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Multi-Year Dynasty Projections – Wide Receiver Edition

newton

Sir Isaac Newton developed the Universal Law of Gravitation and he also looked like he could have been a member of the band “Firehouse.”

The laws of gravity are more complicated than “what goes up must come down” but for our purposes today we’ll just pretend that the laws of gravity are that simple. As it relates to fantasy football players, over time the expectation is that all players are heading towards zero production. That’s gravity pulling the player down to earth.

Below I have a table for wide receivers that is similar to the table published yesterday for running backs. It shows multi-year expectations for PPR scoring. If you were to visualize that information, you would see that in most cases the projection just heads south. That doesn’t always happen, but that’s the broad expectation. Future year production is basically a function of a player’s most recent season and then the player’s age. The greater the fantasy production in the most recent year, and the younger the player, the greater the future production value. For more information on how these projections were arrived at, I would encourage you to read the RB installment of this series. Without further ado, here is the table.

*Following the table I have some general notes.

Name – Age (during 2012 season) 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Total NPV
Dez Bryant – 24 14.55 15.13 14.72 13.75 10.77 11.11 9.75 89.78 42.98
Demaryius Thomas – 25 14.78 14.68 15.1 13.72 11.33 9.84 7.12 86.57 42.36
A.J. Green – 24 15.77 14.72 14.01 11.55 9.45 7.89 8.99 82.38 40.99
Julio Jones – 23 13.7 14.6 14.9 14.46 10.25 8.77 6.01 82.69 40.77
Brandon Marshall – 28 16.62 15.47 14.14 11.16 10.01 7.04 2.39 76.83 40.63
Calvin Johnson – 27 14.92 14.07 11.73 12.27 11.02 8.85 0 72.86 37.90
Marques Colston – 29 15.25 14.8 13.34 11.16 10.33 5.41 0 70.29 37.88
Eric Decker – 25 14.3 13.66 13.01 11.15 9.29 7.1 3.24 71.75 37.00
Michael Crabtree – 25 13.69 13.88 11.99 10.7 9.89 8.26 3.83 72.24 36.57
Steve Johnson – 26 13.43 12.54 10.75 11.53 8.8 4.54 0 61.59 33.07
Vincent Jackson – 29 13.81 13.73 11.18 10 5.29 4.8 0 58.81 32.65
Josh Gordon – 21 11.82 11.26 11.66 10 9.33 7.04 3.01 64.12 32.26
Victor Cruz – 26 12.93 13.56 11.85 8.38 7.67 4.34 0 58.73 32.17
Roddy White – 31 14.04 13.21 11.7 11.58 4.35 1.01 0 55.89 32.11
Jeremy Maclin – 24 11.97 10.86 10.65 9.04 8.94 5.02 6.92 63.40 31.38
Randall Cobb – 22 11.84 10.29 10.88 8.12 8.48 7.75 6.87 64.23 31.21
Torrey Smith – 23 11.19 10.49 10.57 10.62 8.94 7.08 3.2 62.09 30.88
Denarius Moore – 24 11.83 10.82 9.64 9.04 8.94 4.79 5.62 60.68 30.39
Cecil Shorts – 25 12.84 12.39 10.16 10.26 6.61 0 0 52.26 29.77
Andre Johnson – 31 12.37 12.68 11.68 9.98 4.04 0 0 50.75 29.40
Wes Welker – 31 13.05 12.46 10.89 9.82 4.04 0 0 50.26 29.34
Mike Williams – 25 11.18 11.96 9.43 8.42 6.29 4.92 3.44 55.64 28.95
Golden Tate – 24 11.46 8.84 9.01 9.57 9.27 5.22 5.62 58.99 28.94
Danario Alexander – 26 12.87 11.62 9.42 9.21 3.98 0 0 47.10 27.63
Justin Blackmon – 22 10.48 10.47 8.48 9.43 6.88 3.72 2.63 52.09 27.07
T.Y. Hilton – 23 10.73 8.13 10.18 8.16 8.63 5.96 .64 52.43 26.87
Percy Harvin – 24 12.63 9.87 7.49 6.77 6.66 5.44 0 48.86 26.64
Jordy Nelson – 27 12.41 10.75 9.5 7.3 5.09 0 0 45.05 26.33
Brandon Gibson – 25 9.26 6.81 9.02 9.4 7.53 4.84 4.1 50.96 24.83
Pierre Garcon – 26 12.82 9.37 9.43 7.04 1.52 0 0 40.18 24.46
James Jones – 28 12.7 11.26 9.57 5.21 0 0 0 38.74 24.40
Antonio Brown – 26 10.48 10.2 8.84 7.29 4 1.23 0 42.04 24.06
Andre Roberts – 24 10.64 7.47 6.4 7.35 8.87 3.25 2.69 46.67 23.90
Mike Wallace – 26 10.81 10.04 8.82 6.58 4.75 0 0 41.00 23.84
Chris Givens – 23 9.37 9.35 8.58 8.03 2.93 5.58 0 43.84 23.58
Miles Austin – 28 10.65 11.43 8.26 5.62 0 0 0 35.96 22.37
Hakeem Nicks – 24 11.17 9.77 9.87 4.32 .56 0 0 35.69 22.20
Lance Moore – 29 10.73 9.45 8.98 7.01 0 0 0 36.17 22.10
Kendall Wright – 23 8.68 8.78 6.25 6.07 7.22 2.99 1.19 41.18 21.65
Jeremy Kerley – 24 8.63 8.98 8.11 6.09 4.45 1.03 0 37.29 21.03
Sidney Rice – 26 10.18 9.31 7.13 3.8 2.31 0 0 32.73 20.07
Darren Sproles – 29 11.17 7.53 7.87 3.73 0 0 0 30.30 19.31
Kenny Britt – 24 8.07 7.39 6.22 5.06 5.24 2.81 0 34.79 18.90
Brian Hartline – 26 9.59 8.68 8.38 2.59 0 0 0 29.24 18.58
Dwayne Bowe – 28 9.13 8.81 6.89 4.39 0 0 0 29.22 18.27
Davone Bess – 27 9.38 8.86 6.77 3.02 0 0 0 28.03 17.88
Greg Little – 23 8.14 6.67 6.61 4.57 4.38 1.26 0 31.63 17.80
Emmanuel Sanders – 25 7.62 7.73 7.6 5.32 1.56 0 0 29.83 17.62
Darrius Heyward-Bey – 25 8.71 6.84 6.75 3.84 1.77 1.8 0 29.71 17.43
Reggie Wayne – 34 11.98 9.02 3.99 0 0 0 0 24.99 17.40
Brandon LaFell – 26 9.18 7.53 6.94 2.54 0 0 0 26.19 16.76
Danny Amendola – 27 7.89 7.65 6.61 3.39 0 0 0 25.54 15.98
Anquan Boldin – 32 11.11 7.3 3.65 0 0 0 0 22.06 15.43
Steve Smith – 33 10.89 8.05 2.82 0 0 0 0 21.76 15.31
Nate Washington – 29 9.27 7.96 5.4 0 0 0 0 22.63 15.28
DeSean Jackson – 26 7.58 7.67 6.27 2.3 0 0 0 23.82 15.13
Titus Young – 23 8.28 7.98 4.8 1.49 0 0 0 22.55 14.80
Larry Fitzgerald – 29 9.14 6.51 5.84 0 0 0 0 21.49 14.47
Santonio Holmes – 28 9.11 5.98 6.12 0 0 0 0 21.21 14.25
Donnie Avery – 28 7.99 6.33 5.4 .35 0 0 0 20.07 13.35
Jarius Wright – 23 7 6.3 5.22 0 0 0 0 18.52 12.30
Braylon Edwards – 29 7.21 6.28 3.48 0 0 0 0 16.97 11.57
Brandon Lloyd – 31 8.31 6.11 1.8 0 0 0 0 16.22 11.48
Malcom Floyd – 31 9.45 5.25 0 0 0 0 0 14.70 10.92
Greg Jennings – 29 8.96 5.7 0 0 0 0 0 14.66 10.82
Domenik Hixon – 28 7.77 4.62 .64 0 0 0 0 13.03 9.50
Armon Binns – 23 5.63 4.1 1.97 0 0 0 0 11.70 8.14
Jason Avant – 29 7.21 1.99 0 0 0 0 0 9.20 7.04
Nate Burleson – 31 3.63 3.83 0 0 0 0 0 7.46 5.36

