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The Phenom Index In Action: 2013 and 2014 Rookie Receivers
Image via Football Schedule/Flickr
Image via Football Schedule/Flickr

“So what the heck is the Phenom Index even telling us?”

“What would be a ‘good’ score?”

Several people asked those kind of questions after I introduced the Phenom Index and I’m really thankful they did.  It helped me understand what it means.  Honestly, I didn’t think I could be any more excited about this discovery until answering these questions made me realize what I had done:  create a tool that levels the playing field for prospects of all ages.

Yea…really.  It’s pretty cool.  Allow me to explain.

Building a Wide Receiver Tool

As I mentioned in the original Phenom Index article, the formula for creating the score is dividing the Production Index by the Age Index. (DRindex/AGEindex).  Imagine that you’ve got two sets of sorted data.  The first is production.  Higher production is better, so on a production index, the numbers work something like this.

  • 140  elite production
  • 120  above average production
  • 100  average production
  • 80   below average production
  • 60   poor production

The second set of data is age.  However, in this case, higher is worse and younger is better

  • 140 old prospect  (bad)
  • 120 older prospect
  • 100 average age prospect
  • 80 younger prospect
  • 60 young prospect (good)

So, if you had an average age prospect (100) with average production (100) they would have Phenom Index score of 1.  If you had a young prospect (60) with poor production (60) they would have a Phenom Index score of 1.  Same thing if you had an older prospect with elite production.  They are older, so they should produce better.  Their Phenom Index score is 1 also.  You get the idea.

Perhaps most important to note is that these scores are generated using the entire prospect universe in our database. So a score of 1 isn’t average for an NFL receiver. It’s average for a prospect. Not every prospect becomes an NFL receiver.

Takeaway #1:  A score of 1 on the Phenom Index is average for that player’s age, regardless of how old he is.

So what would be a good score and what does that score even mean?

Let’s pretend that we have an older prospect (120) who puts up average production (100); his PI score would be .83.  He receives a below average score because his production is not keeping up with his age.  Conversely, a younger prospect (80) who puts up average production (100) receives a grade of 1.20, which is above average.

Takeaway #2:  Scoring higher than 1 is good.  Scoring less than 1 is bad. 

But what do these numbers actually mean?  Let’s look at a few receivers from the 2012 draft and their Phenom Index scores.  Our sample includes Josh Gordon, who has become a stud.  Marvin Jones, who has shown flashes, but the jury is still out.  Then we have perpetual sleeper Nick Toon.  Here are their Phenom Index scores:

Josh Gordon:  4.48

Marvin Jones:  1.14

Nick Toon:  .93

Put another way, Nick Toon is (.93 minus 1) 7% worse than his age-average, Marvin Jones is (1.14 minus 1) 14% better than his age-average and Josh Gordon is (4.48 minus 1) 348% better than his age-average.

The reason Josh Gordon scored so spectacularly is because his “final college season” (on the field) was played at age 19.7 before he got suspended during his third year in school.  Then, instead of transferring, he just declared for the draft.  Technically, he kinda cheats the system, since he’s so young, but his relative dominance for such a young age should have tipped us off (same thing goes for 2014 sleeper Chris Boyd).  While a 25DR has typically been frowned upon by team rotoViz, the age adjustment helps us understand what a fantastic young talent Gordon was.

Meanwhile, things are starting to make a little more sense regarding Nick Toon.  His metrics looked usable, but, as we see now, they were a mirage due to his age.  He was below all expectations, never mind any that would lead us to believe he was a worthwhile speculative add.

Takeaway #3:  The Phenom Index indicates how much better or worse a player is than their age expectation, where 1 is average.

Now for what is a “good” score…

To understand the baseline for a stud NFL receiver, I looked at everyone who was drafted since 2006 who has posted a 150+ point fantasy season (31 players).  The average Phenom Index for this studly group was about 1.8.  They were about 80% above their age-expectation in their final college season.  That’s not to say I would use that as a line in the sand, but it helps provide some context.  I would suggest keeping an eye out for players who score 1.3 or above.  In any given draft, that’s about 20 players, which might seem like a lot, but I think is manageable group for focusing your evaluative energy.

Takeaway #4:  Look for Phenom Index scores greater than 1.3.

I’ve taken a lot of flack for caring so much about prospect age.  That’s fine.  But until now I could never properly explain to people what I meant.  Consider this example.  Pretend that we have two prospects that are young and old.  Maybe as you sift through the data, you decided that you prefer a Phenom Index score of 1.5.  Here is what it would take for the young and old prospect, respectively, to achieve that mark.

Younger prospect

1.5 Phenom Index = ?? production/ 80 age index… to  make the equation work, that young prospect would have to achieve a 120 (or be 20% above average) with his production.

Older prospect  

1.5 Phenom Index = ?? production/ 120 age index…to make the equation work, that old prospect would have to achieve a 180 (or be 80% above average) with his production.  See, it’s not that I hate older prospects, it just that they have A LOT more to achieve if I am to hold them in high regard.  Often times, that hurdle is just too high for them to get over.  Does that make it more clear as to why prospect age matters so much?  This definitely brings some clarity to me as to why zero percent of 22 & 23 year old breakouts go on to post elite fantasy seasons.

Takeaway #5:  I don’t hate older prospects and neither should you.  We just need to hold them to higher standards.

But what about breakout age?

