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Game Level Similarity Projections: Quarterback Week 12

We are officially another week closer to the end of the 2018 season. Another week closer to the fantasy playoffs for some, if not most, of you reading these words. Every decision you make regarding your lineup is crucial from this point on. So thankfully, we at RotoViz are here to make those decisions painless, with GLSP numbers for quarterbacks heading into Week 11.

The GLSP, or Game Level Similarity Projections, come courtesy of Dave Caban, and offer you a tantalizing glimpse into how players could produce this week based on previous match ups. So let’s see what the numbers can tell us for the week ahead.

Drew BreesNOATL10.422.83522.3
Nick MullensSFTB16.422.534.523
Matt RyanATLNO19.625.433.326
Ben RoethlisbergerPITDEN1521.331.121.1
Russell WilsonSEACAR16.325.130.922.8
Matt BarkleyBUFJAX19.923.427.921.4
Mitch TrubiskyCHIDET15.92327.822
Aaron RodgersGBMIN12.420.827.519.6
Baker MayfieldCLECIN14.4212719.1
Andrew LuckINDMIA14.820.826.621
Eli ManningNYGPHI12.917.425.119.4
Case KeenumDENPIT51324.514.5
Carson WentzPHINYG12.420.123.918.1
Cam NewtonCARSEA13.518.52318.4
Jameis WinstonTBSF9.11321.613.9
Marcus MariotaTENHOU10.116.920.615.3
Deshaun WatsonHOUTEN4.813.620.613.1
Tom BradyNENYJ8.516.419.914.6
Kirk CousinsMINGB7.41319.813.3
Andy DaltonCINCLE3.91419.512.8
Matthew StaffordDETCHI5.512.51811.6
Dak PrescottDALWAS69.117.813
Ryan FitzpatrickTBSF412.417.112.4
Philip RiversLACARI4.6917.110.8
Blake BortlesJAXBUF81316.411.5
Derek CarrOAKBAL4.611.116.110.8
Brock OsweilerMIAIND1.18.615.69.4
Joe FlaccoBALOAK4121511.7
Lamar JacksonBALOAK47157.8
Josh RosenARILAC4101311
Sam DarnoldNYJNE38129

The most obvious streaming option this week, based on the numbers, would be Nick Mullens of the 49ers. Mullens has only started two games, of course, skewing his GLSP somewhat. But he did pass for 250 yards in both games, and owns a 4-2 TD:INT ratio. The Buccaneers defense is a unit that should be attacked early and often, especially with the QB spot. Alex Smith and Nick Foles are the only QBs who failed to throw at least two touchdowns against the Bucs this season.

But when we look upon the moon, it would be foolish to ignore the stars. In the very same game, Jameis Winston makes for an intriguing start. Winston has been elevated back into the lineup after Ryan Fitzpatrick turned into a pumpkin a few weeks after Halloween in Week 11. Winston was horrific in his last start, but did have a good two game run prior to that. He scored 30.7 and 20.1 points in Weeks 6 and 7. The 49ers have allowed multiple touchdown passes in every game but two this season. They managed to restrict Josh Rosen to one in Week 5, while keeping Derek Carr out of the end zone in Week 9.

If you are truly desperate, or maybe slightly desperate and don’t mind a low-ceiling play, then you could do a lot worse than Eli Manning. He has low-end QB1 projections in the low and high fields, and does have five touchdowns and zero interceptions in his last two games. The Eagles defense is currently a circle … it has no corners. They have allowed at least 19.7 points to QBs in every game since Week 6. Mind you, the QB they held to just 9.2 points that week was Eli Manning.

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