Welcome to the 2018 Game Level Similarity Projections (GLSP) for wide receivers, a weekly column designed to help you identify high-upside standouts and set your season-long lineups.
GLSP uses historical matchup, team, player, and Vegas lines to generate situation-agnostic projections. The low projection is equivalent to the 25th percentile point total from the comparable matchups. The median projection provides a benchmark, with even odds of the player producing more or less. The high projection is equivalent to the 75th percentile point total from the comparable matchups.
Please note that the model is run three times: 6 weeks back, 4 weeks back, and 3 weeks back and that the results are averaged. As a result, rookies that are trending well will be somewhat overstated and second-year players who did not score well last year will be underprojected.
Remember, the most valuable way to incorporate GLSP into your lineup-setting process is to identify surprisingly high and low projections, then strategically start or fade the outliers. All of Dave’s Week 7 WR GLSP projections are included below.
|Odell Beckham Jr||NYG||ATL||16.7||21||24||21.7||WR|
These are the projections from Dave Caban. They’ll be available each week on Wednesdays as part of the Weekly Explorer.
Surprisingly Strong Projections
Kenny Golladay comes in with the eighth-highest ceiling projection this week. Golladay has frequently been mentioned in this column, as he is experiencing a breakout season in which his GLSP projection has risen every week.
The RotoViz AYA App perfectly illustrates Golladay’s high upside downfield usage.
Golden Tate has maintained his target hog slot role and is on his way to another top-20 finish, but Marvin Jones has fallen into the shadow behind Golladay. The two downfield threats occupy similar roles with aDOTs more than 12 yards down the field, but Golladay is producing at a much stronger clip.
The two actually have not had that large of a discrepancy in opportunity, which made Jones a Buy Low after Week 4 and suggests he should soon regress positively, but Golladay’s consistently strong efficiency both this year and last suggest he belongs in the weekly top-20 conversation. Follow the GLSP projection and start Golladay as a top option this week.
Similar to Golladay, Tyler Boyd has vaulted himself firmly into the “must start” category until further notice. Boyd came through with 20 PPR points after GLSP nailed him as a top option last week. He is nearly splitting volume with A.J. Green and Shawn Siegele likened him to Keenan Allen in the latest episode of the RotoViz Overtime Podcast.
Jarvis Landry’s top-10 average projection of 22 PPR points starkly contrasts his recent 9.5 PPR average the last three weeks. The model is evidently taking Landry’s strong volume as a signal for this lofty projection.
Landry’s 66 targets through six weeks gives him the seventh highest wide receiver target total in the league. Of course, Landry is also dead last in receiving fantasy points over expectation at -31.3. The player who is second worst in that category is Landry’s teammate, Antonio Callaway.
Extensive statistical evidence exists which suggest Baker Mayfield will be a star in the NFL. Mayfield flashed glimpse of his star-power in his first bout versus the Jets but has struggled with growing pains since. Really, this is unsurprising give that coach Hue Jackson prohibited Mayfield from practicing with the first team offense before the season.
Landry has a history of strong career efficiency and his outlandishly poor performance this year is bound to regress. Continue to plug him in.
Like Landry, Donte Moncrief has underperformed his high volume at an historic rate this season yet is rewarded a starter-worthy top-24 average projection. I am bearish on Moncrief relative to Landry, as the Jacksonville offense looks to be in trouble as a whole, and Moncrief and his quarterback lack signals which might suggest their efficiency will improve – compared to Landry and Mayfield who certainly have evidence suggesting they will turn things around.
We can use the AYA App to juxtapose the egregious receiving efficiency from the top targets in Cleveland and Jacksonville.
Unlike Landry, Moncrief is certainly a bench candidate if you prefer a safer option. Nevertheless, do not disregard the upside his target volume presents.
The Los Angeles trio again all crack top-15 projections. With Cooper Kupp sidelined this week, expect Robert Woods and Brandin Cooks to be even more likely to provide week-winning upside than usual.1
Just as he was last week, DeSean Jackson is projected for another top-24 outing. Jackson’s unique role and superb efficiency were also discussed in last week’s piece.
A trend has developed where second or third options in elite offenses continue to project as top starters week after week. It is worth reiterating how much value drafters are continuing to accrue from these late-round ADP ancillary pieces of aggressive and high-scoring offensive schemes. Jackson, Chris Godwin, Golladay, Boyd, and all the Los Angeles receivers were evidently undervalued in drafts and are proving to be surprisingly consistent and effective cornerstones of fantasy squads this year. It will be interesting to dive deeper into this trend in the off-season to examine if something actionable can be applied to next year’s draft season.
Pierre Garcon, Antonio Callaway, Zay Jones, and Zach Pascal all are fringe starters with high ceilings and low floors. Proceed with caution, but look for them on the waiver wire if you need an upside start to fill a bye week.