Honestly, there’s probably more work to be done with the Phenom Index for players younger than the draft eligible age.  I can tell you that “final season PI” was more significant than “final two seasons PI” but if we look any further back than that, I can’t draw a definitive conclusion.  For now I would suggest that if a player did break post a DR above the 25-30 range before their 20th birthday, count that as extra credit.  Whereas I only think breakout age is a useful indicator, I know that Phenom Index score is a strong indicator of future success, so I’m just going to stick with that.

The Grand Finale

You’ve been promised scores for the 2013 and 2014 wide receiver classes…and HERE THEY ARE!  Visuals first and then an updated, all-time list below.

rsz_phenom1_1

Now do you see what all the Brandin Cooks fuss is about?  Make a mental note about where he is here, then look for Tavon Austin below.  Then go look at their workout numbers.  One of these things is not like the other.

For the last month I have been debating Allen Robinson as my #1 receiver in this class.  I’m not sure if this is the icing on the cake, but he’s almost certainly going to be in the top 3.  Sammy Watkins, as you’ll see, has an almost identical profile to DeAndre Hopkins and Keenan Allen.  Very strong, but not from another planet.

Props to Chris Boyd and Cody Latimer for their strong showings.  Don’t recognize those names?  I’ve got you covered through those links.

rsz_phenom2

STOP and look at the above graph.  There are two names here that people are talking about being top 90 picks…and then about 40 that nobody is talking about at all.  Did ya find ’em?  Does that make you nervous at all?

rsz_phenom131

BOOM goes the Marquess Wilson dynamite!  If you follow me on Twitter you may have seen some of my warning flares over the past few weeks, but here are the fireworks.  Wilson was the youngest rookie receiver in the 2013 draft and seems destined to get snaps at the #3 receiver in Chicago this year, with the possibility to start opposite Alshon in 2015 if/when Brandon Marshall leaves in Free Agency.  Now is the time to get him on your dynasty rosters.

You know how people talk about “the 2014 wide receiver class is SOO DEEEEP”?  Here is a visual reminder of that point.  Notice how the graph above only has four players north of the 2.0 threshold.  Now go look at the 2014 group…how many are above 2.0 there?  The depth is real.

Oh, and say hi to Marlon Brown for me…and those two dudes immediately above and below him.  Of that trio, two were first round picks to teams in Super Bowl purgatory and one was a UDFA to the then-defending Super Bowl champs.   Coincidence?

rsz_phenom132

Remember when Twitter used to freak out on me for knocking Kenbrell Thompkins for being old?  THIS is what I meant.  He and DeAndre Hopkins are on polar ends of this spectrum.   KT’s age/production profile was a total disaster, which is probably why he is pretty much irrelevant now.  Aaron Dobson is the only other head-scratcher I see on this list.  Breakout age says to like him, but this paints a different picture.  I still contend that Josh Boyce (2013 above average graph) is the long-term Patriots receiver to own.

