I was messing around with my database earlier today when I realized that without much additional work I could spit out a group of WRs to watch for. To be clear, some of these guys are already on your radar as guys that you liked coming out of college, but like I said, this took minimal effort so I wanted to post it. The list below goes back to the 2000 season and filters out guys that don’t meet the following criteria:
- Over 30% of college team yards in final college season (msYDS)
- Over 30% of college team touchdowns in final season
- Under 4.5 40 yard dash
- Over 200 pounds
For the record, I think the world is more linear than would be implied by this list which is very threshold driven, but that doesn’t mean that the list can’t be valuable.
I’ve marked with Xs the guys that have already broken out (read: aren’t undervalued to their potential any more). Of the guys that haven’t broken out, if they’ve been in the league for fewer than 3 years, there’s probably still some potential there (i.e. I’m not still waiting for Devin Thomas to break out). I would even include Jon Baldwin in that statement. Compared to his draft value, his ceiling is pretty high. It’s also interesting to see that Corey Fuller is the only guy from the 2013 rookie class on the list. Perhaps more support for the case that Shawn Siegele made here.
This is also probably a case of trying to overfit the data, but if you removed guys that averaged fewer than 13 yards/reception that would also make the hit rate higher for the guys that have been in the league for some time (this would remove Michael Floyd and Justin Blackmon from the watch list).
As a general rule, the more reasons that you have to suspect that a player won’t break out, the cheaper that you should have to get them to justify taking a flier on them.
|Season||Name/School||Value Realized?||WT||40 Time||msYDS||msTD||YPG||TDPG||YPR|
|2012||Corey Fuller-Virginia Tech||204.00||4.43||0.31||0.46||67.92||0.50||18.95|
|2011||Justin Blackmon-Oklahoma State||207.00||4.46||0.31||0.45||117.08||1.38||12.58|
|2011||Michael Floyd-Notre Dame||220.00||4.47||0.35||0.43||88.23||0.69||11.47|
|2011||Alshon Jeffery-South Carolina||216.00||4.48||0.34||0.42||58.62||0.62||15.55|
|2011||Stephen Hill-Georgia Tech||215.00||4.34||0.48||0.56||68.00||0.42||30.22|
|2010||Leonard Hankerson-Miami (FL)||209.00||4.40||0.38||0.62||88.92||1.00||16.06|
|2009||Blair White-Michigan State||209.00||4.49||0.32||0.39||81.83||0.75||14.23|
|2009||Demaryius Thomas-Georgia Tech||x||224.00||4.38||0.66||0.73||88.77||0.62||25.09|
|2007||Devin Thomas-Michigan State||215.00||4.40||0.45||0.42||96.92||0.62||15.95|
|2007||Darius Reynaud-West Virginia||201.00||4.48||0.36||0.75||56.38||0.92||11.45|
|2006||Calvin Johnson-Georgia Tech||x||239.00||4.35||0.54||0.63||92.46||1.15||15.82|
|2006||Mike Walker-Central Florida||209.00||4.35||0.42||0.50||98.17||0.58||13.09|
|2004||Troy Williamson-South Carolina||203.00||4.32||0.40||0.64||83.50||0.70||19.42|
|2003||Rashaun Woods-Oklahoma State||202.00||4.47||0.55||0.75||105.15||1.15||17.75|
|2002||Tyrone Calico-Middle Tennessee State||223.00||4.34||0.35||0.67||54.73||0.36||13.68|
|2001||Javon Walker-Florida State||x||210.00||4.38||0.33||0.30||85.82||0.64||20.98|
|2000||Quincy Morgan-Kansas State||211.00||4.48||0.43||0.74||89.69||1.08||18.22|
|2000||Robert Ferguson-Texas A&M||205.00||4.48||0.42||0.63||97.67||0.56||15.42|
|2000||Emmett Johnson-Virginia Tech||205.00||4.45||0.34||0.33||52.18||0.27||16.88|