revolutionary tools.  groundbreaking articles.  proven results.

What Have We Learned Thus Far?

800px-LT_Chargers

*LT regularly compiled over 370 touches per season as a Charger and yet somehow avoided the dreaded Curse.

The apps on this site should fall generally into two categories.  Some apps, like the Custom Similarity Scores tool will be aimed at giving you actionable fantasy intelligence.  But some apps, like the Curse of the 370 app, are meant to do something a little less straightforward.  They’re meant to teach something which can only be learned.  If I throw a graph up on the site and say “See, no curse!” it will have less staying power than if I throw up an app and let you figure it out for yourself.  So that’s why I say they’re meant to teach something which can only be learned.

Having said that, some people are lazy and would rather just have things spelled out for them and I can’t say I really blame them.  So from time to time I’ll come back and try to summarize things.

So what have we learned thus far?

The last half of the season doesn’t matter the most in terms of explaining next year fantasy results (for wide receivers anyway).  If you want the best shot at predicting next year fantasy results for receivers, you’re better off looking at a full season dataset.  The last half of the season does explain more than the first half of the season, so among season splits it’s the most explanatory, but still the full season is probably the best dataset to look at.  This even holds true if we’re trying to predict the performance of younger players.  But looking at younger players also unearthed another trend that should give us pause when trying to pick the next breakout star receiver.  Let’s take a look at the r^2 when we try to use prior year fantasy performance to predict next year performance for receivers up to age 25.

image

The r^2 is .33

Now let’s look at a similar sized group of receivers but at a different point in their career.  This is what happens when we filter by age 26-31.  You can see that the r^2 improves dramatically.

image

I can imagine a number of explanations for the fact that prior year results tend to explain more of next year results for the receivers that we would regard as being in their prime.  The younger receivers are probably less entrenched members of their own offenses.  Younger receivers that perform really well might be playing in offenses where there aren’t very many good options, which is to say that the offense itself might be bad and not very reliable.  Older receivers have probably learned a good amount about being a professional and keeping their bodies in good condition.  There might also be survivor bias at play here.  It could be the case that reliable receivers are the ones that stick around past age 25.

The Curse of the 370 May or May Not Exist

It’s possible to look at running backs who carry the ball 370 times and come away feeling like there must be diminishing returns for those running backs at some point.  For instance, look at the following graph which shows Season N carries on the X axis and Season N+1 Fantasy Points on the Y axis.  It looks like at 350 carries, running backs start to experience diminishing returns.

image

But there are a couple of problems here.  First, you can see that the number of observations greater than 370 aren’t very numerous.  That means we have to add randomness as a potential explanation for the so-called “Curse of 370”.  The other problem is that this graph only includes carries.  What if we include receptions also?  This is what the graph looks like:

image

You can see that the peak at 350 carries disappears, the peak shifts to about 390 total touches, and the drop-off becomes much less severe.  To make things even more problematic for the “Curse” is the fact that if we look at just players aged 25 and older, the peak/drop disappears entirely.

image

The Curse of the 370 may or may not be related to something that happens when running backs compile a lot of usage in one season.  But I would probably be skeptical of the curse given what happens when we look at total touches.  This might all be academic going forward though as Arian Foster might be one of the last tests of the Curse.  Foster’s 460 combined touches (including the playoffs) seem to be an outlier in a league moving towards more and more running back timeshares.

Find An article
Generic selectors
Exact matches only
Search in title
Search in content
Search in posts
Search in pages

recent and related...

in case you missed it...

Contract Year RBs: Fantasy Appeal of the Walk Year Stars

  We’re back again to offer our thoughts on prominent contract year players at one of the fantasy footballs most important positions, namely running back. Yes, I know the popular theory is that they don’t matter. But getting a good one can be the reason you take home a fantasy

Read More

3 Deep Sleepers RotoViz Likes More Than You

  Being player agnostic is one of the best edges you can find in fantasy football in 2019 — don’t fall in love with a player, fall in love with his price. With the suite of RotoViz tools, finding this year’s most mispriced players is easier than ever, so let’s

Read More

When The Devy Breaks: Mock Draft Breakdown

  Last week I took part in a devy mock draft hosted by Greg Brandt from over at Devy Watch. It was a 12-team, PPR scoring, non-Superflex draft with a player pool consisting of 2020, 2021, and 2022 eligible prospects. Two of my fellow RotoViz writers, Travis May and Matt

Read More
Connect
Support

rotovizmain@gmail.com

Sign-up today for our free Premium Email subscription!

© 2019 RotoViz. All rights Reserved.