(2) Mike Evans vs. (11) Donte Moncrief
The top seed left in this draft, Mike Evans has cruised past each match-up he has faced. In this tournament Moncrief has been the Cinderella as the 11 seed has been able to knock of each opponent. Both players played in the SEC, so there is plenty of mutual opponents to evaluate both players.
Much like the Evans and Robinson match-up, there isn’t going to be a way for Moncrief to beat out Evans in a one-on-one match-up. There’s no denying the fact that Moncrief is going to go later than Evans and could very well end up being as productive as Evans throughout his career. But he already approached the final table with a smaller stack than Evans in almost every category. If Moncrief is able to bring a buddy on the court and take him on two-to-one, then there’s a shot. If I have the 1.1 or the 1.2, there’s a chance that I trade back with an opportunity to pick up 2 picks later in the round. With that not being the scenario in this matchup, Evans is going to advance to the next round, but Moncrief should keep his head up high because it’s going to be a bright future.
Moncrief has everything you’d want out of a “take a swing” prospect. He’s going to have a favorable price tag in both drafts, has the requisite physical profile and athletic measurables as well as showing production versus top competition at a young age. He does have some warts. The scouting crowd points to his inability to play up to his size and win contested catch situations. His poor red zone efficiency and small hand size back this up. I will still own my fair amount of shares of Moncrief, but Evans has the profile and goods that he’ll be drafted with the intent to play a big role from day one.
WHISKEY TANGO FOXTROT
Moncrief’s struggles in the red zone, and inside the ten, concern me. He could be a good value if you get him for your second round pick, but there’s a lot of risk there that Evans doesn’t seem to have.
This is an easy match-up for me. Evans is simply bigger and better than Moncrief, period. In the head-to-head match-up when Ole Miss played Texas A & M, Moncrief went 1 catch for 3 yards. Evans is simply too big and too athletic of a prospect in this case to pass up. I think Moncrief certainly has value for players looking to draft him, but falls short on upside against Evans. I am moving Evans ahead to the Finals.
I don’t think it’s really arguable that Evans is both the more polished of these two players, and also likely has the most upside going forward. I would estimate the odds that he has a better career than Moncrief at around 80%. I actually liked Moncrief a lot more a week ago when I was watching a bunch of DraftBreakdown cutups of him and he looked like he could get by any d-back. Then I realized that he averaged about 40 yards receiving in the games not featured on DraftBreakdown and I had fallen for the old selection bias trap. Also I’m probably the least qualified person in the world to actually evaluate players by watching them. Give me Evans in this matchup based on draft position and production.
Evans is quite simply the top prospect left in this tournament. Do you want to be the guy that passed up on the next Brandon Marshall? That is how I feel about Evans. Moncrief definitely has value. I would be more than happy to end up with Moncrief at the end of the first or top of the second in dynasty rookie drafts. Both players are top prospects at WR in this draft which is why they have made it this far in our tournament. Evans will move on to meet Cooks in the finals.