Like many others, when I first started playing DFS I would just take shots at tournaments and hope to hit it big overnight, but that’s not a winning strategy in this game. This series will help you go from being a “Joe” to a pro.
Throughout the season I’ll post my bankroll so you can view my weekly progress. This year, my starting bankroll will be $1,000 on DraftKings and $1,000 on FanDuel. I do this as a way to show how your bankroll can go through some valleys and peaks throughout the season. Experienced players aren’t winning 100 percent of the time — they face losing weeks like everyone else. The important thing is to be profitable at the end of Week 17. It’s a marathon, not a sprint.
Week 4 Recap
My strategy with the quarterback position has been to move toward some contrarian plays, leaning on high floors and hoping that chalkier plays would disappoint. That was the mistake I made riding with Russell Wilson, although he played well below the floor that I assumed he had established. Clearly after four mostly disappointing weeks it’s time to adjust our strategy. With scoring at an all-time high, it’s no longer a must to pay all the way up at QB but we should be factoring in week-winning ceilings and who has a real chance to reach them.
Also I don’t think I’m going to continue rolling out just one head-to-head lineup. This week my best lineup on DraftKings scored 188 points and it wasn’t good enough to get a win. That’s pretty frustrating but I may have been able to overcome that if I had two or three different lineups out there. Going all in on one roster construction just doesn’t seem optimal anymore with so many offenses having the ability to go off on any given week.
Week 5 Plays
Matthew Stafford (FanDuel)
Aside from Blaine Gabbert , the Dolphins opponents have been lighting them up in terms of passing yardage. However the points allowed numbers don’t reflect this because only Tom Brady passed for multiple touchdowns. Andy Dalton has thrown for multiple touchdowns in every game this season. Vegas is projecting the Bengals to score 27 points this week and their Running Backs are banged up.
Dion Lewis (GPP)
Buck Allen (if Alex Collins sits)
My strategy will continue to be jamming in at least two of the higher priced RB’s but if you’re looking for a cheaper option, I’m really into Breida this week. The Cardinals have given up the most fantasy points to RB’s and Breida has had at least 12 touches in every game. The Seahawks (3.8 YPC) just demolished this run defense with *squints* Mike Davis, while the 49ers are averaging 6.8 yards per carry at home.
The Seahawks offense is far from exciting but Lockett has been fairly steady so far this season. Doug Baldwin still looks to be less than 100% and the team should be forced to play catch up against the Rams juggernaut offense. Averaging six targets per game, Lockett could be cash game viable if you need to go cheap but also should be a great GPP option, as he only needs a big reception or two to have a day.
Aside from the floor James Connor presents, McDonald is my favorite way to get exposure to the expected Falcons/Steelers shootout. He has received five targets in every game since returning from injury and the beat up Falcons defense doesn’t have the personnel to cover athletic tight ends. Maybe any tight end, considering Ben Watson posted 5-71 against them.
Be sure to play around with these picks on our DFS Lineup Optimizer.