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Game Level Similarity Projections: Week 7 Quarterbacks

As impossible as it may seem, we are in Week 7 of the 2018 season. I’m here once again with quarterback GLSP data to offer a guide for the week ahead. This data is also available in the Weekly Stat Explorer. Which QBs will stand tall in the week ahead, and which will fall and whimper?

For this week’s projections, our projection guru Dave Caban looked back 6, 4, and 3 weeks. We are now getting a full look at the entire 2018 season. This should help us bring you the clearest numbers yet.

Mitch TrubiskyCHINE15.621.928.321.1
Andy DaltonCINKC13.720.327.519.9
Dak PrescottDALWAS13.420.427.119.9
Jared GoffLARSF15.320.724.719.7
CJ BeathardSFLAR14.118.522.619
Kirk CousinsMINNYJ14.119.124.418.8
Patrick MahomesKCCIN10.519.327.118.3
Cam NewtonCARPHI131923.418.1
Tom BradyNECHI13.318.222.318
Sam DarnoldNYJMIN13.217.923.717.8
Andrew LuckINDBUF13.918.522.917.8
Carson WentzPHICAR11.919.424.917.5
Matt RyanATLNYG13.518.825.117.2
Blake BortlesJAXHOU11.715.922.516.7
Jameis WinstonTBCLE10.316.722.716.6
Eli ManningNYGATL1217.219.816.1
Ryan TannehillMIADET10.515.622.716
Brock OsweilerMIADET10.915.520.915.7
Drew BreesNOBAL9.816.621.215.6
Baker MayfieldCLETB12.815.618.615.4
Philip RiversLACTEN10.214.920.215.1
Joe FlaccoBALNO10.716.919.215
Ryan FitzpatrickTBCLE10.315.819.314.9
Alex SmithWASDAL10.513.918.514.8
Matthew StaffordDETMIA915.919.514.5
Deshaun WatsonHOUJAX10.116.219.414.4
Nick FolesPHICAR11.213.717.514.3
Tyrod TaylorCLETB6.214.621.813.9
Marcus MariotaTENLAC7.41117.612.3
Case KeenumDENARI7.312.416.212.3
Josh RosenARIDEN7.513.115.111.4
Josh AllenBUFIND5.67.918.410.9

Sitting Pretty?

Player Team Opp Low Med High AVG
Mitch Trubisky CHI NE 15.6 21.9 28.3 21.1

There remain question marks about Mitch Trubisky, but you can’t deny the fact that he is currently on the hottest streak of his young career. His last two games have yielded 670 yards through the air, along with nine touchdown passes. He finds himself with the highest low, floor and ceiling among all Week 7 QBs. He is available in 67.2 percent of ESPN leagues and makes for an intriguing streaming option against the Patriots. They’ve allowed the 10th most points per game to QBs this season.

Player Team Opp Low Med High AVG
Dak Prescott DAL WAS 13.4 20.4 27.1 19.9

The projections for Dak Prescott make him, like Trubisky, worth a look if you’re in the market for a spot starter. He seems to have discovered his running ability, with 17 rushing attempts in the last two weeks. He does carry a warning, however, as he has failed to top 208 passing yards on the road in 2018. His feet could compensate for that.

Player Team Opp Low Med High AVG
CJ Beathard SF LAR 14.1 18.5 22.6 19

There can be no greater compliment to Casey Jarrett Beathard than to say that the 49ers offense hasn’t looked any worse with him running it after the injury to Jimmy Garoppolo. Indeed, it may be performing better. Beathard has thrown two touchdown passes in each of his last three games, and like the two other names on this list, he should be in your thoughts as a potential streamer in Week 7. He has one of the higher floors among the QBs, with a 14.1 low projection. While his ceiling projection is not incredible, you could find worse plays.

Sitting Down

Player Team Opp Low Med High AVG
Josh Rosen ARI DEN 7.5 13.1 15.1 11.4

There are small signs of progress in the development of Josh Rosen, it is true. But he is still playing on an offense “masterminded” by Mike McCoy, and one of the slowest in NFL history. The Broncos defense is not what it was once, but a slow pace, along the Broncos weakness on the ground, severely limits any upside for Rosen.

Player Team Opp Low Med High AVG
Marcus Mariota TEN LAC 7.4 11 17.6 12.3

If you come to me seeking encouragement and reassurance that all will be right with Marcus Mariota, then you search in vain. Mariota has thrown a touchdown in one game this season, and that game was the last time he passed for more than 129 yards. He was beaten like a rag doll by the Ravens last week, and the Chargers are not likely to be any less forgiving. Get Mariota out of your lineups, and keep him out.

Player Team Opp Low Med High AVG
Deshaun Watson HOU JAX 10.1 16.2 19.4 14.4

Deshaun Watson had been on something of a tear leading up to last week. His love of interceptions continues to be an annoyance, of course. He has tossed at least one in his last eight games. Watson struggled against the Bills last week, which is not that surprising actually. The Bills allow the third fewest fantasy points per game to QBs. But playing behind an offensive line that seems intent on allowing Watson to feel the breath of every single pass rusher firmly in his face, the Jaguars are not a unit I would want to see Watson playing if I needed the fantasy points.

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