Terrance Williams is an example of a guy who has given me a good reason to go back and look at my WR model. I’m going to re-evaluate the model not because I don’t believe its output as it relates to Williams, but rather because he’s different enough from the WRs that have come before him to look at whether it makes sense to add a variable to the model. Williams is different because he’s old. He’ll be 24 years old when the season starts in the fall, which makes him about 6 months younger than Julio Jones. That will also make him significantly older than Josh Gordon. While Williams’ onfield production might look great if we’re following our guidelines related to Market Share production numbers, we do have to wonder whether he might have had an unfair advantage.
In any case, here are some names that are similar to Williams with the caveat that the most impressive names on the list (Nicks and Nelson) were playing in the NFL at the ages of 21 and 23 respectively. That means that they put up the dominant college seasons shown at the ages of 20 and 22, and I think it’s problematic to compare them to Williams (even though I haven’t taken the liberty of deleting their names from the list). A reasonable question to ask is how many pro prospects could put up a season like Williams did this year, if they played at 23 years old.. and I think the answer to that question is probably “a lot.”
|Mike Hass-Oregon State||2005||208||4.59||0.36||11||0.48||0.5||139.27||0.55||17.02|
|Jerricho Cotchery-North Carolina State||2003||212||4.54||0.66||13||0.3||0.29||105.31||0.77||15.92|
|B.J. Cunningham-Michigan State||2011||211||4.59||(0.12)||13||0.39||0.5||100.46||0.92||16.53|
|Hakeem Nicks-North Carolina||2008||212||4.51||0.19||13||0.49||0.6||94||0.92||17.97|
|Jordy Nelson-Kansas State||2007||217||4.51||–||12||0.48||0.55||133.83||0.92||13.16|
|Maurice Stovall-Notre Dame||2005||217||4.57||1.10||12||0.29||0.34||95.75||0.92||16.65|