Welcome to the 2018 Game Level Similarity Projections (GLSP) for wide receivers, a weekly column designed to help you identify high-upside standouts and set your season-long lineups.
GLSP uses historical matchup, team, player, and Vegas lines to generate situation-agnostic projections. The low projection is equivalent to the 25th percentile point total from the comparable matchups. The median projection provides a benchmark, with even odds of the player producing more or less. The high projection is equivalent to the 75th percentile point total from the comparable matchups.
Please note that the model is run three times: eight weeks back, five weeks back, and three weeks back and that the results are averaged. As a result, rookies that are trending well will be somewhat overstated and second-year players who did not score well last year will be underprojected.
Remember, the most valuable way to incorporate GLSP into your lineup-setting process is to identify surprisingly high and low projections, then strategically start or fade the outliers. All of Dave’s Week 10 WR GLSP projections are included below.
|Odell Beckham Jr||NYG||SF||14.7||22||25.3||22.3|
These are the projections from Dave Caban. They’ll be available each week on Wednesdays as part of the Weekly Explorer. The apps version of the GLSP is available here for your own research.
Surprisingly Strong Projections
Tyler Boyd has the sixth highest ceiling and average projection in Week 10. GLSP’s projection does not even account for A.J. Green’s foot injury. In this week’s Buy Low Report, I hinted that the Cincinnati pass-catchers are all buy candidates given the murky timeline on Green’s return. As was mentioned in the article, Boyd’s PPR output is gaudy when he receives high target volume.
The RotoViz AYA App illustrates that Boyd has been a more efficient target for Andy Dalton than the perennially elite Green.
Also notable from the chart is the very tight target distribution in Cincinnati. Boyd and Green are the only two players who have seen more than 30 targets this year. Expect a relevant amount of Green’s share to spill over to Boyd. From a matchup-agnostic viewpoint, Cincinnati’s projected volume distribution makes Boyd a top wide receiver option for the foreseeable future.
Conveniently, Boyd faces a New Orleans team this week that has surrendered the most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers and that has been particularly vulnerable in the slot, where Boyd spends most of his time.
Boyd is a clear-cut top-12 WR play this week and a buy candidate despite his recent production.
Jarvis Landry, one of the least efficient receivers in the NFL this season, slots in right behind Boyd this week. Landry’s volume has been absolutely elite the entire year.
|Targets||Target Share||Red Zone Targets||Air Yards||Weighted Opportunity Rating|
But despite being top-10 in every relevant volume metric, Landry is the overall WR17 on the year and has the worst fantasy points below expectation of any player thus far.
Via the RotoViz Explorer, Landry has only a single top-12 weekly finish.
Blair Andrews points out that Landry might be doomed in a miserable Cleveland offense, but I cannot break principle.
Buy volume. Fade efficiency.
The Cleveland offense might be bad, but they are nowhere near the fantasy wastelands of Buffalo or even Arizona. Despite still going through growing pains with Baker Mayfield under center, Cleveland is a below average, yet not miserable by any means, 23rd in points per game at 21.1. To put that into perspective, Hue Jackson led them1 to score just a field goal less on average than the formidable Minnesota and Green Bay offenses who are 12th and 13th in points per game with 24.0 and 24.6, respectively.
The situation is not “good” in Cleveland, but, especially with their above average neutral situation offensive pace, their team performance is no reason to shy away from their players in fantasy.
Landry’s volume still gives him immense upside, and despite the negative public sentiment about his efficiency, he is still the overall WR17 and a must start every week.
The most surprising projection of the week easily goes to Tyrell Williams, who has the eighth strongest ceiling and tenth strongest average projection for Week 10. Williams’ usage indicates this projection is utterly unwarranted, though.
The Weekly Explorer illustrates that Williams has not cracked more than ten expected points this year.
Prolonging his role as a career big play specialist, Williams posted consecutive hundred-yard games in Week 6 and Week 7 for PPR outputs of 27 and 22 despite his limited opportunity. There is a chance Williams pops off again this week versus Oakland, as Los Angeles sports one of the highest team totals of the week at 29.5.
Nevertheless, the optimism in his projection is overshot. I have recommended him in this column in previous weeks as an opportunistic high ceiling starter in a pinch. He is still nothing more than that. Do not be fooled by the recency bias baked into his non-ceiling GLSP projections.
The 35-year-old Larry Fitzgerald is pegged with the 12th highest ceiling projection this week, likely to the surprise of his fantasy owners.
Since returning to full health, Fitzgerald has rebounded in both volume and output. The Weekly Explorer perfectly illustrates his usage trend:
In contrast, Fitzgerald’s teammate Christian Kirk’s volume has plateaued over the last six weeks.
Bookmakers have given Arizona a pathetic 16.5 team total at Arrowhead Stadium in Week 10, so touchdown expectation is certainly low for all Arizona players, but Fitzgerald is Arizona’s leader in red-zone targets, so expect him to at least still have a shot at upside.
Tyreek Hill is projected outside the top-20 for Week 10. What started out as a blistering campaign with more than 40 PPR points in Week 1 for Hill has become boom-or-bust on a weekly basis.
Hill is averaging just 11 PPR points in games he has not scored a touchdown this year, as he has cleared 100 yards in only his two multi-touchdown games in Week 1 and Week 6.
Hill also has staggering career home and road splits.
Continuing with the trend, Hill has six touchdowns in five road games this season compared to one touchdown in four home games. Notably, Kansas City is at home this week.
Working in Hill’s favor is Watkins’ presumed absence. Kansas City spreads the ball quite a bit, but Hill’s arrow is still pointing up with the Watkins news.
Consider him a top-24 option at home who always carries massive upside, but who does not resemble an elite option in Week 10.
GLSP shafted T.Y. Hilton with a projection outside the top-36 wide receivers. His floor is certainly scary versus a Jacksonville defensive unit that, despite not being on the same level as they were last year, has allowed the second fewest fantasy points versus wide receivers.
Hilton remains one of my favorite buy candidates, though, as his lack of volume in the last two weeks is likely just a product of working back in after his hamstring injury. A two-game sample of low volume is a silly reason to suggest that Andrew Luck’s perennial favorite target has suddenly fallen out of favor. Expect Hilton’s volume to revert to the levels he saw to start the year.
At home in the dome this week, Hilton is a strong start. His career average output at home outpaces his ceiling GLSP projection for this week.
- *cringe* (back)