Welcome to the 2018 Game Level Similarity Projections (GLSP) for wide receivers, a weekly column designed to help you identify high-upside standouts and set your season-long lineups.
GLSP uses historical matchup, team, player, and Vegas lines to generate situation-agnostic projections. The low projection is equivalent to the 25th percentile point total from the comparable matchups. The median projection provides a benchmark, with even odds of the player producing more or less. The high projection is equivalent to the 75th percentile point total from the comparable matchups.
Please note that the model is run three times: eight weeks back, five weeks back, and three weeks back and that the results are averaged. As a result, rookies that are trending well will be somewhat overstated and second-year players who did not score well last year will be underprojected.
Remember, the most valuable way to incorporate GLSP into your lineup-setting process is to identify surprisingly high and low projections, then strategically start or fade the outliers. All of Dave’s Week 12 WR GLSP projections are included below.
|Odell Beckham Jr||NYG||PHI||10.7||21||26||21.3||WR|
These are the projections from Dave Caban. They’ll be available each week on Wednesdays as part of the Weekly Explorer. The apps version of the GLSP is available here for your own research.
Surprisingly Strong Projections
In last week’s GLSP column, I suggested that Robinson’s top-15 projection was too ambitious. For unknown reasons, Robinson got upgraded to the best projection for Week 12 after busting with only 6.9 PPR points last week. The same logic used in last week’s argument against Robinson again applies this week.
Stefon Diggs notably has a stronger projection than Adam Thielen this week. I recommended Diggs as an arbitrage buy low candidate off Thielen’s elevated price tag a month ago, and the switch in volume has come to fruition.
The RotoViz Player Usage App illustrates how Diggs’ target market share has surpassed Thielen for the last few weeks.
In terms of opportunity share, the same trend exists as that of target market share.
It will be interesting to see how this trend bears out for the remainder of the season, but it is difficult to argue that Thielen is much more valuable than Diggs at this point.
Julian Edelman stands out this week with a top-10 projection. Both he and Josh Gordon have seen their volume rise in recent weeks and are strong options for the rest of the season.
Edelman has out-targeted Gordon, but Gordon’s down-the-field usage has him surpassing Edelman in weighted opportunity rating.
Expect both to contribute to fantasy success down the stretch, and don’t sleep on Rob Gronkowski either.
Anthony Miller and D.J. Moore are on the rise, and both are projected as viable starters now.
I could not have been higher on Moore heading into the season, so I am not surprised to see that he has blossomed into Cam Newton’s most efficient target.
The AYA App reveals just how much more productive it has been for Newton to target Moore than for him to target Devin Funchess or any other Carolina pass catcher.
Moore’s volume still has a ways to go – he has averaged only five targets over the last three weeks – but his prolific efficiency thus far suggests he has a strong future in the league.
Miller has seen a steady stream of volume the last four weeks and is clearly part of Matt Nagy’s scheme.
Like Moore, Miller has outproduced his wide receiver counterparts this season from an efficiency standpoint, although Miller is still behind Tarik Cohen and Trey Burton.
Expect both rookie wide receivers to continue to be starting caliber options.
Kenny Golladay is again underprojected. Golladay has seen 27 targets over the last two weeks and is a slam dunk start with Marvin Jones out. Roll him out confidently as a top-15 option on Thanksgiving.
Jarvis Landry’s stock has been steadily slipping. He certainly deserves the low floor GLSP has given him this week.
Notice, though, that although Landry’s raw volume dipped the last two weeks, his market share only dipped in one of these weeks.
Recognize Landry’s floor, but also understand that his 30 percent target market share over the last four games still puts him in the must-start category.