Lamar Miller: Buy or Sell?


Via 2013 Offseason All Hype Team |

The problem with Miller getting so much attention (which is the same issue Steven Jackson has) is that there is not much value to be had at his elevated ADP level. Miami was a poor run blocking team in 2012, garnering a collective -5.2 grade from PFF (23rd in the league). Projected starters Jonathan Martin and John Jerry were truly awful in that department while earning -6.0 and -8.8 grades, respectively. Former Falcon Tyson Clabo, historically a strong run blocker, will help in this area – though newly signed tight end Dustin Keller certainly will not. Miller’s pass protection is still a question mark despite encouraging reports, and it is not definite that he will be the true bell cow back owners pay for based on his ADP.  Verdict:  Over Hyped

Alright, so not everyone loves Lamar Miller as much as we do here at RotoViz. In his ADP evaluation for running backs in 2013, Patrick Thorman of Pro Football Focus cites several holes in the Miami running game as potential deterrents to a breakout season for Lamar Miller. And with a rising ADP, that’s never a good sign for an almost rookie running back. But before you kick Lamar Miller to the curb, take a look at Ryan Rouillard’s analysis on Lamar Miller’s potential for 2013. Rouillard cites Miller’s college production (60% of his team’s rushing yards) as an indicator of what his statistics might look like in the NFL. Furthermore, even though Rouillard doesn’t love the fact that the Dolphins drafted Miller in the 4th round, he attributes it to teams being scared of a shoulder injury. The mysterious shoulder injury, however, did not deter Miller from putting up solid numbers in college. Rouillard goes on to cite other evidence including athletic measurables, poor RB competition from Daniel Thomas, similarity score production and positive media buzz to prove Miller’s worth in 2013 fantasy leagues. In my mind, if you can get Lamar Miller for even a decent price in your 2013 fantasy draft, he’s well worth a pick. Make sure to check out Lamar Miller’s full similarity scores using the RotoViz Similarity Score App.

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