So by now you probably know the RotoViz Dynasty startup is in full swing. My dynasty squads tend to be extremely youth-oriented, perhaps to the point of detriment. Most of us have a pretty good idea of when individuals came into the league, but sometimes their ages at arrival are pretty surprising. When guys are far younger or far older than perception, it does impact their potential upsides and the likely number of years they’ll be available to your squad.
Don’t overreact to his information. It’s just a small but interesting piece of the overall evaluative framework.
Most of the players I’ve paired together are of similar ages. In each case, I would have guessed one player was significantly younger/older than the other. (Ages are of Sept. 1 this year.)
WR Age and Dynasty Value
Sidney Rice (27) is younger than Mike Wallace (27), Pierre Garcon (27), and Stevie Johnson (27). In truth, all of these guys are almost the exact same age, as is Victor Cruz (26). The key point here is probably that all of these receivers are a little older than you might think. RotoViz has never been a Wallace fan. Meanwhile Garcon and Johnson are constantly dealing with nagging injuries. Victor Cruz seems poised to lose a lot of value to another Giants receiver . . .
Rueben Randle (22) was born a couple months after Tavon Austin (22) and Cordarrelle Patterson (22). Jon Moore has been writing an excellent series on 2nd Year Wide Receivers, and he points out how Randle posted strong peripherals despite playing for a run-oriented team in the brutal SEC. When it comes to value over ADP, we have a lot of information suggesting the younger guys represent better breakout candidates. Randle should be a priority target in dynasty leagues and makes a good sleeper in redraft formats.
Most already know that Hakeem Nicks (25) is younger than Victor Cruz, but it’s also worth noting that he was born after a guy like Cecil Shorts (25). I agree with Jacob Meyers that Shorts is significantly undervalued, which gives you an idea of just how massively undervalued the uber-talented Nicks will be if he ever sustains a stretch of good health.
Percy Harvin (25) was born a month after Ryan Broyles (25). It’s hard not to love Broyles as a Welker-type receiver in the Lions offense, but he’s getting a very late start on his pro career. Harvin’s relatively young age helps explain why the Seahawks traded for the quasi-elite possession threat despite his lack of reality efficiency.
Jonathan Baldwin (24) is only a month older than Terrance Williams (24). The Cowboys rookie remains a better fantasy prospect as he hasn’t put two poor NFL seasons on his resume, but RotoViz has previously examined how Williams’ excellent peripherals lose a little luster due to his advanced age. Meanwhile, Baldwin is still pretty young for a guy who’s been in the league for two years and that improves what seem to be increasingly diminishing chances of a breakout.
A Few Other Reference Materials
To see which of these receivers are due for a big season in 2013, try the RotoViz WR Simulator.