Like many others, when I first started playing DFS I would just take shots at tournaments and hope to hit it big overnight, but that’s not a winning strategy in this game. This series will help you go from being a “Joe” to a pro.
Throughout the season I’ll post my bankroll so you can view my weekly progress. This year, my starting bankroll will be $1,000 on DraftKings and $1,000 on FanDuel. I do this as a way to show how your bankroll can go through some valleys and peaks throughout the season. Experienced players aren’t winning 100 percent of the time — they face losing weeks like everyone else. The important thing is to be profitable at the end of Week 17. It’s a marathon, not a sprint.
Week 8 Recap
After tinkering with my lineups Saturday night into Sunday morning I ended up with my best lineup of the season. I mentioned last week I was only targeting Hunt, Mixon and Connor at running back but George Fitopoulos’ Dollars Per Opportunity article got me off of some bad plays and onto Larry Fitzgerald. I then moved off Travis Kelce to pay up for Patrick Mahomes‘ floor and opted to take the shot on Sammy Watkins‘ cheap upside which paid off huge.
The strategy to pay up for heavy volume at RB and pay down for upside at WR has been effective for me over the last two weeks. Also the bankroll and game selection adjustments I mentioned in last week’s article have coincidentally led to positive ROI. Hopefully we keep trending in the right direction in week nine.
Week 9 Thought Process
Cam Newton has the best matchup this week according to our fantasy streaming app and is the second best value according to the DFS Lineup Optimizer. That said, I think I may target the bigger value play, Mitchell Trubisky. The Bills aren’t getting beat for big gains but they’re still allowing teams to complete 67 percent of their passes (seventh worst) and are allowing teams to score 65 percent of the time in the red zone (seventh worst). The Bears have the averaged 3.7 red zone attempts (eighth most) on the road this season. Even if Trubisky doesn’t end up having a huge game, the floor should be there as he’s had multiple touchdown passes in five of his last six games and at least 47 rushing yards in four straight.
Alex Smith is also really intriguing at home against the Falcons. Our FFGhost explains why he likes him in his DraftKings cash plays article.
(Throws down post-it note) “Todd Gurley no matter what.” Melvin Gordon would be a solid tournament pivot if we hear some good news on his hamstring. The Chiefs are currently projected to score over 30 points against the Browns who are going through some internal problems and could very well just lay down, even at home. I’m expecting Kareem Hunt to carry the offense in this one. Christian McCaffrey is a DraftKings only option for me but he gets to feast on the same Buccaneers defense that allowed Joe Mixon to rack up 123 rushing yards and two touchdowns in week 8. Kenyan Drake could be an interesting arbitrage play off of McCaffrey and while it feels unsafe, he’s been given solid opportunity over the last month.
The idea behind paying down at quarterback this week is so I can get a piece of the WRs in projected shootouts. All the Rams receivers are in play against the Saints defense but Cooper Kupp appears to be returning just in time to pick on Saints slot cornerback P.J. Williams. Vikings slot receiver Adam Thielen totaled 103 yards and a touchdown last week. Emmanuel Sanders will likely be highly owned after the Demaryius Thomas trade but I think I prefer Jarvis Landry at $100 more. The Browns should be chasing and the Chiefs allow the second most yards after the catch. With that in mind, the Pittsburgh Steelers have allowed the fifth most air yards and John Brown has the second most air yards on the season. Ryan Fitzpatrick being back in the lineup is good for DeSean Jackson, who is the eight best value play according to the DFS Lineup Optimizer. Sammy Watkins is a must play if Tyreek Hill ends up sitting this one out.
Other potential cheap options:
- Danny Amendola and Devante Parker
- D.J. Moore will be highly owned but don’t sleep on Paul Richardson in that price range.
- Anthony Miller
With Stefon Diggs banged up, the Vikings may look to Kyle Rudolph to be a bigger part of the offense. He’s received at least four targets in every game since week 2 and is averaging nearly a red-zone target per game. The Vikings are projected for over 27 points against the Lions, who are allowing 2.1 passing touchdowns per game (tied for sixth most). O.J. Howard is having a monster season. He’s currently averaging 60 yards and 12 fantasy points per game. Even with the Buccaneers playing musical chairs at quarterback, Howard is as safe as it gets at the TE position. Ben Watson is the dart throw play of the week in a game with a 60-point over/under. Watson was seeing four to five targets per game pretty consistently before his goose egg last week, but should have some scoring opportunities in this matchup.