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Game Level Similarity Projections: Wide Receivers Week 7

Welcome to the 2018 Game Level Similarity Projections (GLSP) for wide receivers, a weekly column designed to help you identify high-upside standouts and set your season-long lineups.

GLSP uses historical matchup, team, player, and Vegas lines to generate situation-agnostic projections. The low projection is equivalent to the 25th percentile point total from the comparable matchups. The median projection provides a benchmark, with even odds of the player producing more or less. The high projection is equivalent to the 75th percentile point total from the comparable matchups.

Please note that the model is run three times: 6 weeks back, 4 weeks back, and 3 weeks back and that the results are averaged. As a result, rookies that are trending well will be somewhat overstated and second-year players who did not score well last year will be underprojected.

Remember, the most valuable way to incorporate GLSP into your lineup-setting process is to identify surprisingly high and low projections, then strategically start or fade the outliers. All of Dave’s Week 7 WR GLSP projections are included below.

PlayerTeamOppLowMedHighAVGPOS
Odell Beckham JrNYGATL16.7212421.7WR
Alshon JefferyPHICAR16222924WR
Golden TateDETMIA16192722WR
Tre'Quan SmithNOBAL16182320WR
Jarvis LandryCLETB15202522WR
DeAndre HopkinsHOUJAX14192219WR
Michael ThomasNOBAL141821.319WR
Adam ThielenMINNYJ13233224WR
Cooper KuppLARSF13213223WR
Brandin CooksLARSF13172419WR
Stefon DiggsMINNYJ13192319WR
Donte MoncriefJAXHOU131719.318WR
Kenny GolladayDETMIA12.7202621WR
Tyreek HillKCCIN12233324WR
Mike EvansTBCLE1223.32722.7WR
Robert WoodsLARSF12222620WR
AJ GreenCINKC121824.719.3WR
Calvin RidleyATLNYG11192420WR
Cole BeasleyDALWAS1115.71917.3WR
Dede WestbrookJAXHOU11151815WR
DeSean JacksonTBCLE10172418WR
Julio JonesATLNYG10132018WR
Emmanuel SandersDENARI1019.32417WR
Michael CrabtreeBALNO10172117WR
Sammy WatkinsKCCIN10161916WR
Robby AndersonNYJMIN10151916WR
Allen RobinsonCHINE10141814WR
John BrownBALNO9.713.71916.7WR
Tyler BoydCINKC9222621WR
Keenan AllenLACTEN9152016WR
Will FullerHOUJAX9141916WR
Sterling ShepardNYGATL9141815WR
Nelson AgholorPHICAR9131815WR
Albert WilsonMIADET9141714WR
Chris GodwinTBCLE9111713WR
Curtis SamuelCARPHI9131613WR
Jermaine KearseNYJMIN9121412WR
Kenny StillsMIADET8.31621.715.7WR
Quincy EnunwaNYJMIN8141915WR
Taylor GabrielCHINE8121615WR
Mohamed SanuATLNYG8121613WR
Chester RogersINDBUF8131613WR
Devin FunchessCARPHI8121513WR
Chris HoganNECHI8131413WR
Torrey SmithCARPHI8131412WR
Tavon AustinDALWAS810.31412WR
Julian EdelmanNECHI7152216WR
T.Y. HiltonINDBUF7132015WR
Corey DavisTENLAC7131814WR
Christian KirkARIDEN7131714WR
Kendrick BourneSFLAR7141613WR
Jakeem GrantMIADET7121412WR
Keke CouteeHOUJAX791311WR
Danny AmendolaMIADET781110WR
Demaryius ThomasDENARI6.7172115.3WR
Taywan TaylorTENLAC6.713.316.312.7WR
Phillip DorsettNECHI6.31318.714.7WR
Mike WilliamsLACTEN6121613WR
Terrelle PryorNYJMIN61215.312.3WR
Rashard HigginsCLETB6121612WR
D.J. MooreCARPHI6131512WR
Cordarrelle PattersonNECHI691711WR
Keelan ColeJAXHOU6111311WR
Larry FitzgeraldARIDEN69109WR
Antonio CallawayCLETB5121612WR
Pierre GarconSFLAR5121612WR
Zay JonesBUFIND59.714.711.7WR
Willie SneadBALNO5111411WR
Ted GinnNOBAL5111411WR
Adam HumphriesTBCLE5101411WR
Josh GordonNECHI5101311WR
Marquise GoodwinSFLAR5111211WR
Anthony MillerCHINE58.711.310WR
Bruce EllingtonHOUJAX58129WR
Jamison CrowderWASDAL58119WR
Zach PascalINDBUF4151814WR
Jarius WrightCARPHI4121511WR
Laquon TreadwellMINNYJ4101410WR
Tyrell WilliamsLACTEN491310WR
Cameron MeredithNOBAL481310WR
Chris ConleyKCCIN491310WR
Marvin JonesDETMIA46119WR
Ryan GrantINDBUF47119WR
John RossCINKC46108WR
Courtland SuttonDENARI2.36.3127.3WR
Paul RichardsonWASDAL291410WR
Trent TaylorSFLAR29139.7WR
Jordan MatthewsPHICAR2596WR

These are the projections from Dave Caban. They’ll be available each week on Wednesdays as part of the Weekly Explorer.

