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He’s All They Have – aka “The Stevie Johnson All-Stars”

steviejohnson

If you checked out my running back post from the other day then you know that players that have a much higher ADP than other players from the same position on their team, also tend to outperform their ADP by slightly more than the average. I knew that to be true of RBs when I posted that article and I’ve since confirmed the same for WRs. I look at this as sort of a data mining approach to looking for fantasy targets, rather than a fully formed thesis. I’m just looking at these lists, hitting on certain names that I might be inclined to like, and then going “Oh yeah, they really don’t have anyone else at that position.” But also to be clear, the amount a random player with a big Gap will have over a player with a smaller gap is probably small.

Below is a table that contains the first WR to be drafted in fantasy for each NFL team this year. Their ADP is shown in the table, as well as the difference between that player’s ADP and the next player at their position’s ADP. I call that difference the Gap.

2013 WR ADP and Difference Over #2 on Team (Gap)

NAME TM ADP GAP
Dwayne Bowe KCC 50.3 170.48
Pierre Garcon WAS 60.6 169.76
A.J. Green CIN 11.33 161.92
Torrey Smith BAL 60 144.57
Calvin Johnson DET 4.98 137.15
Percy Harvin SEA 25.66 111.73
Steve Smith CAR 79.34 107.95
Brandon Marshall CHI 16.46 104.98
Stevie Johnson BUF 73.62 101.69
Larry Fitzgerald ARI 29.36 92.92
Danny Amendola NEP 57.21 92.4
Mike Wallace MIA 54.61 92.23
Andre Johnson HOU 31.57 84.17
Josh Gordon CLE 76.24 83.86
Dez Bryant DAL 15.25 77.89
Denarius Moore OAK 114.19 75.88
Antonio Brown PIT 61.43 70.52
Marques Colston NOS 51.18 58.75
Vincent Jackson TBB 41.14 53.78
Tavon Austin STL 82.66 51.13
Greg Jennings MIN 75.46 46.18
Michael Crabtree SFO 76.94 41.19
Danario Alexander SDC 91.25 36.26
Demaryius Thomas DEN 20.44 26.58
Reggie Wayne IND 55.28 23.57
Kenny Britt TEN 89.24 21.69
Randall Cobb GBP 26.77 19.09
Julio Jones ATL 16.14 17.75
Santonio Holmes NYJ 171.55 11.73
Victor Cruz NYG 33.16 10.59
Cecil Shorts JAC 81.18 6.91
Jeremy Maclin PHI 83.11 6.34

Probably the two names that jump out most to me are Dwayne Bowe and Torrey Smith. I think both guys are just so much better than anyone else their team has that they’ll have to see a good number of targets in 2013. The same is true for Calvin Johnson, but all of that information has already been priced into his draft spot.

Some names at the bottom of the list that did give me pause were Victor Cruz and Reggie Wayne. Cruz will likely have to contend with a healthy Hakeem Nicks for targets, while Wayne has a few guys likely to siphon off some of his ridiculous number of targets from 2012.

Again, this information is only bordering on actionable and is primarily offered because it allows us to visualize an idea very quickly. But I’m not going to go out and start drafting guys in the order of their Gaps.

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