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Denarius Moore, Greg Jennings and ADP Arbitrage

DenariusMoore

Just a short post here to say that we’re all basically sleeping on Denarius Moore at this point. Look at the table below and the list of receivers that Moore was roughly similar to in 2012:

NAME SEAS OFF AGE WEIGHT GMS TRGS RECS YDS TDS recFPOP YPT ADP
Denarius Moore 2012 OAK 24 194 15 7.60 3.40 49.40 0.47 6.50 49.00
Comparables Average Positional ADP: 33.7
NAME SEAS OFF AGE WEIGHT GMS TRGS RECS YDS TDS recFPOP YPT ADP
Mike Wallace 2012 PIT 26 199 15 7.93 4.27 55.67 0.53 0.02 7.02 22.00
Greg Jennings 2012 GB 29 198 8 7.75 4.50 45.75 0.50 (0.15) 5.90 31.00
Justin Blackmon 2012 JAC 22 207 16 8.25 4.00 54.06 0.31 (0.13) 6.55 48.00

So what are the knocks against Moore in 2013? First, the Raiders are likely to have a terrible offense. But Justin Blackmon is going to be suspended for 4 games and he’s going in the same part of the draft as Moore. And they both had pretty similar 2012 seasons. Oh yeah, and Blackmon’s QB situation might be almost as bad as Moore’s. Then you have Greg Jennings who is going to play with a QB (Christian Ponder) that I think is more competent than a lot of people give him credit for, but isn’t nearly as good as the QB that Jennings is leaving (Aaron Rodgers). Mike Wallace is being drafted the highest of this group and while I think that’s warranted, he’s going some 27 WR spots in front of Denarius Moore – when they had roughly similar 2012 seasons.

I would put Denarius Moore in the group of WRs that I think are sort of OK to own as 4th and 5th options, but I would also put Greg Jennings and Mike Wallace in that group as well. I think the odds of any of them finishing among the top 12 are probably low and there’s always a decent chance they’re on your bench when they roll up 150 yards and 2 TDs. But at least among this group Moore seems to be priced right and also isn’t suspended for the first 4 games. This is another example of a situation where I think Mike Wallace is likely to have the better fantasy year when compared to Moore, but just not as likely as ADP suggests.

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