From a fantasy standpoint, drafting running backs has pretty much boiled down to the question “Is he going to get the ball?” and then depending on the answer to that question you can assign value to each RB. It’s fine to look at things like Speed Scores, but there are a lot of guys with great speed scores sitting on NFL benches. So the primary question is always related to opportunity and then a secondary question is what a guy can do with that usage. On an annual basis there might be one RB with low usage and high fantasy scoring, while there are usually 5-6 guys who pretty much suck as running backs, but score fantasy points anyway (Shonn Greene just began whistling nervously). Also, I would much rather know how many passes a guy caught in the year before I draft him than know his Speed Score.For the reasons that I lay out in the paragraph above, I really don’t get too involved in looking at college running backs because there just isn’t that much to do. I pay attention during the pre-season and then if I get a sense that a team intends to play a guy, I’ll draft him. This methodology worked out pretty well for Doug Martin last year and I thought it was going to work with David Wilson as well, even though he eventually ended up on my waiver wire when he just wasn’t getting on the field.
However, that doesn’t mean that we can’t look at this year’s rookie running back crop and try to establish some expectations. Today we’ll look at Alabama running back Eddie Lacy, who will probably be the first of the RBs taken in the draft. I have three names that he is roughly similar to in terms of size, speed, college production and strength of schedule. Also, I’ve just penciled in Lacy for a 4.6 40 time. I don’t think he’s actually run yet, for what it’s worth. Enjoy.
|Vick Ballard||219||4.65||2011||Mississippi State||14.8||91.46||6.16||0.77||1.54||14.38|
|Jonathan Dwyer||229||4.51||2009||Georgia Tech||17.6||106.77||6.03||1.08||0.38||2.85|