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End of Season RB Efficiency Numbers


As a refresher:

Expected Points: The average number of fantasy points that would have been produced by a play from the same line of scrimmage. For instance, a pass from the opponent’s 1 yard line will produce about 2.5 fantasy points on average (with the average calculated over a 12 year period).

Fantasy Points Over Par: The difference between the average value of a play, and what actually happened. In the example above, if a QB completes the pass from the 1 for a touchdown, it results in positive FPOP, whereas an incomplete pass or a pass play that comes up short of the goal line will both count as negative FPOP.

Some thoughts after 17 weeks:

  • By the time the season was over, Jamaal Charles occupied his own tier.
  • Ryan Mathews finished with about as many rushing yards as Marshawn Lynch, but did it on fewer carries. The main difference in their fantasy scoring was touchdowns, where Lynch doubled Mathews’ production. But that was mainly an issue of opportunity as Lynch had more than double Mathews’ carries inside the 10 yard line. Lynch is viewed as a transcendent-offense-supporting runner, while Mathews has earned only begrudging recognition for having a nice season. I guess it’s probably worth remembering that not that long ago Marshawn Lynch was about as trusted as Ryan Mathews is now. I’m not saying Mathews will follow Lynch’s career trajectory, but I am saying that the idea that we can offer any value add when scouting young running backs is probably misguided. Donald Brown and Knowshon Moreno agree with this.
  • Does anyone else get the feeling that Chris Johnson will end up somewhere on a veteran “prove it” contract and then will end up either wildly surprising or wildly disappointing, depending on what his ADP is next year?
  • Alfred Morris has the most solid (but also solidly disappointing) season I can remember.
  • Zac Stacy had a season that was pleasantly surprising, but he did end up negative in terms of FPOP. So a lot of his fantasy points came on opportunity. I think going into next season I would mostly be interested in seeing what STL does at QB (where I expect them to have Bradford back, but you never know) and also at coordinator. I’d love to seen Brian Schottenheimer out and Kyle Shanahan come in. If Shotty does leave, it wouldn’t be out of the question for Shanahan Jr. to come in as Jeff Fisher and Mike Shanahan are friends. But I do think the Rams need a balanced offense that isn’t just a collection of plays and I think Shanny Jr.s could bring that. This is about 99% sure to not happen.
  • I’d like to think that Ray Rice could be a buy low heading into next season but my guess is that he ends up in that really gross range of the draft where in order to take him you would have to bypass a really attractive WR1/WR2 borderline player.
  • Am I crazy, or is the broad perception that MJD had a bounceback season? The only difference between MJD and Benjarvus Green-Ellis was receptions. And people can’t wait for Law Firm to get out.
  • Perhaps a tangentially related point: Every year there’s a bunch of debate about age related declines and every year that discussion includes some argument that “this time is different” or “this guy really takes care of his body” and yet every year we see guys hit that wall. I’ve recently had sort of a change of thinking regarding the issue of football players and age, and that change was informed in part by reading the excerpt from Nate Jackson’s book that was featured on Deadspin. I’m sure some amount of age effects that we see in football is related to what we might traditionally think of as aging, like reduced ability to heal. But some other part, maybe even the most important part, might just be like a car that’s been in a bunch of accidents. Over time, despite efforts to fix the car, it’s just going to become more permanently damaged and all of those little things that don’t work right will start to add up until the car barely runs anymore. In the case of football players, all of those injuries can also lead to other compensatory injuries. Just because a player is going out and playing on Sunday doesn’t mean they aren’t hurt. If you only had to suit up 16-20 times per year and your livelihood depended on actually being available for those times, you would play with injuries. You would even claim that you’re not injured, lest that injury be used against you in future contract discussions. I don’t know if I have a good way to relate this line of thinking back to actionable fantasy intel yet, but I’ll try to work on that over the offseason.
  • Reggie Bush does seem to be a natural receiver. He’s so good in fact, that I sort of wonder if he shouldn’t be used almost like Darren Sproles, where he’s going to catch the ball most of the time, and run it just enough to keep the defense honest. That seems like a way to preserve him and also still get his most valuable contributions.

