Like many others, when I first started playing DFS I would just take shots at tournaments and hope to hit it big overnight, but that’s not a winning strategy in this game. This series will help you go from being a “Joe” to a pro.
Throughout the season I’ll post my bankroll so you can view my weekly progress. This year, my starting bankroll will be $1,000 on DraftKings and $1,000 on FanDuel. I do this as a way to show how your bankroll can go through some valleys and peaks throughout the season. Experienced players aren’t winning 100 percent of the time — they face losing weeks like everyone else. The important thing is to be profitable at the end of Week 17. It’s a marathon, not a sprint.
Week 7 Recap
While we didn’t bring home a huge chunk of change, I was happy to see a positive ROI after the last few weeks. In last weeks article I pinpointed Carson Wentz as our cash game QB, however with the reports of heavy winds I moved off of him and went with Mitch Trubisky. The wind didn’t really impact Wentz’s production but Trubisky ended up being the better play. Duke Johnson being listed as the Browns starter was enough for me to move off of Nick Chubb. I made a late move up to James White on DraftKings and Latavius Murray on FanDuel which both worked out. Paying way down at receiver led us to lineup killer Jermaine Kearse but luckily he was 60 percent owned on DraftKings. I’m beginning to lean more towards boom/bust type receivers with solid volume over the perceived “safe” PPR plays in cash.
I made a few changes with game selection and bankroll management this week. Going heavy on head to heads over the first six weeks of the season didn’t pay off so now I’m going with 6 percent H2H, 4 percent 50/50 and 1 percent to GPPs. Overconfidence led to poor decision making with game selection but more diversification will help alleviate some of the damage of a bad week. Moving forward on DK I may put a little more towards tournaments as I’ve mostly struggled in cash games there so far.
Week 8 Thought Process
I probably won’t pay all the way up at quarterback but Patrick Mahomes is obviously the top play, as the Chiefs have a projected total of over 31 points. Andrew Luck is the second best value according to our DFS Lineup Optimizer behind Jameis Winston but has the best matchup of the week. He’s thrown at least three touchdowns in four straight games, and their starting running back Marlon Mack is banged up.
Andy Dalton is intriguing but I expect him to be highly owned in a projected shootout against the horrendous Buccaneers defense. I may have some exposure to him if I play multiple lineups, but after a hot September he’s cooled off dramatically over the last three games.
Kareem Hunt has been on fire lately and the Denver Broncos have allowed 220 rushing yards per game over the last three weeks. For anyone that still has concerns about Hunt after a slow start to the season, keep in mind it wasn’t because of a lack of opportunity.
As a heavy home favorite, Joe Mixon will be my play on the Bengals side of a 54 point over/under. While the Buccaneers have been getting dismantled through the air, they are still allowing a rushing touchdown per game. They’ve also allowed a league high 3.7 red zone trips on the road. James Conner should make the most of what is expected to be his last game as the Steelers workhorse, as his team has a projected total of nearly 30 points. Last time he faced the Browns he totaled 192 scrimmage yards and two touchdowns.
If you need to pay down at RB, Michael Dubner lists some interesting plays for your FanDuel Core.
On DraftKings I’ll be paying down at receiver so I’m looking at Doug Baldwin fresh off of a bye. In Seattle’s last game, Baldwin received 57 percent of the teams air yards. Sterling Shepard has seen at least five targets in every game and the Redskins defense has allowed the ninth most passing yards over the last three weeks. Demaryius Thomas is still seeing solid volume and should be chasing the Chiefs’ juggernaut offense. The GLSP ranks Thomas’ ceiling in between Stefon Diggs and Odell Beckham. Jermaine Kearse should be in line for a heavy workload but I can’t blame anyone for avoiding him after the goose egg.
On FanDuel, I may pay up for an Antonio Brown or Davante Adams who both appear to be set up for smash spots. I’m expecting the public to be on Adams considering the matchup with the Rams so that could push me towards Brown. Brandin Cooks and Robert Woods are both in play as well with Cooper Kupp out and the aforementioned matchup against the Packers.
Other cheap options:
The Broncos are tough on the perimeter and against slot receivers, but rank 20th in terms of DVOA against the TE position. I don’t typically pay up for tight ends, but the position is a wasteland and Travis Kelce has cleared 60 yards in every game since Week 2. Vance McDonald is a solid floor option at $3,700 on DK. C.J. Uzomah is $200 cheaper and could be a cheap way to get exposure to the Bengals offense — not to keep piling on the Bucs defense, but they literally can’t stop anything.