All Phenom Index Scores 2006-14

WRDraftOverallNFL TeamCollegePhenom Index
Josh Gordon201239BrownsBaylor4.475
Brandin Cooks2014Oregon State3.437
Dezmon Briscoe2010191BengalsKansas3.41
Dwayne Jarrett200745PanthersUSC3.275
Sidney Rice200744VikingsSouth Carolina3.195
Allen Robinson2014Penn State3.17
Kenny Britt200930TitansRutgers3.151
Dez Bryant201024CowboysOklahoma State3.02
Eric Page2012270UDFAToledo2.989
Stephen Hill201243JetsGeorgia Tech2.871
DeAndre Hopkins201327TexansClemson2.814
Keenan Allen201376ChargersCalifornia2.805
Marquess Wilson2013236BearsWashington State2.776
Hakeem Nicks200929GiantsNorth Carolina2.756
Rueben Randle201263GiantsLouisiana State2.73
Mike Evans2014Texas A&M2.72
Randall Cobb201164PackersKentucky2.621
Sammy Watkins2014Clemson2.524
Greg Little201159BrownsNorth Carolina2.515
Calvin Johnson20072LionsGeorgia Tech2.509
Chad Jackson200636PatriotsFlorida2.427
Donte Moncrief2014Ole Miss2.381
Davante Adams2014Fresno State2.303
Earl Bennett200870BearsVanderbilt2.287
Jeremy Maclin200919EaglesMissouri2.261
Demaryius Thomas201022BroncosGeorgia Tech2.227
Danario Alexander2010270UDFAMissouri2.226
Jerome Simpson200846BengalsCoastal Carolina2.185
Kenny Stills2013144SaintsOklahoma2.179
Devin Thomas200834RedskinsMichigan State2.163
Jarvis Landry2014Louisiana State2.155
Jordan Matthews2014Vanderbilt2.099
Maurice Stovall200690BuccaneersNotre Dame2.084
Percy Harvin200922VikingsFlorida2.076
Greg Lee2006270UDFAPittsburgh2.07
Brian Robiskie200936BrownsOhio State2.069
Drouzon Quillen2006270UDFALouisiana-Monroe2.063
Miles Austin2006270UDFAMonmouth (NJ)2.018
Golden Tate201060SeahawksNotre Dame2.007
Robert Woods201341BillsUSC1.98
Kevin Ogletree2009270UDFAVirginia1.957
Kyle Williams201020649ersArizona State1.953
Mario Manningham200895GiantsMichigan1.945
Phillip Payne2012270UDFAUNLV1.939
Odell Beckham Jr.2014Louisiana State1.921
Albert Wilson2014Georgia State1.877
Da'Rick Rogers2013270UDFATennessee Tech1.869
Taveon Rogers2012270UDFANew Mexico State1.862
Emory Blake2013270UDFAAuburn1.835
Santonio Holmes200625SteelersOhio State1.833
Armon Binns2011270UDFACincinnati1.828
Chris Williams2009270UDFANew Mexico State1.827
David Richmond2009270UDFASan Jose State1.826
Chris Boyd2014Vanderbilt1.822
Eron Riley2009270UDFADuke1.822
Paul Richardson2014Colorado1.808
Domenik Hixon2006130BroncosAkron1.805
Leonard Hankerson201179RedskinsMiami (FL)1.803
Darvin Adams2011270UDFAAuburn1.79
Laurent Robinson200775FalconsIllinois State1.789
Tim Brown2010270UDFARutgers1.76
Brandon Tate200983PatriotsNorth Carolina1.749
DeSean Jackson200849EaglesCalifornia1.742
Brandon Gibson2009194EaglesWashington State1.721
AJ Jenkins20123049ersIllinois1.721
Quincy Enunwa2014Nebraska1.709
Damian Williams201077TitansUSC1.707
Brandon Marshall2006119BroncosCentral Florida1.705
Travis Brown2008270UDFANew Mexico1.705
Chris Matthews2011270UDFAKentucky1.702
Malcolm Kelly200851RedskinsOklahoma1.692
Jalen Saunders2014Oklahoma1.69
Michael Crabtree20091049ersTexas Tech1.682
James Hardy200841BillsIndiana1.677
Curtis Hamilton2008270UDFAWestern Kentucky1.666
Mike Davis2014Texas1.66
TJ Jones2014Notre Dame1.632
Shawn Bayes2009270UDFAKent State1.631
Ryne Robinson2007118PanthersMiami (OH)1.629
Stedman Bailey201392RamsWest Virginia1.627
Cody Latimer2014Indiana1.626
Jonathan Baldwin201126ChiefsPittsburgh1.622
Pierre Garcon2008205ColtsMount Union1.621
Jovon Bouknight2006270UDFAWyoming1.62
Ace Sanders2013101JaguarsSouth Carolina1.611
Antonio Brown2010195SteelersCentral Michigan1.611
Mike Walker200779JaguarsCentral Florida1.608
Marcus Easley2010107BillsConnecticut1.581
Torrey Smith201158RavensMaryland1.58
Noel Grigsby2014San Jose State1.576
Alec Lemon2013270UDFASyracuse1.575
Naaman Roosevelt2010270UDFABuffalo1.564
Steve Johnson2008224BillsKentucky1.554
Will Blackmon2006115PackersBoston College1.552
Brandon Breazell2008270UDFAUCLA1.552
Greg Jennings200652PackersWestern Michigan1.54
Devier Posey201268TexansOhio State1.538
Terrence Austin2010219RedskinsUCLA1.537
Chandler Williams2007233VikingsFlorida International1.534
Eric Decker201087BroncosMinnesota1.533
Tandon Doss2011123RavensIndiana1.529
Jeff Maehl2011270UDFAOregon1.526
