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Game Level Similarity Projections: Wide Receivers Week 12

Welcome to the 2018 Game Level Similarity Projections (GLSP) for wide receivers, a weekly column designed to help you identify high-upside standouts and set your season-long lineups.

GLSP uses historical matchup, team, player, and Vegas lines to generate situation-agnostic projections. The low projection is equivalent to the 25th percentile point total from the comparable matchups. The median projection provides a benchmark, with even odds of the player producing more or less. The high projection is equivalent to the 75th percentile point total from the comparable matchups.

Please note that the model is run three times: eight weeks back, five weeks back, and three weeks back and that the results are averaged. As a result, rookies that are trending well will be somewhat overstated and second-year players who did not score well last year will be underprojected.

Remember, the most valuable way to incorporate GLSP into your lineup-setting process is to identify surprisingly high and low projections, then strategically start or fade the outliers. All of Dave’s Week 12 WR GLSP projections are included below.

PlayerTeamOppLowMedHighAVGPOS
Allen RobinsonCHIDET1323.731.724.3WR
Antonio BrownPITDEN16.321.72722.3WR
Stefon DiggsMINGB1620.726.322WR
Michael ThomasNOATL14232522WR
Julio JonesATLNO14232521.7WR
Adam ThielenMINGB13.318.72621.7WR
Odell Beckham JrNYGPHI10.7212621.3WR
Julian EdelmanNENYJ11.71924.720WR
Albert WilsonMIAIND11192420WR
Keenan AllenLACARI9.717.325.719.7WR
AJ GreenCINCLE9.721.723.319.3WR
DeAndre HopkinsHOUTEN9.317.724.719WR
Adam HumphriesTBSF111723.718WR
Davante AdamsGBMIN11.317.72017.7WR
Mike EvansTBSF12.316.32117.3WR
Larry FitzgeraldARILAC9.716.32117WR
Tyler BoydCINCLE9.31622.316.7WR
Josh GordonNENYJ101518.716WR
Anthony MillerCHIDET8.714.71916WR
T.Y. HiltonINDMIA1012.717.315.7WR
Marvin JonesDETCHI913.720.715.7WR
Pierre GarconSFTB8.715.71915.3WR
JuJu Smith-SchusterPITDEN9.7151714.3WR
Doug BaldwinSEACAR8.71316.314WR
D.J. MooreCARSEA8121714WR
Emmanuel SandersDENPIT9.313.317.713.7WR
Corey DavisTENHOU712.71613.7WR
Tyler LockettSEACAR8.312.71613.3WR
Kenny GolladayDETCHI81216.313WR
Jarvis LandryCLECIN812.716.313WR
Zay JonesBUFJAX8.312.315.312.7WR
Danny AmendolaMIAIND71214.712.7WR
John RossCINCLE6.311.314.712.3WR
Chris GodwinTBSF5.712.31612.3WR
Amari CooperDALWAS5.711.71512.3WR
Devante ParkerMIAIND6.3916.312WR
David MooreSEACAR6101512WR
Marquise GoodwinSFTB5.310.31512WR
Golden TatePHINYG8101311.7WR
Calvin RidleyATLNO711.713.711.7WR
Christian KirkARILAC6.7101411.7WR
Dontrelle InmanINDMIA5.710.314.311.7WR
Willie SneadBALOAK5.71113.311.3WR
Courtland SuttonDENPIT4.711.71611.3WR
Mohamed SanuATLNO69.714.311WR
Alshon JefferyPHINYG7101210.7WR
Cole BeasleyDALWAS6.39.712.710.7WR
Maurice HarrisWASDAL4.38.71410.7WR
Keke CouteeHOUTEN5.3111310.3WR
Donte MoncriefJAXBUF3.39.313.310.3WR
Tyrell WilliamsLACARI691210WR
Bruce EllingtonDETCHI6111310WR
DeSean JacksonTBSF5.39.71210WR
Antonio CallawayCLECIN5.3912.310WR
Dede WestbrookJAXBUF58.712.310WR
Curtis SamuelCARSEA4.71112.710WR
Marquez Valdes-ScantlingGBMIN4.7913.310WR
Marcell AtemanOAKBAL471110WR
Josh DoctsonWASDAL58.7129.7WR
Sterling ShepardNYGPHI3.78.713.39.7WR
Taylor GabrielCHIDET3.78119.3WR
Devin FunchessCARSEA6810.79WR
Randall CobbGBMIN46119WR
John BrownBALOAK3.77.7109WR
Keith KirkwoodNOATL38109WR
Nelson AgholorPHINYG3.77.7118.7WR
Demaryius ThomasHOUTEN37118.7WR
Michael CrabtreeBALOAK3.7798.3WR
Seth RobertsOAKBAL3.77108WR
Robby AndersonNYJNE3.77.3107.7WR
Laquon TreadwellMINGB369.37.7WR
Quincy EnunwaNYJNE3.36.39.37.3WR
Torrey SmithCARSEA2.35.77.77WR
Chris HoganNENYJ2.347.36.3WR
Mike WilliamsLACARI24.386WR
Rashard HigginsCLECIN2476WR
Ryan GrantINDMIA14.385.7WR
Kenny StillsMIAIND0.735.35.3WR
Terrelle PryorBUFJAX1.336.75WR
Chester RogersINDMIA13.35.34.3WR
Keelan ColeJAXBUF0.71.743.7WR
Jordy NelsonOAKBAL0.7233WR
Jamison CrowderWASDAL0022WR

