Welcome to the 2018 Game Level Similarity Projections (GLSP) for wide receivers, a weekly column designed to help you identify high-upside standouts and set your season-long lineups.
GLSP uses historical matchup, team, player, and Vegas lines to generate situation-agnostic projections. The low projection is equivalent to the 25th-percentile point total from the comparable matchups. The median projection provides a benchmark, with even odds of the player producing more or less. The high projection is equivalent to the 75th-percentile point total from the comparable matchups.
Please note that the model is run three times: six weeks back, four weeks back, and three weeks back and that the results are averaged. As a result, rookies that are trending well will be somewhat overstated and second-year players who did not score well last year will be underprojected.
Remember, the most valuable way to incorporate GLSP into your lineup-setting process is to identify surprisingly high and low projections, then strategically start or fade the outliers. All of Dave’s Week 13 WR GLSP projections are included below.
|Odell Beckham Jr||NYG||CHI||11||16||25||18.7||WR|
These are the projections from Dave Caban. They’ll be available each week on Wednesdays as part of the Weekly Explorer. The apps version of the GLSP is available here for your own research.
The wide receiver landscape is relatively well-defined at this point of the season, evidenced by the lack of surprising names in the top-18 average GLSP projections for Week 13. There are still notable trends among the elite options, though, and there is certainly an opportunity to explore which non-elite options might help clinch a playoff birth in Week 13.
In Week 12, Stefon Diggs yet again out-targeted Adam Thielen. See last week’s article for more commentary on this trend and note that Diggs is again the preferred option to Thielen this week from a projection standpoint. Both Diggs and Thielen will finish the season as elite options on a Minnesota team that unexpectedly transitioned from the fifth run-heaviest team in 2017 with a 54 percent run tendency to the fourth pass-happiest team this year with a 66 percent pass tendency under Kirk Cousins.
The only thing that can stop the dynamic Minnesota duo at this point is injury. Diggs popped up on the injury report Wednesday and is known for his poor production splits when on the injury report versus off it come game time. But, given his production this season, Diggs is a must-start player if he is scheduled to be on the field at all.
Amari Cooper has a top-10 projection this week after he feasted on Thanksgiving Day for 38 PPR points. Cooper has garnered a top-10 market share volume profile since signing with Dallas and has played a part in spring-boarding his new team to a current three-game win streak.
Via the AYA App, Cooper is far and away Dak Prescott’s most efficient target. Dallas’ pass attempts have risen from the start of the year, too. After surpassing 29 pass attempts only once in their first six games, Dallas has cleared that mark in each of their last five games and has averaged 33.2 pass attempts. Dallas’ newfound willingness to air the ball out increases the chances Cooper can hit the monstrous upside he displayed last weekend.
Expectations should be sky-high versus an exploitable New Orleans secondary which has allowed the most points to opposing wide receivers on the season. Cooper’s advantageous schedule for the remainder of the fantasy season made him one of the best buy lows heading into this end stretch.
T.Y. Hilton has re-solidified his role as the number one option in the firing Indianapolis offense. Now seemingly fully recovered from the hamstring injury he endured earlier in the season, Hilton has delineated himself with a 27 percent target market share over the last three weeks.
Hilton’s strong volume share of the Indianapolis offense give him immense upside as Indianapolis is behind only New Orleans, Kansas City, and Los Angeles in points per game and is fourth in pass attempts per game.
GLSP bestows confidence in Hilton despite a formidable matchup versus a Jacksonville secondary which has allowed the fourth fewest fantasy points to opposing wide receivers this year. Hilton posted a modest three catches for 77 yards and 10.7 PPR points versus the Jalen Ramsey led squad three weeks ago. Hilton has had two of his best games of the season since then, though, so it is appropriate for expectations to surpass his prior production.
Expect Hilton to have sneaky high-upside this fantasy playoff season.
Corey Davis has undoubtedly been one of the most frustrating players to own this season. The Weekly Explorer illustrates his sporadic production.
Davis, similar to the maligned Jarvis Landry, has been a case of trusting volume over production. Davis has popped all season in market share based volume metrics, coming in at fourth in weighted opportunity and fifth in target market share and air yards market share out of all wide receivers. Such metrics suggest Davis would be top-five at his position this year.
But, Davis has thoroughly underperformed the expectations set forth by his weekly volume shares because of Tennessee’s low overall pass volume. Davis’ “counting volume stats” have more directly aligned with his fantasy production this year.
Via the Weekly Explorer, Davis’ targets per game and air yards per game suite his 23rd ranked fantasy points per game production.
GLSP’s WR24 projection for Davis seems prudent.
Tyler Lockett’s lofty touchdown rate has bolstered his fantasy production thus far but also suggests he is likely to regress from an overall efficiency standpoint.
Lockett’s eight touchdowns on just 54 targets has given him the third highest receiving fantasy points on the season out of all wide receivers this year. Bound for regression, Lockett’s borderline top-24 GLSP projection is too lofty.