The Hangover: Revisiting the 2 Mugs Podcast

The guys from 2 Mugs were kind enough to have me on their podcast last night.  It was a ton of fun and you should really consider subscribing to their iTunes station.  In any case, there were a few things that weren’t in the conversation that would really supplement your listening experience, so think of this as the visual accompaniment.

Top dynasty rookie wide receivers

  1. DeAndre Hopkins, Texans
  2. Tavon Austin, Rams
  3. Robert Woods, Bills
  4. Stedman Bailey, Rams
  5. Markus Wheaton, Steelers
  6. Justin Hunter, Titans
  7. Cordarrelle Patterson, Vikings
  8. Terrance Williams, Cowboys
  9. Keenan Allen, Chargers
  10. Kenny Stills, Saints

These have fluctuated a bit from the pre-draft rankings, so you’re encouraged to check those out too.

The “Eric Decker factor

What the hell is the “Eric Decker factor”?  Well, did you ever hear of the 26-27-60 “rule” for scouting quarterbacks?  Well, this is kind of like that, but for wide receivers.  Here are the criteria with a brief explanation

  • 30% Market Share of Yards
  • 40% Market Share of Touchdowns
  • 9.5 yards per target
  • 35% Red Zone TD Rate

The market share numbers originated during my pre-RotoViz days.  Intuitively, these numbers make sense because on any given play a team has five receiving options.  If the quarterback distributes the ball evenly, they’d all have 20% market share of everything.  When you really get down to it though, you want a guy who a quarterback is targeting more than everyone else, usually because he is more talented.  If you’re not a #1 receiver on your own college team, how will you ever be a #1 in the NFL?  The YPT makes sense from the perspective of “for every time I throw the ball to this receiver, there’s a pretty good chance he’ll get us a first down, or close to it”.  Finally, think of the red zone TD rate from the perspective of it being first and goal and you get three chances to throw the ball to your favorite receiver.  He should catch one of those three (33%) right?

Here’s the list of all drafted players since 2005 that have passed the Decker test.  And if you want to run your own experiments, feel free to play around with this app.

TRGNAME Draft Selection Best Fantasy Season Assessment
Dwayne Bowe 23 2 Success
Jordy Nelson 36 2 Success
Brandon Marshall 119 2 Success
Dez Bryant 24 3 Success
Hakeem Nicks 29 8 Success
Sidney Rice 44 8 Success
Eric Decker 87 8 Success
Torrey Smith 58 23 Wait & See
Justin Blackmon 5 28 Wait & See
Jordan Shipley 84 57 Bust (age)
Leonard Hankerson 79 63 Wait & See
Aldrick Robinson 178 92 Wait & See
Johnnie Lee Higgins 99 93 Bust
Jarett Dillard 144 104 Bust
Marcus Easley 107 214 Bust (medical)
DeAndre Hopkins 27 ? Wait & See
Stedman Bailey 92 ? Wait & See
Dennis Morris (TE) 174 x Bust
Tommy Streeter 198 x Wait & See
Jeremy Ebert 235 x Wait & See

In case you missed it, DeAndre Hopkins and Stedman Bailey both passed the Decker test. This is your warning.  Buy some shares.

A couple guys with Wait & See designations dominated the next portion of our conversation.  If you want to read more about Leonard Hankerson or Aldrick Robinson, check out the links.  Also, stay tuned for the goods on Tommy Streeter.

Related to our “rookie studs” conversation, it’s interesting to note that in 2011 Hankerson became the first rookie Redskins WR to go over 100 yards in a game since 2001.  Unfortunately, he was also injured in that game and missed the rest of the season.

Da’Rick Rogers v. Marquise Goodwin 

I am infinitely more interested in Rogers.  If you check out Goodwin’s comps, you’ll see why there’s not much reason to be excited.  Also, you’ve got to factor in the Buffalo weather and the who-knows-what kind of QB play he’ll get from Kolb or E.J. Manuel.

Sleeper rookie Tight Ends

Fun fact: all three of these guys were born within five days of each other in January 1990.

Ryan Griffin, Texans:  Griffin caught 60% of his team’s touchdowns in 2012.  Less than 1% of college players have accomplished that feat since 2005.  That is really good and the Texans’ TE stable loses Graham after this year and Owen Daniels after next.

Luke Willson, Seahawks:  You want to know why the Seahawks are KILLING IT right now?  Check this table which compares trendy NFC west tight ends Jared Cook and Rob Housler to rookie Luke Willson.  The Seahawks are getting rare physical attributes several rounds later, or far cheaper, than their division rivals.

Player Draft (cost) Ht Wt 40yd Bench V Jump B Jump Shuttle 3 Cone
Jared Cook 89 (5/$35M) 76.8 246 4.49 23 41 123 4.56 7.25
Luke Willson 158 77.4 251 4.51 23 38 122 4.29 7.08
Rob Housler 69 77.4 248 4.46 22 37 117 4.21 6.9

Joseph Fauria, Lions: has him physically comparable to Gronk, Jimmy Graham, Kevin Boss, and Martellus Bennett.  That is all.

2013 WR Sleepers

It was really interesting to hear Ryan Forbes select Rod Streater and Santonio Holmes as sleepers.  Although I didn’t end up making them my final selections, I had Juron Criner and Stephen Hill on my list too.  Funny how we viewed the Raiders and Jets situations as ones with not-sexy fantasy upside.  The guy I did pick was TY Hilton who had an awesome rookie season and has room to increase his role.

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