We are back with GLSP numbers for tight ends heading into Week 12 of the NFL season, courtesy of our numbers maven Mr. Dave Caban. These projections are here to help you make the right choice when it comes to naming your line ups for the week ahead, in particular at the TE spot.
The GLSP, or Game Level Similarity Projections, offer you a tantalizing glimpse into how players could produce this week based on previous match ups. Let’s dive in and see what the numbers have in store for the players this week.
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One player for whom these numbers will almost certainly not reflect true usage is Cameron Brate. This is to be expected, after the late-breaking news regarding O.J. Howard being sent to Injured Reserve. Brate has not enjoyed his time in Howard’s shadow this season. But he does historically enjoy a greater chemistry with Jameis Winston than with his fellow Harvard alum Ryan Fitzpatrick. I expect Brate to greatly exceed his numbers here.
The numbers seem to be in favor of trusting Jeff Heuerman this week, and why not? The Steelers have been among the weakest teams with regards defending TEs in 2018. They’ve allowed 40 yards and/or a touchdown in eight of their last nine games. Only the offensive Jaguars offense failed to meet these marks. Heuerman projects as a top end TE1 across all three projections.
A deeper dart throw would be Nick Vannett of the Seahawks, despite his low numbers. He may not see a lot of targets, which is true of any pass catcher in the Seahawks offense. But he could somehow sneak his way into a touchdown against a very generous Panthers defense that has allowed a league high nine scores to TEs this season. He is merely a low end TE2 option by the projections, however, so you may be better suited to look elsewhere.