Upside Scores for the 2013 WR Class

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As picks are coming off the board on Day 2 of the 2013 NFL I thought it might be interesting to show how they ranked on my “upside” metric.   Most of these guys have a shot to be selected in the 33 – 96 range (some already have!) and I threw in Chad Bumphis even though he probably won’t go in that range, because don’t we all want to know where we could end up if we get on the Bumphiswagon?

As I mentioned in my articles about the potential upside of Mark Harrison and Marcus Davis – some late round fliers with beastly Physical Scores – I use a Similarity Score approach.  I look at 15 NFL players who finished at least one season as a top 60 WR and had similar college seasons (with respect to Dominator Rating and YPR) to my subjects. I take the best NFL positional finish of those 15 players and average them together for an NBR (NFL Best Rank) score. Generally, any NBR under 20 is elite; 20 – 25 is above average; and beyond 25 it starts to degrade with anything over 30 being a bad sign.

Note that unlike most of the models used by other writers here at RotoViz, my upside analysis does not control for the physical attributes of the player. Ultimately, a model that incorporates some measurement of a player’s size and athleticism in addition to college production is probably a better way to project and therefore rank players. But, I think my upside measurement is a way to look at these players from a slightly different angle and may be useful when trying to decide between two players that may be close in your rankings. 

Without further ado, the 2013 class sorted on NBR: 

Player

Year

School

Rec

Yds

TD

YPR

DR

NBR

Da’Rick Rogers

2011

Tennessee

67

1040

9

15.5

0.43

Rogers Avg

70.5

1108.1

10.3

15.7

0.41

21.9

Chad Bumphis

2012

Mississippi State

58

922

12

15.9

0.36

Bumphis Avg

70.2

1115.8

9.5

15.9

0.35

24.5

Terrance Williams

2012

Baylor

97

1832

12

18.9

0.38

Williams Avg

60.7

1074.8

9.3

17.8

0.38

24.6

Marquess Wilson

2012

Washington State

52

813

5

15.6

0.21

Wilson Avg

42.3

661.3

4.8

15.7

0.21

26.1

Stedman Bailey

2012

West Virginia

114

1622

25

14.2

0.47

Bailey Avg

77.8

1106.7

10.7

14.2

0.41

28.5

Robert Woods

2011

Southern California

111

1292

15

11.6

0.37

Woods Avg

81.9

998.2

9.9

12.2

0.35

28.7

Tavon Austin

2012

West Virginia

114

1289

12

11.3

0.29

Austin Avg

76.3

889.7

8.3

11.7

0.28

28.9

Quinton Patton

2012

Louisiana Tech

104

1392

13

13.4

0.36

Patton Avg

75.7

1020.5

9.4

13.6

0.37

29.1

Markus Wheaton

2012

Oregon State

91

1244

11

13.7

0.36

Wheaton Avg

78.7

1089.1

9.7

13.9

0.36

30.5

Keenan Allen

2012

California

61

737

6

12.1

0.38

Allen Avg

85.9

1072.8

11.0

12.4

0.35

30.9

Justin Hunter

2012

Tennessee

73

1083

9

14.8

0.27

Hunter Avg

52.6

798.1

6.5

15.2

0.27

32.0

Cordarrelle Patterson

2012

Tennessee

46

778

5

16.9

0.17

Patterson Avg

39.7

618.3

4.3

15.7

0.17

32.3

Ryan Swope

2012

Texas A&M

72

913

8

12.7

0.25

Swope Avg

67.5

864.9

7.6

12.9

0.25

34.3

Robert Woods

2012

Southern California

74

849

11

11.5

0.26

Woods Avg

69.7

837.9

7.3

12.0

0.26

34.7

Aaron Dobson

2012

Marshall

57

679

3

11.9

0.11

Dobson Avg

35.7

425.2

2.4

12.0

0.12

36.7

Chris Harper

2012

Kansas State

57

848

3

14.9

0.25

Harper Avg

53.7

763.3

6.7

14.3

0.25

37.1

I wouldn’t recommend using this as your only source of rookie rankings – this is much better – but I think it’s an interesting way to look at their upside.

A few notes: 

Chad Bumphis!!  Wow!!

I included Robert Woods’ 2011 numbers just for fun since he seemed to be more dominant before Marquise Lee broke out.

I included Da’Rick Rogers 2011 season because I didn’t have this Tennessee Tech numbers readily available.

I don’t adjust the DRs of Austin or Patterson to account for any rushing, so what you get is what you get.

 

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