I’ve coded up another app that will let you look at some similarity scores, with the focus going to quarterbacks this time around. One useful addition this time is that I’ve added a fantasy points/game projection in the 2nd tab (the N+1 tab). The projection is the average of the fantasy points scored in Season N+1 for the comparable group. I played around with the app briefly and noted that there are a few QBs at the top in the 19-20 ppg range and then a bunch of QBs in the 17-18 ppg range. If you want to customize the similarity scores you can throw out individual games by de-selecting the box for those games. For instance, projecting Colin Kaepernick would make more sense if you only look at games after he got the starting job. I looked at Matt Stafford briefly to see if it would matter if I took out his games against the tough defenses of the NFL West. It didn’t matter much.
As with the Similarity Score apps that covered other positions, there is a tab for graphs that will let you visualize the distribution of percent change in fantasy points per game YOY for the comparison group. It’s also worth noting that as you get to the ends of the performance spectrum, the number of true comparables becomes increasingly sparse.
Play around with the app, have fun, and see if you see something you didn’t notice before.