2013 Final RB Efficiency

PLAYERGMSATTSRYDSYPCRTDSrecsrecYDSrecTDSExp PtsActual PtsFPOP per OppTotal FPOPCareer FPOP per OppExp Pts per G
Jamaal Charles1526012824.9312706937238.49311.500.2073.010.1815.90
Matt Forte1628713374.669755923229.78264.900.0935.120.0314.36
Marshawn Lynch1630112554.1712363162215.91241.100.0725.190.0513.49
LeSean McCoy1631416075.129525402212.31280.700.1868.390.1013.27
Le'Veon Bell132448603.528454050195.69174.50-0.07-21.19-0.0715.05
Eddie Lacy1528511724.1111352570194.45208.900.0414.450.0412.96
Knowshon Moreno1624210394.2910605483191.20236.700.1445.500.0711.95
Frank Gore1627611284.099161410183.27180.90-0.01-2.370.0511.45
Ray Rice152146603.084583210181.53122.10-0.21-59.430.0312.10
Adrian Peterson1428012594.5010291711181.19209.000.0927.810.1612.94
Chris Johnson1627910673.826423454177.69201.200.0723.510.0811.11
DeMarco Murray1421711225.179533481173.49207.000.1233.510.0612.39
Reggie Bush1422410024.474545063172.99192.800.0719.810.0512.36
Ryan Mathews1628512554.406261891172.11186.400.0414.290.0510.76
Fred Jackson162078964.339463751170.43187.100.0616.670.0410.65
Maurice Jones-Drew152358033.425433140168.82141.70-0.09-27.120.1011.25
Zac Stacy132509723.897261411164.85159.30-0.02-5.55-0.0212.68
Alfred Morris1627612754.6279780154.96177.300.0822.340.119.68
Pierre Thomas161475493.732775173145.42136.60-0.04-8.820.109.09
Joique Bell161676463.878535470143.78167.300.1023.520.108.99
Giovani Bernard161716813.985565143141.64167.500.1125.860.118.85
Rashard Mendenhall152186873.158181340135.73130.10-0.02-5.630.029.05
Danny Woodhead161064213.972766096134.11151.000.0916.890.148.38
DeAngelo Williams152018304.133263331133.75140.300.036.550.148.92
Ben Tate141817704.254341400133.68115.00-0.08-18.680.019.55
Bilal Powell161766973.961362720132.49102.90-0.13-29.59-0.098.28
Steven Jackson121565423.476331911131.16115.30-0.08-15.860.0110.93
BenJarvus Green-Ellis162207543.4374220129.84119.60-0.04-
Rashad Jennings151647334.476362920128.66138.500.059.840.048.58
C.J. Spiller152019274.612331710125.93121.80-0.02-
Lamar Miller161777094.012261700116.6699.90-0.08-16.76-0.047.29
Trent Richardson141574582.923282651110.4696.30-0.07-14.16-0.037.89
Stevan Ridley141787724.34710620108.22125.400.0917.180.067.73
Chris Ivory151828324.5732100100.37102.200.011.830.096.69
Andre Ellington151176525.57339371199.64126.300.1526.660.156.64
Bernard Pierce161524362.87220104099.2766.00-0.19-33.27-0.106.20
Andre Brown81404883.49320103097.3777.10-0.12-20.270.0212.17
Willis McGahee111383852.792820096.8352.50-0.30-44.33-0.018.80
Jacquizz Rodgers15973333.43252340296.7991.30-0.03-5.49-0.036.45
Montee Ball151195604.71420138092.5993.800.
Mike Tolbert161013613.57527184292.3596.500.
Darren Sproles15532224.19271604291.42106.600.1115.180.206.09
Arian Foster81215424.48122183191.2684.50-0.04-6.760.0911.41
Bobby Rainey81375323.8851150186.8294.200.057.380.0210.85
LeGarrette Blount161537725.057238085.78123.000.2437.220.125.36
Daniel Thomas151094063.7241563281.9082.900.011.00-0.085.46
Darren McFadden101143793.32517108081.6378.70-0.02-2.930.058.16
Donald Brown151025375.26627214281.25123.100.3141.850.085.42
Chris Ogbonnaya16482394.98048343280.8170.20-0.09-10.61-0.075.05
Doug Martin61284563.5611266078.2258.20-0.13-20.020.0313.04