Alshon Jeffery201245BearsSouth Carolina1.505
Mike Williams2010101BuccaneersSyracuse1.505
TY Hilton201292ColtsFlorida International1.5
Chris Givens WF201296RamsWake Forest1.498
Titus Young201144LionsBoise State1.483
Martel Moore2013270UDFANorthern Illinois1.48
Jordy Nelson200836PackersKansas State1.478
Ryan Grice-Mullen2008270UDFAHawaii1.467
Justin Blackmon20125JaguarsOklahoma State1.467
Lavelle Hawkins2008126TitansCalifornia1.467
Markus Wheaton201379SteelersOregon State1.463
Derek Hagan200682DolphinsArizona State1.46
Brian Quick201233RamsAppalachian State1.454
Steve Smith200751GiantsUSC1.452
Brelan Chancellor2014North Texas1.447
Donald Jones2010270UDFAYoungstown State1.446
Michael Floyd201213CardinalsNotre Dame1.443
Robert Meachem200727SaintsTennessee1.439
Rishard Matthews2012227DolphinsNevada1.436
Chandler Jones2014San Jose State1.435
Vincent Brown201182ChargersSan Diego State1.433
Freddie Barnes2010270UDFABowling Green1.433
DeAndre Brown2011270UDFASouthern Mississippi1.429
Jarius Wright2012118VikingsArkansas1.429
Darius Reynaud2008270UDFAWest Virginia1.428
Marvin McNutt2012194EaglesIowa1.424
Lavasier Tuinei2012270UDFAOregon1.419
Brennan Marion2009270UDFATulsa1.411
Bernard Reedy2014Toledo1.402
Logan Payne2007270UDFAMinnesota1.402
AJ Green20114BengalsGeorgia1.391
Dontavia Bogan2011270UDFASouth Florida1.389
Brandon Williams20068449ersWisconsin1.384
Gerald Jones2011270UDFATennessee1.382
Aldrick Robinson2011178RedskinsSouthern Methodist1.382
Darrius Heyward-Bey20097RaidersMaryland1.379
Craig Davis200730ChargersLouisiana State1.379
Josh Boyce2013102PatriotsTexas Christian1.378
Shay Hodge2010270UDFAMississippi1.377
Nelson Rosario2012270UDFAUCLA1.376
Damon Morton2008270UDFAColorado State1.372
Justin Hunter201334TitansTennessee1.364
Kendall Wright201220TitansBaylor1.358
James Kirkendoll2011270UDFATexas1.355
Ted Ginn20079DolphinsOhio State1.35
Darius Johnson2013270UDFASouthern Methodist1.346
Julio Jones20116FalconsAlabama1.341
Jeremy Williams2010270UDFATulane1.338
Mark Dell2011270UDFAMichigan State1.338
Martin Nance2006270UDFAMiami (OH)1.333
Juaquin Iglesias200999BearsOklahoma1.331
Josh Stewart2014Oklahoma State1.326
Niles Paul2011155RedskinsNebraska1.322
Jason Hill20077649ersWashington State1.321
Tavon Austin20138RamsWest Virginia1.318
Jeff Samardzija2007270UDFANotre Dame1.317
Carlton Mitchell2010177BrownsSouth Florida1.311
Denarius Moore2011148RaidersTennessee1.31
Patrick Turner200987DolphinsUSC1.309
Duke Calhoun2010270UDFAMemphis1.3
Todd Blythe2008270UDFAIowa State1.291
Eddie Royal200842BroncosVirginia Tech1.291
Eric Thomas2014Troy1.282
Hank Baskett2006270UDFANew Mexico1.281
Dane Sanzenbacher2011270UDFAOhio State1.281
Juron Criner2012168RaidersArizona1.279
Greg Orton2009270UDFAPurdue1.279
Johnny Quinn2007270UDFANorth Texas1.278
Dwayne Bowe200723ChiefsLouisiana State1.277
Josh Huff2014Oregon1.275
Chaz Schilens2008226RaidersSan Diego State1.272
Mike Hass2006171SaintsOregon State1.268
Michael Campanaro2014Wake Forest1.267
Mohamed Sanu201283BengalsRutgers1.264
B.J. Cunningham2012183DolphinsMichigan State1.259
Quinton Patton201312849ersLouisiana Tech1.258
Marcus Henry2008171JetsKansas1.255
Devin Street2014Pittsburgh1.245
Adrian Arrington2008237SaintsMichigan1.239
Lestar Jean2011270UDFAFlorida Atlantic1.235
Terrence Toliver2011270UDFALouisiana State1.235
Bruce Francis2009270UDFATemple1.234
Chad Hall2008270UDFAAir Force1.23
James Jones200778PackersSan Jose State1.229
Ryan Grant2014Tulane1.226
Alex Neutz2014Buffalo1.224
Drew Terrell2013270UDFAStanford1.222
Damarlo Belcher2012270UDFAIndiana1.221
Mike Thomas2009107JaguarsArizona1.22
Jared Perry2010270UDFAMissouri1.22
Arrelious Benn201039BuccaneersIllinois1.218
Jeremy Kerley2011153JetsTexas Christian1.216
Detron Lewis2011270UDFATexas Tech1.215
Kris Adams2011270UDFATexas-El Paso1.213
Marqise Lee2014USC1.212
Jamel Hamler2011270UDFAFresno State1.211
Kerry Reed2007270UDFAMichigan State1.208
Brandon LaFell201078PanthersLouisiana State1.203
Alex Amidon2014Boston College1.203
Kenny McKinley2009141BroncosSouth Carolina1.202
Adarius Bowman2008270UDFAOklahoma State1.202
Greg Ellingson2011270UDFAFlorida International1.2
