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Creating Your FanDuel Core – Week 15

Michael Dubner highlights the players he’s considering for his core FanDuel lineup in Week 15.

WEEK 14 RECAP

  • Link to Creating Your FanDuel Core – Week 14
  • As usual, the high-priced RBs didn’t disappoint. Ezekiel Elliott was the cover of last week’s article, and he didn’t disappoint with 40 touches! Saquon Barkley might have had 300 yards from scrimmage if the Giants weren’t up by 40. Christian McCaffrey continues to find the end zone and had his usual six receptions. Alvin Kamara was the riskiest of the group considering his lower touch floor.
  • The cheap RBs in Jaylen Samuels and Jeff Wilson did enough to pay off their salaries, and if you played one then you could afford two expensive RBs in the other spots.
  • Eric Ebron continued to be one of the most underpriced TEs given his role – and he had another eight targets and a touchdown, again.
  • Chris Godwin was the ultimate “run bad” – he may have only had one reception, but he led the league in air yards.
  • Keenan Allen did enough in cash, but you probably didn’t win with him in GPPs – even with a decent game – considering his ownership. I still think he was an awesome play, but I did start to get a little scared throughout the week when I considered that the Chargers passing volume could’ve taken a dive if they blew out the Bengals.

CREATING YOUR FANDUEL CORE – WEEK 15

I’m primarily a cash game and single-entry tournament player, and I have the vast majority of my money (80 percent) on one lineup. Playing one team forces me to make the optimal lineup. Below are the primary players I’m considering for my FanDuel core in Week 15.

LEONARD FOURNETTE ($8,200) VERSUS THE REDKINS

Fournette’s price on FanDuel doesn’t really reflect the discount we probably deserve considering he’s disappointed with 14 points per game (12th), but Fournette is still worth it as he will run wild in Week 15. In his three games before last week’s disappointment, Fournette averaged 26.7 touches and 119 yards. His volume during that span equated to 21.6 expected fantasy points per game, which is a top-five pace. On FanDuel where we’re chasing touchdowns, Fournette is always a threat to find the paint multiple times, and he’s averaging 4 red zone attempts per game in his last four games.

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What’s really standing out is the game script, as the Jaguars are 7.5-point home favorites versus the Redskins. Barkley just ran all over the Redskins, accumulating 197 yards before resting once the Giants took a 40 point lead. Giants, Eagles, Cowboys, Texans, Buccaneers, and Falcons RBs have all found their ways to 150-plus yards against the Redskins in six out of six games. Fournette should see 20-27 touches against the Redskins, who are just drawing dead at this point in the season.

EZEKIEL ELLIOTT’S ($8,800) RIDICULOUS OPPORTUNITY

While the Cowboys are road underdogs, the Cowboys offense has exploded since trading for Amari Cooper. With the size of the offensive production pie getting larger in Dallas, that obviously has had a positive impact on Elliott’s box score.

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Elliot’s averaging nearly 50 yards more per game with Cooper in the lineup. I’m not nervous about Elliot’s price approaching $9K because he’s finally seeing the receiving role that Dallas should have incorporated from the start. After averaging 29.6 opportunities per game in Weeks 10-13, Elliot followed up with a 40 (!) touch outing.

Other RBs to consider but who aren’t cash game and single-entry GPP locks due to some concerns are Saquon Barkley (ridiculous role but elevated price tag), Joe Mixon (31 touches last week and gets Oakland, but is attached to Bengals offense), Dalvin Cook (home versus Miami and affordable price, but he hasn’t had more than 13 carries since Week 1), and Jaylen Samuels (high pass-catching floor but lower TD expectation).

ANTONIO BROWN ($8,600) AT HOME

RotoViz Radio Co-Host Matthew Freedman is persuasive in his argument that Antonio Brown is on the decline, but Brown is always gold at home.

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Brown is in the top 10 in pretty much every major WR category we care about.

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Opposing offenses are scoring 5.3 points more when the Patriots are on the road.

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FANDUEL LOWERED AMARI COOPER’S PRICE ($6,600) 

Cooper blew up last week with a 10 reception, 217 yard, three touchdown performance. Naturally FanDuel responds by lowering his price. Cooper consumes 15 percent of the salary cap on DraftKings, but just 11 percent on FanDuel. Cooper is significantly undervalued on FanDuel considering his splits as a Cowboy.

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Sure, his averages are inflated after last week, but since joining the Cowboys six weeks ago, Cooper has just one game below eight targets.

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I can’t imagine not playing Cooper in cash games. However, it’s always fair to consider a GPP fade whenever Cooper is chalk.

ERIC EBRON ($6,500) IS STILL UNDERPRICED

It’s the same analysis with Ebron every week whenever Jack Doyle is out. Ebron is averaging 10.6 targets per game with Doyle out of the lineup, which is more than target leaders Zach Ertz (9.9), Travis Kelce (9.5), and George Kittle (7.8)

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Even in games in which Doyle plays, Ebron still ranks towards the top of the TE leaderboards in every major statistical category.

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The Cowboys present a neutral matchup, but regardless, Ebron is a matchup-independent TE given his volume and red-zone role. I don’t understand why FanDuel’s algorithm hasn’t priced him up yet, but that just means we get to keep locking him into lineups.

FINAL THOUGHTS

  • Although there are no bye weeks, there are games on Saturday, so it feels like a bye week for the main slate. We’re missing a lot of offensive firepower, so cash lines could be lower.
  • I came across this great tweet from Jim Sannes about the hit rate on chalky RBs and WRs, which I recommend bookmarking and re-reading any time you are stuck on a roster construction decision.

HELPFUL LINKS

Below are links to the tools I use for my DFS research every week. Hopefully I am helping you learn how to use these tools so you can gain an edge and become a winning FanDuel player.

You can follow me @Michael_Dubner, where I’ll provide any updates to my FanDuel core throughout the weekend. Good luck everyone. I hope to see you all at the top of the leaderboards.

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