Shane Vereen8442084.73147427377.9187.500.089.590.149.74
Marcel Reece16462184.74232331267.3078.900.1211.600.164.21
Dexter McCluster15850.63053512263.5963.700.
Roy Helu16632684.25431251061.1575.900.1414.750.013.82
Jordan Todman14772473.21214116160.1554.30-0.06-5.85-0.074.30
James Starks13894935.5431089159.0282.200.2323.180.024.54
Brandon Bolden10552734.96321152055.2360.500.
Peyton Hillis7732463.3721396055.2046.20-0.10-
Shonn Greene11772953.834639054.0457.400.043.36-0.014.91
Michael Bush14631973.133448152.7448.50-0.06-
Jason Snelling13451483.29129216351.5860.400.118.820.003.97
Mark Ingram11783864.951768051.3351.400.
Brian Leonard16471823.87029179048.8736.10-0.15-12.77-0.143.05
Bryce Brown15753144.192884048.3851.800.043.420.043.23
Daryl Richardson7692153.12014121047.8233.60-0.16-14.22-0.116.83
Knile Davis14702423.4641175047.6955.700.
Robert Turbin15772643.430860046.1132.40-0.15-13.71-0.093.07
Kendall Hunter16783584.593213041.9955.100.1613.110.082.62
Mike James7602954.9201043041.8733.80-0.11-8.07-0.115.98
Ronnie Hillman9552183.96112119041.8539.70-0.03-2.15-0.054.65
Brandon Jacobs7582384.104213041.4749.100.127.630.135.92
Fozzy Whittaker929802.76021155237.7935.50-0.04-2.29-0.044.20
Joseph Randle5541643.042861037.5134.50-0.05-3.01-0.057.50
Matt Asiata2441663.773513035.2835.900.010.62-0.0417.64
Bruce Miller137131.86025243032.9425.60-0.17-7.34-0.122.53
Ronnie Brown12451573.491860032.7627.70-0.10-
Dennis Johnson8491833.730846032.5222.90-0.16-9.62-0.164.07
Edwin Baker3431713.982857032.3934.800.052.410.0510.80
Jonathan Dwyer14491974.020864032.0426.10-0.10-5.94-0.082.29
Ahmad Bradshaw3411864.542742031.5534.800.073.250.0910.52
Toby Gerhart12362837.8621388031.5249.100.3217.580.052.63
Felix Jones14481843.830963031.4624.70-0.11-6.760.072.25
Jackie Battle8361423.941436031.0323.80-0.18-7.23-0.083.88
Benny Cunningham13472615.551659031.0038.
Jonathan Stewart6481803.750744028.7022.40-0.11-6.300.094.78
Khiry Robinson10542244.15100028.5628.400.00-
Jed Collins1415453.0011454027.9315.90-0.36-
David Wilson5441443.27128027.6321.20-0.13-6.430.135.53
Tashard Choice10361213.360410026.0313.10-0.29-12.93-0.072.60
Vonta Leach1311232.0901147124.9813.00-0.39-11.98-0.171.92
Stepfan Taylor11361173.250871024.3818.80-0.12-5.58-0.122.22
Da'Rel Scott520733.65011102123.9323.50-0.01-0.43-0.094.79
Trent Richardson2311053.390751023.1915.60-0.18-7.59-0.0311.59
Anthony Dixon1028562.002330022.5520.60-0.06-1.95-0.052.26
John Kuhn1210383.8011381021.7017.90-0.13-3.800.051.81
Anthony Sherman11231.50018155121.3421.800.020.46-0.011.94
Darrel Young912413.423471119.5435.200.7515.660.532.17
Tommy Bohanon1117623.6501169018.8613.10-0.17-5.76-0.171.71
Lance Dunbar7301505.000759018.8220.900.062.08-0.102.69
Isaiah Pead47213.0001178018.329.90-0.38-8.42-0.274.58
Alfonso Smith818543.0011068018.2118.200.00-0.01-0.032.28
Stanley Havili11771.00018128117.4319.500.
Johnathan Franklin4191035.421430015.7219.300.153.580.153.93
Frank Summers812463.831779114.9124.500.489.590.481.86
Jonathan Grimes221733.481676014.8720.900.
Will Ta'ufo'ou9111.0001040013.414.10-0.58-9.31-0.551.49
Isaac Redman211131.180414013.302.70-0.66-10.60-0.036.65
Michael Cox323411.780312012.755.30-0.29-7.45-0.294.25
Justin Forsett86315.1701582012.6111.30-0.06-1.310.011.58