Cobi Hamilton2013197BengalsArkansas1.196
David Anderson2006251TexansColorado State1.195
Greg Salas2011112RamsHawaii1.193
Louis Murphy2009124RaidersFlorida1.192
Maurice Purify2008270UDFANebraska1.184
Sinorice Moss200644GiantsMiami (FL)1.182
Toney Clemons2012231SteelersColorado1.18
Daryl Surgent2014Louisiana-Lafayette1.179
Gerell Robinson2012270UDFAArizona State1.179
Jason Avant2006109EaglesMichigan1.179
Jerrel Jernigan201183GiantsTroy1.176
Eric Peterman2009270UDFANorthwestern1.17
Marlon Brown2013270UDFAGeorgia1.169
Mohamed Massaquoi200950BrownsGeorgia1.164
Dwight Jones2012270UDFANorth Carolina1.164
Jeremy Ebert2012235PatriotsNorthwestern1.163
Riley Cooper2010159EaglesFlorida1.162
Kenneth Moore2008136LionsWake Forest1.161
Jeff Fuller2012270UDFATexas A&M1.16
Brandon Coleman2014Rutgers1.155
Marcus Monk2008248BearsArkansas1.152
Clinton Solomon2006270UDFAIowa1.145
Brian Paysinger2008270UDFAOregon1.145
Cecil Shorts2011114JaguarsMount Union1.144
Keenan Davis2013270UDFAIowa1.139
Kofi Hughes2014Indiana1.139
Marvin Jones2012166BengalsCalifornia1.136
Kevin Robinson2008182ChiefsUtah State1.136
Casey Fitzgerald2009270UDFANorth Texas1.12
Jonathan Krause2014Vanderbilt1.119
Syndric Steptoe2007234BrownsArizona1.117
Brandon Banks2010270UDFAKansas State1.116
Conner Vernon2013270UDFADuke1.114
Max Komar2010270UDFAIdaho1.114
Briggs Orsbon2012270UDFABall State1.114
Austin Collie2009127ColtsBrigham Young1.113
Dri Archer2014Kent State1.109
Victor Cruz2010270UDFAMassachusetts1.104
LaVon Brazill2012206ColtsOhio1.099
Darius Reynolds2012270UDFAIowa State1.099
Nate Jones2008270UDFATexas1.096
Keshawn Martin2012121TexansMichigan State1.093
Mark Harrison2013270UDFARutgers1.089
Brett Swain2008217PackersSan Diego State1.088
Doug Baldwin2011270UDFAStanford1.087
Emmanuel Sanders201082SteelersSouthern Methodist1.087
Markeith Summers2011270UDFAMississippi1.086
Terence Scott2009270UDFAOregon1.085
Corey Fuller2013171LionsVirginia Tech1.085
Deyon Williams2007270UDFAVirginia1.083
Jarrett Boykin2012270UDFAVirginia Tech1.08
Brian Hartline2009108DolphinsOhio State1.077
Jared Abbrederis2014Wisconsin1.075
Juan Nunez2011270UDFAWestern Michigan1.07
Jamarko Simmons2009270UDFAWestern Michigan1.068
Rhema McKnight2007270UDFANotre Dame1.066
Anthony Gonzalez200732ColtsOhio State1.066
David Reed2010156RavensUtah1.065
Jarett Dillard2009144JaguarsRice1.063
Seyi Ajirotutu2010270UDFAFresno State1.062
Eddie Thompson2009270UDFAIdaho State1.061
Johnnie Lee Higgins200799RaidersTexas-El Paso1.06
Demetrius Williams2006111RavensOregon1.059
Taylor Price201090PatriotsOhio1.059
Ryan Swope2013174CardinalsTexas A&M1.056
Jordan Norwood2009270UDFAPenn State1.055
Jermaine Kearse2012270UDFAWashington1.054
Jacoby Ford2010108RaidersClemson1.054
Michael Jones2009270UDFAArizona State1.053
Damien Linson2007270UDFACentral Michigan1.053
Rich Gunnell2010270UDFABoston College1.052
Aundrae Allison2007146VikingsEast Carolina1.051
Jordan White2012244JetsWestern Michigan1.051
Terrence McCrae2011270UDFAOhio1.047
Robert Jordan2008270UDFACalifornia1.046
Je'Ron Hamm2014Louisiana-Monroe1.044
Kamar Aiken2011270UDFAUCF1.042
Michael Washington2009270UDFAWest Chester1.039
D.J. Boldin2009270UDFAWake Forest1.038
Mike Wallace200984SteelersMississippi1.038
Terrance Williams201374CowboysBaylor1.038
Justin Brown2009270UDFAHampton1.037
John Dunlap2008270UDFANorth Carolina State1.037
Kealoha Pilares2011132PanthersHawaii1.037
Justin Brown2013186SteelersOklahoma1.036
Ryan Moore2007270UDFAMiami (FL)1.034
Kyle Nunn2014San Jose State1.033
Cody Hoffman2014Brigham Young1.031
Bret Smith2007270UDFATennessee1.023
Chad Bumphis2013270UDFAMississippi State1.022
Early Doucet200881CardinalsLouisiana State1.021
Darius Passmore2009270UDFAMarshall1.021
Cordarrelle Patterson201329VikingsTennessee1.018
Royce Pollard2012270UDFAHawaii1.017
L'Damian Washington2014Missouri1.013
Ronald Johnson201118249ersUSC1.011
Todd Watkins2006218CardinalsBrigham Young1.011
Brandon Myles2007270UDFAWest Virginia1.008
Xavier Maxwell2014Houston1.008
Brad Ekwerekwu2007270UDFAMissouri1.008
John Madsen2006270UDFAUtah1.006
Drisan James2007270UDFABoise State1.005
Freddie Brown2009252BengalsUtah1.003
Johnathan Holland2007254RaidersLouisiana Tech1.003
