Josh Gordon Similarity Scores

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*The plot shows the distribution of fantasy point/game improvement for Josh Gordon similar receivers.

There’s a decent chance that all of the Josh Gordon fans in the fantasy writing community end up overhyping Gordon going into 2013, to the point that we all kill whatever excess value he might have for next year.  That’s probably a good reason to write less about Gordon… but… writing less about Gordon wouldn’t be any fun either and since when is fantasy sports about carrying yourself with a sense of sobriety?

Using the Custom Similarity Score tool posted last week, you can generate similarity scores for Gordon and then look at what the similar players did in the year after they were similar to Gordon.  I’ve done something a little bit different below by just posting the similar players’ Year over Year (YOY) improvement in several stat sheet categories in the year after they were similar to Gordon 2012.

YOY Change in Josh Gordon Comps in the Year Following Being Similar to Gordon 2012

TRGS RECS YDS TDS
Calvin Johnson 49% 53% 65% 178%
Andre Johnson 16% 20% 17% 52%
Braylon Edwards 32% 19% 8% 27%
Kenny Britt 33% 36% 51% 310%
Reggie Williams -30% -22% 9% 168%
Matt Jones -29% -37% -47% 6%
Derrius Thompson -40% -54% -56% -100%
Dwayne Bowe 34% 23% 3% 42%
Larry Fitzgerald 43% 78% 81% 24%
Pierre Garcon 29% 45% 7% 48%
Keary Colbert -44% -50% -65% -64%
Michael Crabtree 22% 42% 27% -29%
Plaxico Burress 20% 18% 31% 16%
Dez White 21% 3% -5% -20%
Demaryius Thomas 26% 84% 63% 55%
Median +22% +20% +9% +27%

 

I think those numbers fit with what we could reasonably expect from Gordon as a young receiver (he’ll be 22 next year) who had a highlight filled rookie year.  He’ll probably get more opportunities in the way of targets, he’ll be slightly less efficient with those opportunities in terms of yards/target, but also he has a lot to learn about being a red zone target, so you could expect him to improve his touchdown production.

There’s about a 0% chance that this will be the last time that I post on Josh Gordon before the 2013 season.  Actually, I’m going to try to get under five Josh Gordon posts before opening day.

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