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A Brief Comment on Mike Wallace to the Dolphins

According to ProFootballTalk, the Mike Wallace/Dolphins contract is essentially a 3 year, $37 million contract with team options for the additional years.  I thought it might be interesting to look at Wallace’s career trajectory in light of the fact that Wallace’s cap number will be $17 million next year (2014) and then $12 million the following year.  Wallace is going to be a 27 year old receiver who also happens to require 4.3 speed in order to get open.  So in 2015, the Dolphins will be on the hook for $12 million for a 29 year old speed receiver.  Makes sense.

Here are Wallace’s yards/reception and yards/target over his career:

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Then, it might be interesting to look at Wallace in terms of where he scores his fantasy points and whether he’s above or below average.  Here are some graphs that break down every target in Wallace’s career and whether it produced above or below average fantasy points.  This is what I call FPOP, or Fantasy Points Over Par.

image

Wallace has been wildly above average near the 50 yard line, which is where he often scores his long touchdowns from, and he’s been well below average in the red zone.  In 2012 he became less good from the middle of the field and less bad in the red zone (although still below average).  So he pretty much moved towards the average.

If there’s one thing that terrifies me about talking shit related to the Mike Wallace contract it’s that I do think Joe Philbin is a very good offensive coach and I like Ryan Tannehill quite a bit.  Also I could see the point that I am making here could get buried under a mountain of targets and while I’m screaming “But he was inefficient!,” Mike Wallace could be cashing a Pro Bowl bonus on that mountain of targets.

People who might respond and say “Yeah, but VJax.” would be overlooking that VJax hasn’t ever had a season of less than 15 YPR, and even last year at 29 years old he produced greater than 9 Y/T.  Also VJax has been as good in the red zone as Mike Wallace has been bad in that part of the field.

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