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Game Level Similarity Projections: Tight Ends Week 12

We are back with GLSP numbers for tight ends heading into Week 12 of the NFL season, courtesy of our numbers maven Mr. Dave Caban. These projections are here to help you make the right choice when it comes to naming your line ups for the week ahead, in particular at the TE spot.

The GLSP, or Game Level Similarity Projections, offer you a tantalizing glimpse into how players could produce this week based on previous match ups. Let’s dive in and see what the numbers have in store for the players this week.

PlayerTeamOppLowMedHighAVG
George KittleSFTB141819.717.3
Zach ErtzPHINYG1216.32217.7
Trey BurtonCHIDET8.312.314.312.7
Austin HooperATLNO7.71317.313.3
Jeff HeuermanDENPIT7.312.71814.3
Greg OlsenCARSEA7.311.714.312
Jordan ReedWASDAL711.316.712.7
OJ HowardTBSF71315.712.3
Jonnu SmithTENHOU710.31311
Evan EngramNYGPHI6.3111511.3
Vance McDonaldPITDEN6.39.712.710.3
Eric EbronINDMIA510.314.711
Jared CookOAKBAL4.7810.39
Jack DoyleINDMIA4.310.314.310.3
Chris Herndon IVNYJNE4.39.712.79.7
CJ UzomahCINCLE47.7119
Nick VannettSEACAR4810.39
Rob GronkowskiNENYJ46.397.7
Ricky Seals-JonesARILAC3.77.711.39
Antonio GatesLACARI3.3711.38.3
David NjokuCLECIN3.378.37.7
Jimmy GrahamGBMIN3.35.787.3
Mark AndrewsBALOAK36.312.38.7
Benjamin WatsonNOATL3610.78
Jordan ThomasHOUTEN37.310.37.7
Kyle RudolphMINGB35.37.76.3
Mo Alie-CoxINDMIA2.7697
Virgil GreenLACARI2.75.37.76
Ed DicksonSEACAR2.36.7117.3
Geoff SwaimDALWAS26.79.76.7
Jesse JamesPITDEN258.35.7
Cameron BrateTBSF1.73.75.34.7
Dallas GoedertPHINYG1.73.35.34.3
Vernon DavisWASDAL1.7354
Michael RobertsDETCHI1.33.76.75
Erik SwoopeINDMIA12.37.34.3
Nick O'LearyMIAIND12.74.34
Rhett EllisonNYGPHI12.73.73.3

One player for whom these numbers will almost certainly not reflect true usage is Cameron Brate. This is to be expected, after the late-breaking news regarding O.J. Howard being sent to Injured Reserve. Brate has not enjoyed his time in Howard’s shadow this season. But he does historically enjoy a greater chemistry with Jameis Winston than with his fellow Harvard alum Ryan Fitzpatrick. I expect Brate to greatly exceed his numbers here.

The numbers seem to be in favor of trusting Jeff Heuerman this week, and why not? The Steelers have been among the weakest teams with regards defending TEs in 2018. They’ve allowed 40 yards and/or a touchdown in eight of their last nine games. Only the offensive Jaguars offense failed to meet these marks. Heuerman projects as a top end TE1 across all three projections.

A deeper dart throw would be Nick Vannett of the Seahawks, despite his low numbers. He may not see a lot of targets, which is true of any pass catcher in the Seahawks offense. But he could somehow sneak his way into a touchdown against a very generous Panthers defense that has allowed a league high nine scores to TEs this season. He is merely a low end TE2 option by the projections, however, so you may be better suited to look elsewhere.

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