Jonathan Orr2006172TitansWisconsin1.002
John Broussard2007229JaguarsSan Jose State1.002
Marques Colston2006252SaintsHofstra1.001
Cory Rodgers2006104PackersTexas Christian0.996
Aaron Dobson201359PatriotsMarshall0.993
Davone Bess2008270UDFAHawaii0.988
Kris Burd2012270UDFAVirginia0.984
Jeremy Gallon2014Michigan0.983
Blair White2010270UDFAMichigan State0.983
Andrew Brewer2010270UDFANorthwestern0.983
David Gettis2010198PanthersBaylor0.981
Marcus Smith2008106RavensNew Mexico0.981
Marko Mitchell2009243RedskinsNevada0.98
Ryan Whalen2011167BengalsStanford0.978
Shaquelle Evans2014UCLA0.977
Aaron Valentin2010270UDFAPurdue0.976
Kerry Taylor2011270UDFAArizona State0.975
Travis Benjamin2012100BrownsMiami (FL)0.975
Donovan Varner2012270UDFADuke0.974
Lyle Leong2011270UDFATexas Tech0.972
Tiquan Underwood2009253JaguarsRutgers0.971
Derek Moye2012270UDFAPenn State0.969
Tavarres King2013161BroncosGeorgia0.968
Colin Lockett2014San Diego State0.968
Kelvin Benjamin2014Florida State0.967
Martavis Bryant2014Clemson0.966
Tommy Streeter2012198RavensMiami (FL)0.966
Josh Morgan200817449ersVirginia Tech0.964
Kenny Shaw2014Florida State0.964
Uzoma Nwachukwu2013270UDFATexas A&M0.962
Alric Arnett2010270UDFAWest Virginia0.96
Jabari Arthur2008270UDFAAkron0.96
Verran Tucker2010270UDFACalifornia0.959
Donte Foster2014Ohio0.958
Jason Carter2006270UDFATexas A&M0.958
TJ Graham201269BillsNorth Carolina State0.956
Sammie Stroughter2009233BuccaneersOregon State0.956
Patrick Edwards2012270UDFAHouston0.955
Griff Whalen2012270UDFAStanford0.954
Joe Fernandez2007270UDFAFresno State0.954
Anthony McClung2014Cincinnati0.954
Zach Rogers2013270UDFATennessee0.953
Armand Robinson2011270UDFAMiami (OH)0.952
Bennie Fowler2014Michigan State0.952
Julian Jones2014Arkansas State0.951
Aaron Kelly2009270UDFAClemson0.95
Kerry Meier2010165FalconsKansas0.948
Andre Caldwell200897BengalsFlorida0.948
Michael Bumpus2008270UDFAWashington State0.947
Jason Rivers2008270UDFAHawaii0.947
Scotty McKnight2011227JetsColorado0.947
Javontee Herndon2014Arkansas0.945
Jayson Swain2007270UDFATennessee0.944
Harry Douglas200884FalconsLouisville0.944
Marcus Davis2013270UDFAVirginia Tech0.942
Cameron Kenney2011270UDFAOklahoma0.942
Kashif Moore2012270UDFAConnecticut0.942
Jock Sanders2011270UDFAWest Virginia0.94
Joel Filani2007188TitansTexas Tech0.939
Jordan Shipley201084BengalsTexas0.939
Nate Swift2009270UDFANebraska0.936
Jason Chery2009270UDFALa.-Lafayette0.935
Austin Pettis201178RamsBoise State0.93
Nick Toon2012122SaintsWisconsin0.929
Damaris Johnson2012270UDFATulsa0.928
Nick Moore2009270UDFAToledo0.928
Lucas Taylor2009270UDFATennessee0.926
Mike Willie2012270UDFAArizona State0.92
Ryan Lankford2014Illinois0.92
Manuel Johnson2009229CowboysOklahoma0.917
Donnie Avery200833RamsHouston0.917
Javone Lawson2013270UDFALa.-Lafayette0.916
Tevin Reese2014Baylor0.916
Mardy Gilyard201099RamsCincinnati0.915
Taurus Johnson2009270UDFASouth Florida0.915
Damola Adeniji2010270UDFAOregon State0.909
David Clowney2007157PackersVirginia Tech0.909
Erik Highsmith2013270UDFANorth Carolina0.908
Courtney Taylor2007197SeahawksAuburn0.907
Dorien Bryant2008270UDFAPurdue0.906
Deon Butler200991SeahawksPenn State0.906
Marcus Rivers2012270UDFABuffalo0.904
Mario Urrutia2008246BengalsLouisville0.903
Isaiah Burse2014Fresno State0.895
Marcus Rucker2013270UDFAMemphis0.895
D'Juan Woods2007270UDFAOklahoma State0.892
Tyler Shoemaker2012270UDFABoise State0.891
Chip Reeves2013270UDFATroy0.889
Tyler Grisham2009270UDFAClemson0.889
Maurice Covington2009270UDFAVirginia0.888
Chansi Stuckey2007235JetsClemson0.887
Ryan Broyles201254LionsOklahoma0.884
Ernest Jackson2009270UDFABuffalo0.878
Jeff Godfrey2014UCF0.876
Eric Deslauriers2007270UDFAEastern Michigan0.876
Anthony Russo2008270UDFAWashington0.874
Derek Kinder2009251BearsPittsburgh0.869
Danny Amendola2008270UDFATexas Tech0.869
Nathan Palmer2012270UDFANorthern Illinois0.869
Jordan Kent2007210SeahawksOregon0.864
James Cleveland2011270UDFAHouston0.862
Trent Guy2010270UDFALouisville0.861
Marcus Sales2013270UDFASyracuse0.86
Preston Parker2010270UDFANorth Alabama0.859
Andrew Means2009270UDFAIndiana0.859
Wes Kemp2012270UDFAMissouri0.858
