My approach is driven by identifying, before the fantasy draft, the guys that I’ll be picking during the actual draft. If all goes well I look back at my team after the draft and I got all my guys. To illustrate this strategy I’m going to give you 10 re-draft ideas in 10 days. These should all be guys that can be drafted at a discount to their inherent value. When we’re talking about predicting the future, “inherent value” probably means that in my list of 10 guys, 6 of them should outproduce their ADP, 2 will be equal to their ADP and maybe 2 will underperform their ADP. I’m using the term inherent value, but really I’m talking about stacking the odds in your favor.
Idea #1 – Marques Colston
Marques Colston is like that Toyota Camry with 150,000 miles that you’re going to keep driving until the wheels fall off because it’s paid for and it still drives well. Colston was available at WR16 in ADP last year, had another 1,000/10 season and he’s available at WR16 again. He’s the gift that keeps on giving. Colston had the same season as Julio Jones last year and did it with a bad foot for most of the season. Hell he might have a bad foot again this year, his body seems to be held together by duct tape and baling twine at this point. For what it’s worth, here is a table comparing Colston to Julio for the 2012 season:
Even though Julio is only going 11 WR ADP spots in front of Colston, that’s actually going to be about 2 rounds in a 12 team league.
The knock against Colston will come from those who say that you’ll never win your league with boring guys like Marques Colston. Oh really? You can’t win your league if you pick up a guy in the part of the draft where people are taking 2nd wide receivers and that guy ends up performing line a #1 WR? Seriously, what kind of upside are people hoping for when they take receivers ahead of Marques Colston? There’s a logical breakdown that occurs when people go “I don’t want to take Marques Colston. He’s boring. If I take Percy Harvin, he might have a season as good as Marques Colston always does.”
Last year was the first time that Harvin eclipsed Colston’s career low in receiving yards per game (67 yrds/g). Colston also has more than 1.5X the touchdowns that Harvin does during the time that Harvin has been in the league. Harvin’s best receiving TD total for a season is pretty close to Colston’s worst (6 for Harvin’s best, 5 for Colston’s worst).
Here is Marques Colston’s career production table. While you keep taking your high upside guys, Marques Colston keeps banging out 1000 yard seasons.
Is Marques Colston a better receiver than Percy Harvin or Julio Jones? Who cares. It doesn’t matter. The discount you’re getting makes it irrelevant. What I’m arguing is that Colston’s odds of outperforming either guy are not properly reflected by the current market valuation.
Marques Colston is idea #1. Nine more to follow.