I hope everyone has been enjoying our WR Prospect Sweet 16 Tournament. Hopefully the commentary will give you some insight into the thinking of some of the writers here at RotoViz. In case you missed any of the previous matchups feel free to click below:
(1) Sammy Watkins vs. (16) Jeff Janis
With a classic big school versus small school flare, this match-up features the media darling Watkins as a heavy favorite. Watkins has been on everyone’s radar since he burst on the scene his freshman year. Janis has never really been on the radar until the combine, where he put up some eye-popping numbers. At least one of our writers may surprise you in the breakdown of this latest installment.
This is fairly simple and is the kind of pick where you shouldn’t outsmart yourself. Watkins will probably be a top 10 pick, has a decent resume of college production and is physically suited for NFL production. Will he be overdrafted? Possibly. Will he produce more than Jeff Janis? Almost certainly.
It has to be Watkins, obviously, but I kind of hate that Janis was down at 16. In my rookie drafts, I’ll probably end up taking him over quite a few players who get drafted higher in the NFL draft, but it is a near certainty that just due to opportunity, Watkins has a better career.
Whiskey Tango Foxtrot
It may seem like I hate Sammy Watkins, but I really don’t. I just think the hype train is a little bit out of control because people compare him to Julio Jones or AJ Green despite the fact he’s a full two inches shorter and 20+ lbs lighter than those guys. Sammy will probably have a very nice career, but I’m not convinced he’s the best prospect in this draft. I am convinced that he beats Jeff Janis easily in this matchup.
Classic small school prospect versus potential top five pick in the draft, this is a runaway for Watkins even if I don’t believe he’s the best receiver in this class. I’m taking Watkins but Janis will be worth taking in rookie drafts if he can make his way into the top four rounds of the NFL draft. I’m confident Ted Thompson has a RotoViz subscription based on his previous selections of Greg Jennings, Jordy Nelson, James Jones, Jarrett Boykin and Charles Johnson, so marrying Janis and Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay seems like destiny.
No 16 seed upset here. Team Watkins’ starters haven’t played since the first half. Watkins is slightly overrated based on his current ADP and Janis is probably underrated, but Watkins is the clear winner here. Janis could turn out to be a fantasy option in a few years, but its likely going to take some time since he won’t be drafted early. Watkins will likely go to a team where he’ll contribute right away and be worth a look in fantasy from week to week in his rookie year. I’ll take Watkins’ floor over Janis’ upside.
While Janis has everything you would want out of a small school super sleeper, that’s just what he is: a “Super Sleeper.” Sammy Watkins looks very much like DeAndre Hopkins, as Jon Moore pointed out. Sammy’s ADP may be higher than I’m willing to pay, but when compared to Janis in a heads up matchup I have to go with Team Watkins. That being said I plan on owning a few shares of Janis this year…he’s a great penny stock to add to your RotoViz Reach Portfolio.
Give me Janis!!! At the combine, Watkins ran a 4.43 40 at 211 lbs; Janis, a 4.42 40 at 219 lbs. I grant that Janis is older than Watkins, but the last two years he’s averaged 1600-16 performances, and here are his DRs for the last three years: 45.24 (2013), 55.1 (2012), 40.59 (2011). That’s some hot in-your face action much better than what Watkins has done the last few years. So Janis is more athletic, and he was a better producer in college. Basically, he’s Miles Austin. Watkins is an obvious NFL option and so will cost a top 3 pick in rookie drafts. Janis is ignored and so will be cheap. I pick Janis because I think he’s one of the premier arbitrage opportunities in the 2014 class. He may not have as much value as Watkins, but he’s more valuable.
There has yet to be a 16 seed upset of the top dog. The RotoViz bracket is no different. Sammy Watkins is being touted by some in the media as the “Best WR prospect since Megatron.” That is a hefty evaluation. The real take away from this match-up should be some of the commentary by Matthew Freedman. Jeff Janis has the size, production and explosiveness that you would want in a WR. He should make a great dynasty developmental stash at a cheap price. The fact that Freedman is willing to take Janis over Watkins should peak your interest enough by itself to dig a bit deeper into this small school sleeper.
Feel free to taunt Mr. Freedman in the comments section below or pick his brain @MattFtheOracle on Twitter.