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Game Level Similarity Projections: Week 5 Quarterbacks

We’ve officially had a quarter of the 2018 NFL season, but this train doesn’t stop here. I’m here once again with quarterback GLSP data for the week ahead. This data is also available in the Weekly Stat Explorer. Who are this week’s big shots? Who are the small fries? Let’s dive in.

Dave is running his models three times, looking back eight weeks, six weeks and then three weeks, before averaging the results. With four full weeks behind us, we are finally able to get a truer projection for players still in their first NFL seasons, as well as those who sat out chunks of the 2017 campaign.

Matthew StaffordDETGB16.62128.621.5
Philip RiversLACOAK14.121.429.421
Cam NewtonCARNYG13.522.528.220.6
Drew BreesNOWAS12.219.528.319.2
Blake BortlesJAXKC14.320.326.418.9
Russell WilsonSEALAR13.518.425.118.5
Andy DaltonCINMIA15.818.321.418.4
Andrew LuckINDNE919.529.218.2
Aaron RodgersGBDET11.918.526.518.2
Ben RoethlisbergerPITATL11.917.726.518.2
Jared GoffLARSEA12.818.828.718.1
Ryan TannehillMIACIN13.218.521.518.1
Deshaun WatsonHOUDAL7.920.526.917.9
Tom BradyNEIND14.218.321.417.8
Case KeenumDENNYJ10.615.822.416.5
Derek CarrOAKLAC11.715.621.316.3
Patrick MahomesKCJAX11.518.32916.2
Matt RyanATLPIT11.318.223.316.1
Alex SmithWASNO13.415.918.916.1
Carson WentzPHIMIN5.91725.315.8
Joe FlaccoBALCLE8.513.524.415.3
Eli ManningNYGCAR9.71618.814
Tyrod TaylorCLEBAL7.215.620.313.9
Baker MayfieldCLEBAL9.414.517.613.4
CJ BeathardSFARI6.314.218.113.1
Kirk CousinsMINPHI1114.419.312.9
Marcus MariotaTENBUF6.913.517.512.7
Dak PrescottDALHOU7.811.91712.4
Nick FolesPHIMIN6.811.317.512.1
Josh AllenBUFTEN4.6111610.9
Josh RosenARISF6.19.61510.2
Sam DarnoldNYJDEN69.614.510.2


Player Team Opp Low Med High AVG
Blake Bortles JAX KC 14.3 20.3 26.4 18.9

Blake Bortles has alternated between middling and spectacular so far in 2018, with two 20-plus-point outings in his four games.1 The Chiefs, despite their 4-0 start, are positively bleeding fantasy points to QBs, making them a unit to attack. Bortles should be an excellent streaming option in what could turn out to be a shootout.

Player Team Opp Low Med High AVG
Andy Dalton CIN MIA 15.8 18.3 21.4 18.4

Like Bortles, Andy Dalton has stepped effortlessly from the middle of the road to the top of the class this season, with two games with more than 24 fantasy points. He has thrown multiple touchdowns in every game this season and seems to be developing a rapport with breakout candidate Tyler Boyd. The Dolphins had only allowed two touchdown passes from QBs before last week, but that doesn’t make Dalton any less appealing in our projections.

Player Team Opp Low Med High AVG
Jared Goff LAR SEA 12.8 18.8 28.7 18.1

After two ordinary games to start the season, Jared Goff has been on something of a tear in the last two weeks. Backed by an 8:1 TD to interception ratio, he has cleared 25 points in each of the last two outings against the Chargers and Vikings defenses. Goff’s low and median projections are not that impressive, but he has one of the highest ceilings of the week. The Seahawks haven’t allowed more than a single touchdown pass in a game since Week 2, but we’ve seen this team drop off on the backend when forced to play without Earl Thomas, regardless of how disgruntled he’s been.

Bottom of the Bill

Player Team Opp Low Med High AVG
Josh Allen BUF TEN 4.6 11 16 10.9


Player Team Opp Low Med High AVG
Sam Darnold NYJ DEN 6 9.6 14.5 10.2


Player Team Opp Low Med High AVG
Josh Rosen ARI SF 6.1 9.6 15 10.2

Rookie quarterbacks this week.

  1. Middling to poor, to be truly accurate.  (back)

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