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Forecasting Terrell Pryor Using Tim Tebow Starts

timtebow

If you can’t get a hold me me today, it’s because I’ll be down at Champs Sports picking up a Terrell Pryor jersey. It’s not so much that I’m a Raiders fan, or an Ohio State fan, or even a Pryor fan… as it is that I’m a fantasy football fan. Even though I think the overlap between fantasy football and real football is pretty close to about 95%, there are a few outliers that are awesome at fantasy football and might be terrible at real football. Terrell Pryor has a chance to be the Babe Ruth of that group. He looks like a terrible NFL QB. And yet the fact that he can run pretty well is likely to make him at least a decent fantasy QB. And I love that.

But Pryor is a player that is going to be difficult to forecast using the GLSP app because we have limited prior observations of him. So we have to kind of make things up as we go. I went back and watched all of Pryor’s snaps from the preseason and then created a scouting report… ok, I’m just messing with you. I didn’t do that. I went back and watched Pryor’s preseason highlights and then looked up some numbers. That’s how I’m going to forecast Pryor. The numbers that I consulted were Tim Tebow’s starts from the 2010 and 2011 season. He had 14 starts over that span, so just short of an NFL season. I have the table of those starts below if you just want to skip to that. But a few notes before we get there:

  • Pryor is a terrible thrower of the football. Tebow was too. Tebow completed just 47% of his passes and had an AYA of 6.44.
  • You’re not playing either Tebow or Pryor for how they throw the ball. You’re playing them for how they run it. They both run it well. Tebow is bigger, but Pryor is faster. Tebow averaged 58 yards/game in his starts. He also averaged better than a touchdown every two games and had a couple of 2 pt conversions.
  • In sum Tebow averaged 19 fantasy points/game over his 14 starts (using 4 pts for passing touchdowns). That means that in 6 pt TD leagues Tebow was good for 21 pts/game.
  • There are probably a few QBs that I would play Pryor over this week. But I don’t think he’s without risk. I would be at least a little worried that he could get pulled early, so there’s some chance you could get just a half from Pryor. But if I didn’t have one of the top 12 or so QBs and Pryor was sitting on the waiver wire, I’d probably pick him up and start him.
Passing Rushing
Year Opp Cmp Att Cmp% Yds TD Int AY/A Att Yds Y/A TD 2PM FP
2010 OAK 8 16 50% 138 1 0 9.88 8 78 9.75 1 23.3
2010 HOU 16 29 55% 308 1 1 9.76 10 27 2.7 1 23.0
2010 SDG 16 36 44% 205 2 2 4.31 13 94 7.23 1 27.6
2011 MIA 13 27 48% 161 2 0 7.44 9 59 6.56 0 1 22.3
2011 DET 18 39 46% 172 1 1 3.77 10 63 6.3 0 15.2
2011 OAK 10 21 48% 124 2 0 7.81 13 118 9.08 0 24.8
2011 KAN 2 8 25% 69 1 0 11.13 9 43 4.78 1 17.1
2011 NYJ 9 20 45% 104 0 0 5.2 8 68 8.5 1 17.0
2011 SDG 9 18 50% 143 1 0 9.06 22 67 3.05 0 16.4
2011 MIN 10 15 67% 202 2 0 16.13 4 13 3.25 0 1 19.4
2011 CHI 21 39 54% 237 1 1 5.44 12 49 4.08 0 16.4
2011 NWE 11 22 50% 194 0 0 8.82 12 93 7.75 2 29.1
2011 BUF 13 29 45% 185 1 3 2.41 10 34 3.4 1 14.8
2011 KAN 6 22 27% 60 0 1 0.68 6 16 2.67 0 2.0
Average 11.57 24.36 47% 164.4 1.07 0.64 6.44 10.43 58.71 5.62 0.57 1.00 19.2

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