Yesterday I mentioned that I was working on an Age Adjusted Dominator Rating based on the work that Shawn Siegele, Jon Moore, and James Todd have done related to WR age. As I’ve been going through that exercise and looking at the numbers, I came up with a visualization that I thought would make some sense to post.
The graph below shows some 2014 WR prospects with each of their college games plotted so that age is on the x-axis and Dominator Rating for the game is on the y-axis. Then I’ve colored the points based on whether the game was above or below the expectation for an NFL draftee at that age.
- You can see that Jordan Matthews was good immediately when he started playing in college. Most of his games are well above the level you would expect based on age (Expected DR is plotted as the solid black line)
- Sammy Watkins was also very good right away, and was good to finish his career. His sophomore season’s production was closer to average.
- Most of Kelvin Benjamin’s points reside below the Expected DR line. He’s also the oldest in this group. I do obsess over ability to score touchdowns and I suspect that Benjamin will probably be decent at that in the NFL, but it also seems like he’ll be overdrafted based on his college production. And instead of an NFL team just using him in the red zone, where he might have value, I could see a team giving up on him when he underwhelms. Is it crazy to think that Benjamin could come off the board before Austin Sefarian-Jenkins? I think that would be a mistake.
- Mike Evans has been about average in DR for an NFL draftee. However, depending on his physical profile, he could still excel depending on the situation he ends up in. There have been other players with average AADR that have excelled in the NFL. It’s not impossible, it’s just the case that if you’re looking for an ideal prospect you would want one that produced more of his college team’s yards and TDs.