Reggie Wayne provided great return to fantasy owners last year, but he did it mostly on compiling a shit ton of targets. To get some sense as to Wayne’s reliance on targets for his scoring, consider that TY Hilton saw less than half of the per game targets that Wayne did, yet Hilton managed to gain 67% of Wayne’s yardage.
The graph below is based on my measure FPOP, or Fantasy Points Over Par, which is an efficiency measure. It’s kind of like fantasy points/target if you also adjusted for the yard line of the line of scrimmage. FPOP measures how many points a player scored when compared to the average based on a target from that yard line. Wayne’s FPOP has been in decline pretty much since 2007. He was pretty efficient then, so he had a good distance to go before the number turned negative, but it’s been negative for each of the last three years. To translate that, if just an average receiver were to see the same number of targets as Wayne, they would be likely to score more fantasy points. My multi-year dynasty projections forecast one more year of WR2-ish scoring for Wayne and then a drop after that. Wayne’s efficiency trajectory would seem to back up that projection.
Reggie Wayne FPOP by Season