For the last few months I’ve done Tuesday rundowns of all the wideout situations. I’m doing the same thing this week. Also, since I’m not omniscient, check out RotoViz’s Buy Low Machine and WR GLSP Projections. Thanks for taking the time to read all season. I’ll see you in 2014! Here we go!
Vernon Davis and Anquan Boldin finished 2013 tied at exactly 161 standard points. Davis is basically a WR who can block like an H-back when he needs to. And for the second straight season Boldin has finished with more points than Larry Fitzgerald. That’s not actionable information; that’s just a fact that feels more relevant than it is. I have no idea if Crabtree will be a WR1 or WR3 in 2014. Maybe the playoffs will give us some clue.
Kendall Wright finished 2013 as the #30 WR. He may be The Little Blue Engine That Could, but thanks to Frank’s post on relative receiver efficiency I’m not buying Wright’s season as the breakout it seems to be.
Some facts for your perusal:
- In 2012, Josh Gordon was the #38 WR.
- In 2013, Cordarelle Patterson is the #38 WR—and #32 if you count his 2 return TDs.
- In 2012, C-Patz scored 10 total TDs in his only FBS season: 5 receiving, 3 rushing, and 2 returning.
- In 2013, C-Patz scored 9 total TDs in his rookie season: 4 receiving, 3 rushing, and 2 returning.
- In the second half of the 2013 season, when C-Patz became more involved in his offense, he scored 7 TDs in 8 games.
As people who were reading RotoViz back in April know, I like C-Patz as a dynasty prospect. Perhaps I like him against reason, but I think he’ll be a Gordon-esque force in 2014. He won’t finish next year as the #1 WR, but a top-10 positional finish is definitely achievable. Speaking of which . . .
Is it that time already?
Who would you rather have right now? Calvin Johnson or Josh Gordon?
Who would you rather have right now? Josh Gordon or Megatron? Three weeks ago, when I asked this question for the first time, Fantasy Dirk Gordon was averaging 0.6 pts/g more than Megatron on the season. With the season over and both guys having played 14 games, that number is still at 0.6. At this point, only two people can stop Gordon from being a top-3 WR for the next five years: Gordon himself and Jimmy Haslam.
Gordon has scored 16.2 standard pts/g this season. A.J. Green, 13.0. Remember when those numbers used to be close? Quick question: Who do you think will have the higher ADP in 2014? Probably not the guy who deserves it. #Arbitrage
Here’s what I said last week:
Griff Whalen has 10.5 and 8 pts in the two weeks since returning to the active roster. That’s what I call “the beginning of a trend,” even if the trend turns out to be “No fantasy WR on this team is reliable.” In Week 16, we saw the “disappointing Hilton”—he takes after his cousin, Mike Wallace: They’re related through Bruce Arians. Week 17 against the Jaguars at home: This is the kind of game that “College Da’Rick” would dominate. Let’s see what he does.
Griff Whalen: He’s overtaken Brazill on the depth chart and averaged 9.2 pts/g since returning to the active roster. I haven’t yet found a precedent of a short and slow collegiately non-productive WR turning into a long-lived fantasy asset—but that doesn’t mean it couldn’t happen. Whalen could be the guy. He could also be out of the league by this time next season.
T.Y. Hilton: In 2013, he scored fewer than 7 pts ten different weeks. He scored more than 12 pts five weeks. He was basically Mike Wallace with more upside. I like Hilton—a lot—but he’ll need to develop some Antonio Brown-like consistency if he’s to become a top-10 WR.
If Stephen Hill doesn’t make it in the NFL, he has a future as a Jonathan Baldwin impersonator. I still think Geno Smith will turn into a good QB, and whoever becomes his eventual #1 WR will be valuable—but that WR probably isn’t on the Jets roster right now. But he might be on the practice squad.
It took all 16 games and an injury to his teammate, but Mike Wallace finally overtook Brian Hartline and claimed the title of “Least Bad Dolphins WR”—and amazingly both guys were top-30 WRs this year.
I’m not sure what to make of Brian Quick, but remember that V-Jax, another small-school prospect drafted in the second round, didn’t break out till his fourth year. I could see Quick, Stedman Bailey (the [good] Mario Manningham of 2014), and Tavon Austin forming a strong WR trio next year.
Starting in Week 12, when Denarius Moore’s injury created an opening in the starting lineup, Andre Holmes scored 7.6 pts/g played. Over that time, Rod Streater had 8.0 and Moore had 4.2 pts/g. Holmes has talent, and he’s the type of guy who can develop into a #1 WR. I’m not sure Streater is. I’ll be very interested in hearing the news on Holmes coming out of OTAs and training camp in 2014.
Dez Bryant finished 2013 by scoring a TD in his last five games. Barring injury, he’s a lock to be a top-10 WR in 2014. Terrance Williams ended up as the #40 WR on the season. If he’s the #20 WR next year, I won’t be surprised.
Keenan Allen is the reminder that a slower WR can still succeed—as long as he’s big, drafted before the fifth round, had good college production, or in a good offensive scheme—and ideally all four at once.
In the 8 games Aaron Rodgers completed (Weeks 1-8, Week 17), Jordy Nelson scored 15.4 pts/g. On the season, Gordon scored 16.2, Megatron 15.6, and Demaryius 14.2 pts/g played. Jon Moore was right. Nelson has top-3 WR potential in 2014. Randall Cobb and Jarrett Boykin? Top-10 and top-20 upside.
Week 1, 2013:
Person A: Marques Colston will finish the season as a low-end WR3.
Person B: He’ll be that bad?!
Week 17, 2013:
Person A: Marques Colston finished the season as a low-end WR3.
Person B: He was that good?!
The Panthers finished the season without a top-40 WR, and yet Cam Newton finished as a top-5 QB for the third year in a row. Whenever he finally connects with a receiver, that guy will be a top-10 WR—and that guy could be Marvin McNutt in 2014. Get something for nothing.
With Justin Blackmon and Cecil Shorts out, none of the active Jags WRs was taller than 6’0” or heavier than 200 lbs. Is it any wonder they collectively suck? With a good QB in 2014, Blackmon and Shorts could form a nice top-15/top-30 combo. (I hope.)
Andre Johnson finished 2013 as the #12 WR in standard leagues and even better in PPR: “Hey, Dre, thanks, that was fun. Should we do it again next year?” By the way, Ryan Griffin has some Gronk to his game. He’s not a WR, but he’s intriguing.
In 2014, skip Larry Fitzgerald and draft Michael Floyd later.
Whatever you think of Torrey Smith’s 2013, just don’t blame him. Also, for 2014, remember the name Aaron Mellette. He could be the next late-round small-school WR to break out.
Two top-8 WRs—but neither was a top-3 receiver, so not a great year. #Asshole
The Tale of the Three Brothers:
One of the brothers asked for a wand more powerful than any in existence. The second asked for the power to recall others from Death. The third asked for something that would enable him to go forth from that place without being followed by Death.
I’m not sure which Broncos WR is which brother—but Peyton Manning is Death: That dude just destroyed 2013.
Interested in RBs? Here’s my 2013 RB Report.