I purposely wrote the WR and RB portions of the series first because I think QB and TE are just much harder. I don’t think we know a lot about projecting QBs (we might know just a little) and TEs don’t tend to produce right away, so I think they matter less. But there are some dynasty nuggets in this year’s draft class primarily I think because of how the QBs ended up falling. Both Geno Smith and EJ Manuel probably represent at least a little value in rookie drafts.
In the table below I have some comments for each player along with links to the articles that helped shape my thinking.
|1||16||EJ Manuel||BUF||Florida St.||EJ Manuel, Rare Attributes, and the NFL Draft – Geno Smith, EJ Manuel and Managing Reward – EJ Manuel Comparables||Manuel is one of the QBs in this class that will have near term dynasty value. I think given BUF’s selection, we can assume that they are bullish on his prospects. The only question then is when Manuel will get his shot. The logical side of me would say that it would have been tough for BUF to choose the guy most considered the #2 QB, if they weren’t really scared of missing out on him. So how long will Kevin Kolb have before Manuel replaces him? I’m setting the over/under at Week 4 – 2013.|
|2||39||Geno Smith||NYJ||West Virginia||Geno Smith, EJ Manuel and Managing Reward – Geno Smith Comparables – Is Geno a Lost Cause as a Runner?||My favorite part of the post-draft Geno Smith character assassination is that people think it matters for some reason. In order to believe that any of the things being said about Smith matter, you have to ignore that the Cam Newton pre-draft character assassination turned out to be right on, and yet didn’t have any impact on Newton’s prospects as a pro. Newton has been outstanding. So right now the character assassinators are doing dynasty owners a big favor because they can get the guy most regarded as the top QB, but get him in the 2nd round.|
|3||73||Mike Glennon||TAM||North Carolina St.||Please Arizona Cardinals, Do Not Draft Mike Glennon||Tampa is looking to hedge their position with Josh Freeman here, but they’re not going to cut bait from Freeman any time soon. This is a watch/wait type of situation. Even if Glennon does get a shot, I don’t think anyone at RotoViz is particularly optimistic.|
|4||98||Matt Barkley||PHI||USC||Dynasty: Is Matt Barkley a Buying Opportunity – Matt Barkley and QB Readiness – Matt Barkley and the CFB Stat Filter||Matthew Freedman has written about Barkley and his Lewin Forecast that Football Outsiders has projected. Unfortunately, I think that the LCF doesn’t actually claim to forecast players not picked in the first three rounds, so I’m not sure if Barkley’s LCF applies. I think you can imagine a scenario where the QB competition this year is between Nick Foles and Mike Vick, and then between Foles and Barkley next year. I don’t see a lot to love based on that assumption. It amounts to a “maybe someday” kind of outlook for Barkley.|
|4||110||Ryan Nassib||NYG||Syracuse||Is Ryan Nassib a Career Backup? – Ryan Nassib Comparables||I believe that Jon Moore was the only person pre-draft sayng that Nassib was probably a back-up QB. So chalk one up for box score scouting as a number of the media scouts had Nassib as the top QB in the draft. Nassib has no dynasty value in the near term.|
|4||112||Tyler Wilson||OAK||Arkansas||Tyler Wilson and the Case of the Old QB||I own Denarius Moore in a dynasty league, so I’m hoping that the QB situation in OAK doesn’t amount to a greasefire this year… but I kind of think it probably will. I could see Flynn starting the season only to be replaced by Wilson, who could then be replaced again by Flynn. Basically Arizona Cardinals 2.0|
|4||115||Landry Jones||PIT||Oklahoma||Landry Jones, Philip Rivers and the LCF||Big Ben has been known to miss games, so Jones may end up on the field at some point. He has no dynasty value.|
|7||221||Brad Sorensen||SDG||Southern Utah||Excuse me while I google Brad Sorenson|
|7||234||Zac Dysert||DEN||Miami (OH)||Zac Dysert – Good Jay Cutler or Bad Jay Cutler? – Ranking the 2013 Class on One Predictive Measure||Maybe a little disappointing to see Dysert end up in DEN if for no other reason than I would have liked to see if there’s anything to my INT rate metric that Dysert did well on. Oh well. Dysert and Brock Osweiler are both behind Manning for now. Dysert doesn’t have any dynasty value.|
|7||237||B.J. Daniels||SFO||South Florida|
|7||249||Sean Renfree||ATL||Duke||I like Renfree if for no other reason than I think it’s hilarious when people automatically equate white QBs with being pro-style offense ready… even when the white QB ran spread in college, which Renfree did. How long do you think I’ll have to look to find scouting reports calling white spread QBs “pro-style ready” and then find another article saying that a black spread QB will need time to adjust to a pro offense? Don’t get me wrong, I’m as much a fan of lazy race based football analysis as the next guy… wait a minute, that came out wrong.|