These are the projections from Dave Caban. They’ll be available each week on Wednesdays as part of the Weekly Explorer. The apps version of the GLSP is available here for your own research.

Surprisingly Strong Projections

Allen Robinson has the turkey projection of the week.1 GLSP over-stuffed Robinson’s projection2 and has him as the number one option this week.

In last week’s GLSP column, I suggested that Robinson’s top-15 projection was too ambitious. For unknown reasons, Robinson got upgraded to the best projection for Week 12 after busting with only 6.9 PPR points last week. The same logic used in last week’s argument against Robinson again applies this week.

Stefon Diggs notably has a stronger projection than Adam Thielen this week. I recommended Diggs as an arbitrage buy low candidate off Thielen’s elevated price tag a month ago, and the switch in volume has come to fruition.

The RotoViz Player Usage App illustrates how Diggs’ target market share has surpassed Thielen for the last few weeks.

Diggs2

In terms of opportunity share, the same trend exists as that of target market share.

Diggs1

It will be interesting to see how this trend bears out for the remainder of the season, but it is difficult to argue that Thielen is much more valuable than Diggs at this point.

Julian Edelman stands out this week with a top-10 projection. Both he and Josh Gordon have seen their volume rise in recent weeks and are strong options for the rest of the season.

Edelman has out-targeted Gordon, but Gordon’s down-the-field usage has him surpassing Edelman in weighted opportunity rating.

Edelman

gordon1

Expect both to contribute to fantasy success down the stretch, and don’t sleep on Rob Gronkowski either.

Anthony Miller and D.J. Moore are on the rise, and both are projected as viable starters now.

I could not have been higher on Moore heading into the season, so I am not surprised to see that he has blossomed into Cam Newton’s most efficient target.

The AYA App reveals just how much more productive it has been for Newton to target Moore than for him to target Devin Funchess or any other Carolina pass catcher.

moore1

Moore’s volume still has a ways to go – he has averaged only five targets over the last three weeks – but his prolific efficiency thus far suggests he has a strong future in the league.

Miller has seen a steady stream of volume the last four weeks and is clearly part of Matt Nagy’s scheme.

miller1

Like Moore, Miller has outproduced his wide receiver counterparts this season from an efficiency standpoint, although Miller is still behind Tarik Cohen and Trey Burton.

miller2

Expect both rookie wide receivers to continue to be starting caliber options.

Scary Floors

Kenny Golladay is again underprojected. Golladay has seen 27 targets over the last two weeks and is a slam dunk start with Marvin Jones out. Roll him out confidently as a top-15 option on Thanksgiving.

Jarvis Landry’s stock has been steadily slipping. He certainly deserves the low floor GLSP has given him this week.

Notice, though, that although Landry’s raw volume dipped the last two weeks, his market share only dipped in one of these weeks.

landry1

landry2

Recognize Landry’s floor, but also understand that his 30 percent target market share over the last four games still puts him in the must-start category.

 

  1. I don’t really know what this means, to be honest, but it was supposed to suggest his projection is ridiculous.  (back)
  2. Two awkward puns in the first two sentences? Love it.  (back)

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