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Game Level Similarity Projections: Week 6 Quarterbacks

Week 6 is upon us, and once more we find ourselves facing difficult start or sit questions. I’m here once again with quarterback GLSP data to offer a guide for the week ahead. This data is also available in the Weekly Stat Explorer. Who will rise? Who will fall? Let’s take a look!

For this week’s projections, our projection guru Dave Caban ran back 5, 4, and 3 weeks. This way, we now only have data points using 2018 average stat lines, and using the average of three helps to smooth out the outliers you might run into when only using one average line. We still need to be mindful of guys who have only played in a few games, but at the QB spot, that number is not too large.

PlayerTeamOppLowMedHighAVG
Matt RyanATLTB11.326.130.325.1
Tom BradyNEKC1722.128.422.7
Ryan FitzpatrickTBATL17.621.325.121.6
Andy DaltonCINPIT15.221.126.821.5
Patrick MahomesKCNE15.821.926.721.2
Aaron RodgersGBSF16.821.526.621
Kirk CousinsMINARI11192521
Ben RoethlisbergerPITCIN16.321.124.720.9
Alex SmithWASCAR15.21921.619.4
Jared GoffLARDEN13.818.723.219.1
Cam NewtonCARWAS13.51723.217.9
Derek CarrOAKSEA13.217.821.317.6
Mitch TrubiskyCHIMIA11.917.421.717.3
Ryan TannehillMIACHI11.616.920.616.9
Dak PrescottDALJAX12.716.619.316.6
Baker MayfieldCLELAC14.616.618.716.4
Philip RiversLACCLE9.816.121.916.3
Andrew LuckINDNYJ10.815.120.216
Marcus MariotaTENBAL9.81420.815.4
Deshaun WatsonHOUBUF10.815.119.115.2
CJ BeathardSFGB11.514.219.215
Sam DarnoldNYJIND1114.517.714.9
Carson WentzPHINYG8.815.818.414.4
Eli ManningNYGPHI9.81516.814.3
Case KeenumDENLAR8.914.317.514.2
Russell WilsonSEAOAK9.114.419.814.1
Blake BortlesJAXDAL10.113.91814
Joe FlaccoBALTEN9.512.918.413.7
Josh AllenBUFHOU7.611.919.113.2
Jameis WinstonTBATL610.518.711.5
Josh RosenARIMIN69.815.111.1

FLYING HIGH

Player Team Opp Low Med High AVG
Matt Ryan ATL TB 11.3 26.1 30.3 25.1

It’s been a miserable start to the season for the Falcons, but Matt Ryan can hardly be blamed. Ryan is currently the QB3 in fantasy football, thanks to his scoring at least 29.3 points in the three games between Weeks 2 and 4. It’s hard to see him falling off in this one, given that the Buccaneers have allowed the most fantasy points to QBs in 2018. Ryan’s floor projection is nothing to get excited about, but his median and ceiling numbers are the highest among all Week 6 signal callers.

Player Team Opp Low Med High AVG
Andy Dalton CIN PIT 15.2 21.1 26.8 21.5

Week 5’s win over the Dolphins marked the first time this season that Andy Dalton had failed to throw for multiple scores in a game, which contributed to his season-low 12.9 fantasy points. However, he boasts one of the highest floors and ceilings in Week 6, with his average projection good for fourth highest in the week that he should take part in a shootout with the Steelers.

Player Team Opp Low Med High AVG
Kirk Cousins MIN ARI 11 19 25 21

It may have escaped everyone’s attention, but Kirk Cousins is currently the QB7 in 2018. Thanks to a nonexistent ground game, Cousins is certainly getting plenty of opportunities to throw the ball around. Only Andrew Luck and Joe Flacco have attempted more passes than Cousins. Cousins’ projections include underwhelming floor and median numbers but offer high upside with the seventh highest ceiling of the week.

FALLING DOWN

Player Team Opp Low Med High AVG
Russell Wilson SEA OAK 9.1 14.4 19.8 14.1

Once considered a lock for fantasy production, Russell Wilson is becoming one of the riskier starts of any given week. He has multiple scores in four out of five games this season but has a high of 226 yards passing since Week 2. He’s also not running. The Raiders are in the middle of the pack in terms of fantasy production to QBs this season, but the GLSP for Wilson offers little encouragement.

Player Team Opp Low Med High AVG
Case Keenum DEN LAR 8.9 14.3 17.5 14.2

Case Keenum’s mostly garbage time 21.1 points in Week 5 were a season high, and marked the first time he’d thrown a touchdown pass since Week 1. After spending most of 2017 as a viable streamer, Keenum now looks closer to the toilet bowl than the Super Bowl.

Player Team Opp Low Med High AVG
Marcus Mariota TEN BAL 9.8 14 20.8 15.4

Marcus Mariota’s 30.4 points against the Eagles in Week 4 are beginning to look like a blip rather than a trend, as his Week 5 output of 4.2 marked the third time this season he has failed to hit double-digit fantasy points. His own lack of form, plus the stinginess of the Ravens, is quite evident in his lowly GLSP numbers. The Ravens have surrendered less than two touchdown passes in four of their five games so far.

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