2.55.57.56
Jake ButtDENARI4686
Ryan GriffinHOUJAX1.556.55.5
Maxx WilliamsBALNO246.55.5
Michael RobertsDETMIA0475
Dallas GoedertPHICAR146.55
Virgil GreenLACTEN2465
Antonio GatesLACTEN13.56.54.5

Get Them In

Player Team Opp Low Med High AVG
David Njoku CLE TB 8.7 12.7 15.3 13.3

Discovering that he can use his hands to catch the ball has been something of a breakthrough moment for David Njoku this season. This discovery has helped Baker Mayfield, though Mayfield’s Adjusted Yards per Attempt mark of 5.84 when targeting Njoku still shows room for improvement. The Browns are playing the Buccaneers in Week 7, and the Buccaneers are a matchup that you should consider every week when looking for a TE.

Player Team Opp Low Med High AVG
Austin Hooper ATL NYG 7.7 11.7 15.7 13.7

It’s not flashy, and it’s certainly not sexy, but it works. I could be describing a Saab, of course. But I speak of Falcons TE Austin Hooper. The TE landscape has been somewhat desolate this season, of course. So players that are just able to take the field are being considered something approaching stars. But Hooper’s projections are most favorable, even before we factor in the possible increase in opportunities. Both Mohamed Sanu and Calvin Ridley were dinged up on Sunday. Both are expected to play on Monday Night Football. But the Giants are historically weak against TE, and that could be the way the Falcons attack them.

Player Team Opp Low Med High AVG
CJ Uzomah CIN KC 2.5 6 8 7

This is a rare case of me suggesting that a player not projected for great things should be in your lineup. I will not make a habit of this, I assure you (and also Dave Caban, who produces my projections). But C.J. Uzomah currently finds himself atop the Bengals TE depth chart and trailing only A.J. Green and Tyler Boyd on the target totem pole. Much like the Buccaneers, the Chiefs positively welcome TE fantasy production. These factors make it likely that Uzomah can outperform his numbers.

Get Them Out

Player Team Opp Low Med High AVG
Jordan Reed WAS DAL 3 8 10.7 8.3

The Cowboys are no great shakes when it comes to defending TEs, and Washington is still dealing with a plethora of injuries among their pass catchers. But Jordan Reed’s recent form, after a strongish start to the season, is a concern. You may be forced to start him, given the lack of depth at the TE spot this season. But his projections are not encouraging. He was supposed to have a prime matchup last week if you recall. But he was outproduced by his veteran colleague Vernon Davis.

Player Team Opp Low Med High AVG
Charles Clay BUF IND 3 6 9.5 7

If you love TEs with a basement-level floor, a staggeringly uninspiring baseline, and no ceiling to speak of, you’ll love Charles Clay. Of course, if you do love all these things, you probably shouldn’t be playing fantasy.

Player Team Opp Low Med High AVG
Mark Andrews BAL NO 2 8 10 7
Nick Boyle BAL NO 2 5 6.5 6
Maxx Williams BAL NO 2 4 6.5 5.5

If you could add all these projections up, and attach them to one player, then you’d have a TE who would be the envy of the entire NFL. The Ravens love throwing to TEs more than — to quote the great 50 Cent — a fat kid loves cake. But they are too cavalier with their affections, and spread the love around. Until a clear leader emerges, if this ever happens, it is simply too difficult to predict which Ravens TE you should target in a given week.

Help us, Hayden Hurst. You’re our only hope.