revolutionary tools.  groundbreaking articles.  proven results.

Quincy Enunwa is the Ultimate Lottery Ticket

On most NFL Draft websites you will find Quincy Enunwa ranked as a late-round prospect, who some think might go undrafted. Typically, players drafted late have a tougher time sticking in the NFL, but, as you will soon learn, Enunwa isn’t your typical player; he has some extraordinary attributes. This combination of low expectations and fantastic upside is why Quincy Enunwa is the ultimate lottery ticket.

The first thing that caught my attention was his membership in the 10-110 club.  What the heck is that, you ask?At the NFL Combine he ran the 40-yard dash in 4.45 seconds while weighing 225 lbs.  This gives him a speed score of 114.8. Because he was hurt shortly after running the sprint, basically the only thing we know about him (until his April 17 pro day) is his speed.

The other thing about Enunwa is that he scored 12 touchdowns in 2013.  So, just for fun I filtered my WR database of  500+ receivers by two factors: players who caught more than 10 touchdowns in their final season while also achieving a speed score over 110.  This is just a silly exercise and by no means should be seen as a Quincy Enunwa comparables list, which will come later in the article.  Say hello to the 10-110 club.

WRSpeed ScoreFinal Season TDsDraft PickPhenom Index
Quincy Enunwa114.812???1.71
Calvin Johnson133.51522.51
Leonard Hankerson111.513791.8
James Hardy110.716411.68
Pierre Garcon110.0142051.62
Robert Meachem115.211271.44
Dwight Jones111.212UDFA1.16
Marko Mitchell113.2102430.98
Cylde Gates111.3131110.50

The fact that there are only nine players in this club is pretty remarkable.  If we wanted to nitpick and eliminate FCS players Garcon and Gates the club would get even more exclusive. Of the four players who have the most comparable profiles to Enunwa (Hankerson, Hardy, Garcon, Meachem) three were selected in the top 80 picks. Ironically, the one who was drafted lower (Garcon) has had the best career.

To be perfectly clear, I am not saying that it would be a good thing for Enunwa’s career to turn out like Hankerson’s, Hardy’s or Meachem’s. By most accounts they have been underwhelming pros. What I am trying to say is that Enunwa belongs to a comparable group that projects him more like a top-80 pick, which is a far cry from the might-go-undrafted treatment he is getting now. This is what I mean by lottery ticket. The cost to play is cheap. The upside is huge.

The Quincy Enunwa Comparables

The main tool I used for finding Enunwa’s comparables is the Phenom Index.  This metric allows us to adjust production based on a player’s age. From there, I filtered by prospects who weighed more than 215 lbs to generate the following list.

WRWtPhenom IndexCareer Yds/GCareer RZ TD%
Quincy Enunwa2251.7137.248%
Da'Rick Rogers2171.8760.050%
James Hardy2171.6883.041%
Brandon Marshall2291.7038.038%
Michael Crabtree2151.68120.337%
Cody Latimer2151.6263.835%
Malcolm Kelly2241.6965.330%
Chris Matthews2181.7051.230%
Jonathan Baldwin2281.6259.98%

The two most striking names on this list are Michael Crabtree and Brandon Marshall. Note that this is the second time Enunwa has drawn a Brandon Marshall comparison.  I also think it’s pretty interesting that Cody Latimer shows up here. In his own right, Latimer had some surprisingly good comparables, but is being talked about as a top-50 pick. Why would you do that when Enunwa can be had much later? What I love most about Quincy is his red zone dominance. For his career he converted 11 of 23 red zone targets into touchdowns, which is an elite rate. If you want to do your own research on red zone targets, you should try this WR tool.  If there is one reason to really pump the brakes on Enunwa, it’s his limited track record before 2013. That said, Brandon Marshall also had a low yards-per-game number for his career and he’s worked out just fine. Bottom line: his high upside and low expectations make Quincy Enunwa a great receiver to gamble on later in the draft.

Jon Moore is a contributor at RotoViz and a coach at RotoAcademy.  Continue this conversation with him on Twitter or Google+.

recent and related...

in case you missed it...

Putting 2019 in Context: Is the Running Back Dead Zone Dead?

Last July, I wrote an article about the running back dead zone — basically, RBs picked in Rounds 3 through 6 have busted at incredible rates since 2015. That article — along with several others which had similar findings — fundamentally changed my strategy in best ball drafts. Oops.1 Leonard

Read More

Sign-up today for our free Premium Email subscription!

© 2019 RotoViz. All rights Reserved.