Will Johnson900NA0841112.3510.10-0.20-2.25-0.071.37
Cyrus Gray89242.670746011.287.00-0.23-4.28-0.121.41
Theo Riddick99252.781426010.8911.
Marcus Thigpen106183.000897110.5917.500.416.910.371.06
Chris Polk611988.913461010.4133.901.4723.491.471.74
Greg Jones10221.000534010.273.60-0.51-6.67-0.101.03
Erik Lorig900NA0114709.144.70-0.32-4.44-0.191.02
Bobby Rainey413342.62041909.115.30-0.22-3.810.022.28
Denard Robinson1018653.6100009.046.50-0.13-2.54-0.130.90
Christine Michael318794.3900008.567.90-0.04-0.66-0.042.85
Phillip Tanner59121.33133308.3310.500.172.17-0.071.67
Niles Paul500NA045107.675.10-0.32-2.570.041.53
LaMichael James712594.92021607.637.50-0.01-0.13-0.071.09
Jamize Olawale6263.00076307.506.90-0.05-0.60-0.051.25
Vick Ballard113634.8501-507.365.80-0.10-1.56-0.087.36
Le'Ron McClain911322.9102607.353.80-0.25-3.55-0.050.82
John Conner400NA063106.983.10-0.35-3.880.011.75
Deji Karim212514.2501-106.945.00-0.14-1.94-0.203.47
Alex Green411353.1802806.434.30-0.16-2.13-0.181.61
Derrick Coleman6231.50086216.4012.500.616.100.611.07
Tony Fiammetta400NA045706.245.70-0.09-0.54-0.221.56
Patrick DiMarco900NA084906.214.90-0.13-1.31-0.200.69
Tashard Choice311444.0001505.854.90-0.08-0.95-0.071.95
James Develin64102.50146205.7813.200.937.420.930.96
Michael Hill39232.56022305.494.60-0.08-0.89-0.081.83
Kenjon Barner3671.1702705.421.40-0.45-4.02-0.451.81
Mike Goodson27618.71021905.358.000.262.650.052.68
Jeremy Stewart3221.0012605.006.800.451.800.031.67
Jerome Felton600NA063704.913.70-0.15-1.21-0.130.82
Michael Robinson410-022704.772.70-0.52-2.07-0.111.19
LaRod Stephens-Howling16193.17021104.623.00-0.18-1.620.004.62
Antone Smith4514529.00221004.4127.502.8923.091.911.10
C.J. Anderson28384.7500004.373.80-0.06-0.57-0.062.18
Taiwan Jones45234.60025504.237.800.453.57-0.011.06
Dan Herron25336.60015704.219.000.804.790.212.10
Mike Gillislee16213.5000003.942.10-0.31-1.84-0.313.94
Collin Mooney500NA063203.863.20-0.11-0.66-0.100.77
Cedric Peerman28172.1300003.741.70-0.25-
Ray Graham1482.00011203.732.00-0.25-1.73-0.253.73
Travaris Cadet200NA02513.336.501.593.170.431.66
Bernard Scott24143.50021003.302.40-0.15-0.90-0.051.65
Evan Royster220-01303.100.30-0.93-2.800.021.55
Jeff Demps211414.00032102.373.500.
Shaun Draughn1420.5000001.890.20-0.42-1.690.001.89
Armond Smith2451.2500001.880.50-0.34-1.38-0.420.94
Zach Line300NA01801.860.80-0.35-1.06-0.350.62
Spencer Ware13103.3300001.801.00-0.27-0.80-0.271.80
Josh Vaughan1111.0002701.770.80-0.32-0.970.151.77
Cierre Wood2393.0000001.400.90-0.17-0.50-0.170.70
Robert Hughes100NA01601.250.60-0.33-0.65-0.361.25
Henry Hynoski200NA01501.250.50-0.37-0.75-0.230.62
Bradie Ewing200NA022901.242.900.831.660.830.62
Leon Washington1111.0000001.200.10-0.55-
Ronnie Wingo1144.0001201.130.60-0.26-0.53-0.261.13
Tyler Clutts11-2(2.00)00001.08-0.20-0.64-1.28-0.241.08
Mikel Leshoure1294.5000000.940.90-0.02-
Chris Rainey100NA00000.810.00-0.81-0.81-0.060.81
Kyle Juszczyk100NA00000.740.00-0.74-0.74-0.740.74
Quinn Johnson100NA00000.650.00-0.65-0.65-0.330.65
Joe Banyard100NA011100.611.100.490.490.490.61
Tyler Clutts100NA01400.610.40-0.21-0.21-0.240.61
Evan Rodriguez100NA00000.600.00-0.60-0.60-0.560.60

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