Notes:

  • The timeline in this table is probably on the ridiculous side. It’s really silly to forecast out seven years. But the reason I did that is because I wanted to illustrate that even though the RB and WR methodology is the same, it takes longer for WRs to hit zero production.
  • I think the thing that most people would have issue with is Larry Fitzgerald’s projection. First let me say that critics might be right to say it’s way off. But I think the devil’s advocate position might be that Fitz is turning 30 and just had a horrendous season. A good amount of that is QB related, but some amount of it could be age related. In any case, while I think the projection is probably on the low side, I would never be the highest on Fitz and therefore probably won’t own him for the rest of his career. I feel like this is worth an article, so stay tuned.
  • Josh Gordon leads the way among the under-23 group of WRs. I’m really kicking myself for thinking I could grab him a round or two later in @RotoPat’s league. Kudos to @RumfordJohnny for pulling the trigger in the round that still reflected value for Gordon (end of round four – 14 teams).
  • Pretty much any of the guys that might seem to be forecast on the low side could have a bounce-back year and change their future prospects. What this analysis is saying is that sometimes that bounce-back happens and sometimes it doesn’t. The median expectation is that things will keep heading lower from where they were last year. To think about this another way, try to name a few players in this table that you think are too low. Then, among those players keep track as to how many actually out-produce the projection. It probably won’t be as many as you think.

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