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Breaking Down Andy Dalton’s Pass Targets, Subtitle: I May Have Ginger Fever


The title of this article is maybe a little misleading. I don’t actually have Ginger Fever. Or at least not for Andy Dalton. Now Christina Hendricks on the other hand… moving on.

The table below is from the app that I posted yesterday and breaks up Andy Dalton’s targets as a pro, based on who he was throwing to.

Andy Dalton A.J. Green WR 272 158 2279 16 9 8.07
Andy Dalton Jermaine Gresham TE 184 119 1311 11 1 8.08
Andy Dalton Andrew Hawkins WR 113 73 790 4 4 6.11
Andy Dalton Jerome Simpson WR 101 49 720 4 1 7.48
Andy Dalton Andre Caldwell WR 67 37 317 3 7 0.93
Andy Dalton Brian Leonard RB 44 31 252 0 0 5.73
Andy Dalton BenJarvus Green-Ellis RB 30 22 104 0 1 1.97
Andy Dalton Marvin Jones WR 30 17 195 1 1 5.67
Andy Dalton Armon Binns WR 29 18 210 1 0 7.93
Andy Dalton Mohamed Sanu WR 25 16 154 4 0 9.36

AYA = (Yards + TD*20 – INT*45)/ATTS

AYA is a stat from Pro Football Reference and it’s highly correlated with winning in the NFL.

You can see that there are reasons to be excited for Dalton’s prospects. He’s been good throwing to all of the following receivers: AJ Green, Jermaine Gresham, Mohamed Sanu (on a small sample). These numbers go back to Dalton’s rookie year.  You can also see from the table that there have been some problem areas too. Passes to running backs tend to produce lower AYA, but that’s especially been the case with Dalton. Throwing the ball into the turf wouldn’t have had a much different impact than throwing it to the Law Firm, whose targets produced 1.97 AYA.

The room for optimism as it relates to Dalton comes from the following things:

I’m not an unbiased party in this article. I own Dalton in a couple of leagues, but I own Dalton because I like his chances… rather than the other way around.

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