Nichiren Flowers2006270UDFANevada0.857
Demetrius Byrd2009224ChargersLouisiana State0.85
Rashard Smith2014North Carolina State0.849
Vincent Marshall2007270UDFAHouston0.848
Limas Sweed200853SteelersTexas0.847
Brandon Wimberly2014Nevada0.846
Nate Morton2007270UDFAWake Forest0.846
Marlon Moore2010270UDFAFresno State0.84
Johnny Knox2009140BearsAbilene Christian0.838
Joe Adams2012104PanthersArkansas0.836
Tres Moses2006270UDFARutgers0.835
Junior Hemingway2012238ChiefsMichigan0.833
Scott Long2010270UDFALouisville0.831
Derrell Johnson-Koulianos2011270UDFAIowa0.829
Dwayne Harris2011176CowboysEast Carolina0.826
D.J. Woods2012270UDFACincinnati0.823
Bryan Anderson2010270UDFACentral Michigan0.823
Jerard Rabb2007270UDFABoise State0.821
Chris McGaha2010270UDFAArizona State0.821
Jaison Williams2009270UDFAOregon0.82
David Gilreath2011270UDFAWisconsin0.817
John Chiles2011270UDFATexas0.816
Mark Bradford2008270UDFAStanford0.815
Dan Buckner2013270UDFAArizona0.815
Julian Horton2014Arkansas0.812
Josh Briscoe2009270UDFATennessee0.811
Stephen Williams2010270UDFAToledo0.811
Kris Durham2011107SeahawksGeorgia0.811
Chris Davis2007128TitansFlorida State0.81
Tracy Moore2014Oklahoma State0.81
Paul Williams200780TitansFresno State0.807
William Franklin2008105ChiefsMissouri0.805
Chris Harper2013123SeahawksKansas State0.802
Jason Harmon2010270UDFAFlorida Atlantic0.801
Greg Mathews2010270UDFAMichigan0.801
Jordan James2014Tulsa0.799
Chuck Jacobs2013270UDFAUtah State0.798
Ed Hinkel2006270UDFAIowa0.797
Lanear Sampson2013270UDFABaylor0.797
Chris Owusu2012270UDFAStanford0.795
Luke Swan2008270UDFAWisconsin0.793
Matt Simon2009270UDFANorthern Illinois0.792
Andre Jones2010270UDFAAkron0.789
Sam McGuffie2013270UDFARice0.788
Derrick Williams200982LionsPenn State0.787
D'Andre Goodwin2011270UDFAWashington0.784
Ryan Wolfe2010270UDFAUNLV0.781
James Rodgers2012270UDFAOregon State0.781
Jay Smith2012270UDFANorth Carolina State0.78
Tobais Palmer2013270UDFANorth Carolina State0.779
Frantrell Forrest2011270UDFAUAB0.778
Keenan Burton2008128RamsKentucky0.777
Jemalle Cornelius2007270UDFAFlorida0.776
Kerry Franks2008270UDFATexas A&M0.774
Kevin Dorsey2013224PackersMaryland0.771
Marshall Williams2011270UDFAWake Forest0.77
Marquise Goodwin201378BillsTexas0.769
Damarius Bilbo2006270UDFAGeorgia Tech0.767
Johnny Walker2008270UDFAColorado State0.766
Jesse Holley2007270UDFANorth Carolina0.766
Myles White2013270UDFALouisiana Tech0.765
Derel Walker2014Texas A&M0.762
Dallas Baker2007227SteelersFlorida0.759
Carl Moore2011270UDFAFlorida0.759
Jamar Newsome2011270UDFAUCF0.757
Greg Carr2009270UDFAFlorida State0.757
Adron Tennell2010270UDFAOklahoma0.757
Steve Odom2007270UDFAToledo0.756
Isaiah Williams2009270UDFAMaryland0.754
Skye Dawson2013270UDFATCU0.753
David Douglas2012270UDFAArizona0.75
Legedu Naanee2007172ChargersBoise State0.749
Jeff Moturi2010270UDFATexas-El Paso0.749
L.J. Castile2011270UDFADelta State0.748
Chris Francies2006270UDFATexas-El Paso0.747
Earnest Jackson2008270UDFACincinnati0.745
Rashad Ross2013270UDFAArizona State0.745
Quincy McDuffie2013270UDFAUCF0.744
Terry Richardson2007270UDFAArizona State0.74
Tavarese Maye2014Louisiana-Monroe0.737
TJ Moe2013270UDFAMissouri0.735
Richard Goodman2010270UDFAFlorida State0.735
Jerrell Jackson2012270UDFAMissouri0.732
Owen Spencer2011270UDFANorth Carolina State0.728
Brooks Foster2009160RamsNorth Carolina0.727
Brandon Robinson2009270UDFABoston College0.726
Chastin West2010270UDFAFresno State0.724
Amarri Jackson2008270UDFASouth Florida0.723
Brice Butler2013209RaidersSan Diego State0.723
Quintin Payton2014North Carolina State0.718
Jamal Miles2013270UDFAArizona State0.717
Matt Trannon2007270UDFAMichigan State0.713
DeVonte Christopher2013270UDFAUtah0.712
Brandon Felder2014Penn State0.711
Taj Smith2008270UDFASyracuse0.711
Anthony Denham2014Utah0.709
Spencer Harris2014Illinois0.708
Bart Johnson2011270UDFATCU0.707
Eric Ward2014Texas Tech0.706
Brett Hamlin2010270UDFABuffalo0.706
LaRon Byrd2012270UDFAMiami (FL)0.706
Danny Coale2012152CowboysVirginia Tech0.702
Thomas White2009270UDFABaylor0.7
Tori Gurley2011270UDFASouth Carolina0.698
Kadron Boone2014Louisiana State0.695