Surprisingly Strong Projections

Kenny Golladay comes in with the eighth-highest ceiling projection this week. Golladay has frequently been mentioned in this column, as he is experiencing a breakout season in which his GLSP projection has risen every week.

The RotoViz AYA App perfectly illustrates Golladay’s high upside downfield usage.

GolladayAYA

Golden Tate has maintained his target hog slot role and is on his way to another top-20 finish, but Marvin Jones has fallen into the shadow behind Golladay. The two downfield threats occupy similar roles with aDOTs more than 12 yards down the field, but Golladay is producing at a much stronger clip.

Jones v Golladay thru 6

The two actually have not had that large of a discrepancy in opportunity, which made Jones a Buy Low after Week 4 and suggests he should soon regress positively, but Golladay’s consistently strong efficiency both this year and last suggest he belongs in the weekly top-20 conversation. Follow the GLSP projection and start Golladay as a top option this week.

Similar to Golladay, Tyler Boyd has vaulted himself firmly into the “must start” category until further notice. Boyd came through with 20 PPR points after GLSP nailed him as a top option last week. He is nearly splitting volume with A.J. Green and Shawn Siegele likened him to Keenan Allen in the latest episode of the RotoViz Overtime Podcast.

Jarvis Landry’s top-10 average projection of 22 PPR points starkly contrasts his recent 9.5 PPR average the last three weeks. The model is evidently taking Landry’s strong volume as a signal for this lofty projection.

Landry’s 66 targets through six weeks gives him the seventh highest wide receiver target total in the league. Of course, Landry is also dead last in receiving fantasy points over expectation at -31.3. The player who is second worst in that category is Landry’s teammate, Antonio Callaway.

Extensive statistical evidence exists which suggest Baker Mayfield will be a star in the NFL. Mayfield flashed glimpse of his star-power in his first bout versus the Jets but has struggled with growing pains since. Really, this is unsurprising give that coach Hue Jackson prohibited Mayfield from practicing with the first team offense before the season.

Landry has a history of strong career efficiency and his outlandishly poor performance this year is bound to regress. Continue to plug him in.

Like Landry, Donte Moncrief has underperformed his high volume at an historic rate this season yet is rewarded a starter-worthy top-24 average projection. I am bearish on Moncrief relative to Landry, as the Jacksonville offense looks to be in trouble as a whole, and Moncrief and his quarterback lack signals which might suggest their efficiency will improve – compared to Landry and Mayfield who certainly have evidence suggesting they will turn things around.

We can use the AYA App to juxtapose the egregious receiving efficiency from the top targets in Cleveland and Jacksonville.

LandryAYAMoncriefAYA

Unlike Landry, Moncrief is certainly a bench candidate if you prefer a safer option. Nevertheless, do not disregard the upside his target volume presents.

The Los Angeles trio again all crack top-15 projections. With Cooper Kupp sidelined this week, expect Robert Woods and Brandin Cooks to be even more likely to provide week-winning upside than usual.1

Just as he was last week, DeSean Jackson is projected for another top-24 outing. Jackson’s unique role and superb efficiency were also discussed in last week’s piece.

A trend has developed where second or third options in elite offenses continue to project as top starters week after week. It is worth reiterating how much value drafters are continuing to accrue from these late-round ADP ancillary pieces of aggressive and high-scoring offensive schemes. Jackson, Chris Godwin, Golladay, Boyd, and all the Los Angeles receivers were evidently undervalued in drafts and are proving to be surprisingly consistent and effective cornerstones of fantasy squads this year. It will be interesting to dive deeper into this trend in the off-season to examine if something actionable can be applied to next year’s draft season.

Scary Floors

Pierre Garcon, Antonio Callaway, Zay Jones, and Zach Pascal all are fringe starters with high ceilings and low floors. Proceed with caution, but look for them on the waiver wire if you need an upside start to fill a bye week.

  1. Reference last week’s projections article for a bit more depth on the Rams’ passing attack.  (back)

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