If you checked out my running back post from the other day then you know that players that have a much higher ADP than other players from the same position on their team, also tend to outperform their ADP by slightly more than the average. I knew that to be true of RBs when I posted that article and I’ve since confirmed the same for WRs. I look at this as sort of a data mining approach to looking for fantasy targets, rather than a fully formed thesis. I’m just looking at these lists, hitting on certain names that I might be inclined to like, and then going “Oh yeah, they really don’t have anyone else at that position.” But also to be clear, the amount a random player with a big Gap will have over a player with a smaller gap is probably small.
Below is a table that contains the first WR to be drafted in fantasy for each NFL team this year. Their ADP is shown in the table, as well as the difference between that player’s ADP and the next player at their position’s ADP. I call that difference the Gap.
2013 WR ADP and Difference Over #2 on Team (Gap)
Probably the two names that jump out most to me are Dwayne Bowe and Torrey Smith. I think both guys are just so much better than anyone else their team has that they’ll have to see a good number of targets in 2013. The same is true for Calvin Johnson, but all of that information has already been priced into his draft spot.
Some names at the bottom of the list that did give me pause were Victor Cruz and Reggie Wayne. Cruz will likely have to contend with a healthy Hakeem Nicks for targets, while Wayne has a few guys likely to siphon off some of his ridiculous number of targets from 2012.
Again, this information is only bordering on actionable and is primarily offered because it allows us to visualize an idea very quickly. But I’m not going to go out and start drafting guys in the order of their Gaps.