Keith Brown2008270UDFAAlabama0.694
Jon Davis2009270UDFAAzusa Pacific0.688
Darius Hanks2012270UDFAAlabama0.687
Rashaun Greer2010270UDFAColorado State0.687
Josh Jarboe2013270UDFAArkansas State0.677
Yamon Figurs200774RavensKansas State0.675
Paul Hubbard2008191BrownsWisconsin0.673
Vidal Hazelton2011270UDFACincinnati0.671
Kevin Jurovich2010270UDFASan Jose State0.67
Aaron Pflugrad2012270UDFAArizona State0.669
Rodney Smith2013270UDFAFlorida Strate0.669
D.J. Coles2014Virginia Tech0.663
Devon Smith2014Marshall0.662
Steve Breaston2007142CardinalsMichigan0.662
Keith Smith2011270UDFAPurdue0.662
Taylor Stockemer2013270UDFAArkansas State0.661
Greg Childs2012134VikingsArkansas0.657
Jheranie Boyd2013270UDFANorth Carolina0.656
Bert Reed2012270UDFAFlorida State0.654
Jon Davis2007270UDFAIowa State0.652
Joe West2008270UDFATexas-El Paso0.652
Hubert Anyiam2012270UDFAOklahoma State0.651
Trey Stross2010270UDFAIowa0.65
Jarrett Hicks2007270UDFATexas Tech0.65
Nyan Boateng2010270UDFACalifornia0.65
Bradon Godfrey2009270UDFAUtah0.649
Darrell Blackman2008270UDFANorth Carolina State0.646
Terrell Zachery2011270UDFAAuburn0.642
Demarco Sampson2011249CardinalsSan Diego State0.637
Matt Caddell2008270UDFAAlabama0.635
Rodgeriqus Smith2009270UDFAAuburn0.63
Keith Nichol2012270UDFAMichigan State0.624
Lance Leggett2008270UDFAMiami (FL)0.624
Charlie Moore2014Oklahoma State0.622
Patrick Williams2009270UDFAColorado0.621
Josh Cooper2012270UDFAOklahoma State0.617
Lorne Sam2008270UDFATexas-El Paso0.617
Roy Roundtree2013270UDFAMichigan0.615
Michael Calvin2012270UDFACalifornia0.613
Kevin Norwood2014Alabama0.611
Jarred Fayson2011270UDFAIllinois0.611
David Ausberry2011241RaidersUSC0.611
Willie Reid200695SteelersFlorida State0.61
Tyshon Goode2014Kent State0.607
Rudy Burgess2008270UDFAArizona State0.603
Jeron Harvey2008270UDFAHouston0.603
Daryle Hawkins2014Oregon0.602
Brent Casteel2009270UDFAUtah0.595
James Finley2007270UDFAOregon0.593
Quron Pratt2014Rutgers0.592
Brandon Kinnie2012270UDFANebraska0.585
Vinny Perretta2009270UDFABoise State0.583
Devon Wylie2012107ChiefsFresno State0.583
Michael Moore2010270UDFAGeorgia0.569
D.J. Banks2014Louisiana Tech0.559
Kenneth Harris2009270UDFAGeorgia0.559
Matt Austin2013270UDFAUtah State0.556
Russell Shepard2013270UDFALouisiana State0.553
Roberto Wallace2010270UDFASan Diego State0.55
Larry Taylor2008270UDFAConnecticut0.549
Donte Moore2014Rice0.549
Terrance Turner2011270UDFAIndiana0.548
Darryl Stonum2013270UDFABaylor0.546
Marquis Maze2012270UDFAAlabama0.545
Jimmy Young2011270UDFATCU0.545
Taylor Embree2012270UDFAUCLA0.539
Rantavious Wooten2014Georgia0.539
Dustin Woods2010270UDFAMiami (OH)0.535
Quentin Chaney2009270UDFAOklahoma0.533
Darnell Jenkins2008270UDFAMiami (FL)0.53
Jeremy Ross2011270UDFACalifornia0.527
David Nelson2010270UDFAFlorida0.524
Quan Cosby2009270UDFATexas0.524
Quintin McCree2012270UDFAMaryland0.523
Sam Kirkland2012270UDFAKent State0.522
Ray Small2010270UDFAOhio State0.519
Ja-Mes Logan2014Ole Miss0.512
Omarius Hines2013270UDFAFlorida0.512
Kevin Cummings2014Oregon State0.508
C.J. Hawthorne2008270UDFAHawaii0.508
Tyron Carrier2012270UDFAHouston0.506
Clyde Gates2011111DolphinsAbilene Christian0.498
Jahkeen Gilmore2007270UDFAIndiana0.498
Marcus Everett2009270UDFAUCLA0.493
Britt Davis2009270UDFANorthern Illinois0.492
Marcus Fitzgerald2008270UDFAMarshall0.486
Jaron Brown2013270UDFAClemson0.466
Luther Ambrose2012270UDFALouisiana-Monroe0.465
Kenbrell Thompkins2013270UDFACincinnati0.464
Jamayel Smith2009270UDFAMississippi State0.459
Sean Fitzgerald2014Utah0.455
Jerramy Scott2007270UDFAMichigan State0.44
London Crawford2010270UDFAArkansas0.432
Billy Pittman2008270UDFATexas0.402
Gary Banks2008270UDFATroy0.401
McKay Jacobson2012270UDFABrigham Young0.395
George Smith2009270UDFAVanderbilt0.393

For the discerning reader, some of these numbers might look a little different than the original article.  I realized the need for a slight tweak which changed some of these numbers by a few decimal points.


Jon Moore is a coach at RotoAcademy and creator of The College Football Experiment.  Continue this conversation with him on Twitter or Google+.

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