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Dynasty: Is Stedman Bailey a Bargain Waiting to Happen?

bailey_td_share

Using the college receiver app that I posted over the weekend you can sort and filter college receiver stats by a number of criteria including down, distance, opponent quality and yard line on the field.  I’ve been playing around with it a little over the past few days and figured I would bang out a quick post on WVU’s Stedman Bailey.

First, here are Bailey’s 2012 stats along with some other receivers who had very good college seasons and have gone on to have at least some (or a lot of) success in the NFL.

(PCT_YTG = Yards/Target divided by Yards to Go, TDRT = TD/Targets)

Player Tm SEAS TRG YDS YPT PCT_YTG TDS TDRT
Stedman Bailey West Virginia 2012 146 1627 11.14 1.30 25 0.17
Michael Crabtree Texas Tech 2007 182 1943 10.68 1.28 22 0.12
Justin Blackmon Oklahoma State 2010 148 1782 12.04 1.37 20 0.14
Dez Bryant Oklahoma State 2008 126 1480 11.75 1.34 19 0.15
Michael Crabtree Texas Tech 2008 146 1165 7.98 0.94 19 0.13
Justin Blackmon Oklahoma State 2011 160 1522 9.51 1.18 18 0.11
Austin Collie BYU 2008 151 1538 10.19 1.23 15 0.1
Calvin Johnson Georgia Tech 2006 138 1202 8.71 1.02 15 0.11
Golden Tate Notre Dame 2009 134 1496 11.16 1.16 15 0.11

 

Bailey is a small receiver, and much smaller than I typically like to roll with in fantasy football, but his smallish-ness didn’t prevent him from doing the thing that a lot of small receivers struggle with, which is catch touchdowns.

In fact, Bailey wasn’t just good at catching touchdowns, he was good at catching touchdowns in the red zone, and against high quality defenses.  If we use the receiver stat filter and throw out bottom 80th percentile defenses and look at only targets from inside the 15 yard line (a part of the field where smaller receivers tend to struggle), we see that Bailey converted 8 of his 10 targets in those situations into TDs.

Most of the formulaic projection systems for wide receivers will like Bailey because of his share of WVU yardage and touchdowns.  The graph at the top of the page shows Bailey’s share of WVU touchdowns.  Here’s a graph that shows his share of WVU receiving yards:

bailey_yd_share

I think if you’re looking for comparables for Bailey that match primarily his size and also red zone receiving ability, you might think of Santonio Holmes or Greg Jennings, who have both been above average red zone receivers for their size.  I think that you could also make the argument that Bailey fits into the Ted Thompson theory of drafting receivers, which seems to focus on finding under the radar guys that can be picked up in the 2nd round, but who posted a lot of touchdowns in college… that’s not to say that I think the Packers will draft Bailey.

Bailey will be an interesting name to watch during draft season because despite having a ridiculous college season, he may not be highly drafted.  If he isn’t highly drafted then he may fly under the radar in dynasty drafts, but that may also mean that he won’t get a lot of opportunities right out of the gate in 2013.  I would venture to guess that Bailey is going to offer dynasty value no matter where he’s selected in the draft.  But the amount of value he offers will come down to the situation he ends up in.

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