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A Brief History of the Eric Decker Test: 2014 Edition

rsz_eric_decker_test_history

One of my favorite things about writing for RotoViz in 2013 was the response to this Eric Decker breakout article, which later became known as the Eric Decker Test (EDT). If you aren’t familiar with it, the Eric Decker Test is a fun way to look at the numbers from the WR Career Graph App and use them to project which wide receivers might breakout to become stars. Some of the most notable test passers include Dez Bryant, Brandon Marshall and, of course, Eric Decker. You can see the full list below, including the 2014 rookies, but first a bit on the methodology.

So, what the hell is the “Eric Decker Test”?  Did you ever hear of the 26-27-60 “rule” for scouting quarterbacks?  Well, this is kind of like that, but for wide receivers.  Here are the criteria with a brief explanation:

  • 30% Market Share of Yards
  • 40% Market Share of Touchdowns
  • 9.5 yards per target
  • 33% Red Zone TD Rate

The market share numbers go something like this: On any given play there are five possible receivers and if the quarterback distributes the ball evenly, they’d all have 20% market share of yards and touchdowns. That said, we want someone who is so good that they produce an inordinate amount of their team’s yards and, more so, their team’s touchdowns. If a guy isn’t the #1 receiver on his own college team, how will he ever be a #1 in the NFL?

The YPT makes sense from the perspective of “for every time I throw the ball to this receiver, there’s a pretty good chance he’ll get us a first down, or close to it”. Finally, think of the red zone TD rate from the perspective of it being first & goal and you get three chances to throw the ball to your favorite receiver. He should convert one of those three (33%) into a touchdown, right?

So, without further adieu, here is the complete list of players who passed the Eric Decker Test since 2005 and their peak fantasy season to date.  Note that a peak rank of 200 indicates the guy never did anything in the NFL.

WRDraftF AgeWeightPeak FF rank
BRANDIN COOKS201420.3189
DAVANTE ADAMS201421.0212
JARVIS LANDRY201421.1205
ALEX NEUTZ201422.8214
DEANDRE HOPKINS201320.6214
STEDMAN BAILEY201322.1193
BRANDON MARSHALL200621.82292
DWAYNE BOWE200722.32212
JORDY NELSON200822.62172
DEZ BRYANT201021.22243
SIDNEY RICE200720.32008
HAKEEM NICKS200921.02128
ERIC DECKER201022.82178
TORREY SMITH201121.920420
ROBERT MEACHEM200722.321422
JUSTIN BLACKMON201222.020728
AUSTIN COLLIE200923.120033
JORDAN SHIPLEY201024.019358
LEONARD HANKERSON201121.920962
JOHNNIE LEE HIGGINS200723.318690
ALDRICK ROBINSON201122.318492
JARETT DILLARD200923.0191103
MARCUS EASLEY201022.2210188
JEREMY EBERT201222.7200200
DWIGHT JONES201223.0230200
TAVEON ROGERS201221.4190200
JOVON BOUKNIGHT200622.5195200

Seven of the 21 multi-year pros have posted a top-8 fantasy season and I wouldn’t be surprised if Torrey Smith, DeAndre Hopkins or maybe Justin Blackmon join that group. Considering how few players actually pass the test, I think that’s at least a respectable success rate. If you look at the guys who were irrelevant in the NFL, I think the commonalities would be that they were older prospects and/or had narrow frames. Hankerson and Easley don’t fit either of those categories, but dealt with injuries that presumably derailed their careers.

What does the Eric Decker Test tell us about 2014 rookies?

Brandin Cooks
I recently named Brandin Cooks the must-know rookie for fantasy football 2014 due to his outrageous Phenom Index score and his spectacular landing spot with the Saints. If you’re looking for an immediate impact, Scott Smith expects Cooks to post something around 800 yards and 5 touchdowns in his rookie campaign with upside to burn. In the long run, Cooks will be an interesting test case for the EDT because he is smaller than all the premium success stories that have come before him. All the same, the fact that he is ranked 4th overall in our rookie composite rankings reflects RotoViz’s optimistic outlook for his career.

Davante Adams
This is THE GUY that most closely fits the Eric Decker/Hakeem Nicks/Jordy Nelson mold as far as size and EDT success. In case Justin Winn didn’t already vaporize all doubts about Davante, his appearance on this list should eliminate any lingering negativity. Oh, and did I mention that he gets to study under fellow EDT stud Jordan Nelson? Similar to Jordy, the payoff with Davante might not come for several years, but I sincerely believe the wait will be worth the payoff and the potential for a top-10 WR season is very real.

Jarvis Landry
Is Jarvis Landry the 2014 version of Keenan Allen? I think he could be in the sense that his on-field metrics are so spectacular but his workout numbers are so depressing. Despite how unathletic he seems to be, there’s something to be said for a guy who was athletic enough to kick major ass in the SEC. If he can do it there, why not in the NFL? Maybe the payoff won’t be as immediate as Keenan Allen, but his appearance here combined with his intriguing prospect report card leave me encouraged. Plus, it’s not like the Dolphins are brimming with WR talent; Landry should see plenty of opportunities.

Alex Neutz
You might be wondering, “who the hell is Alex Neutz?” which is a perfectly reasonable question for anyone who doesn’t live in upstate NY and/or isn’t a RotoViz degenerate.1 The short story on Neutz is that he’s the most prolific market share dominator that you’ve probably never heard of who just landed in a quirky situation in Cincinnati. We all love AJ Green, but I suppose that everything after him is debatable. Now add in a new offensive coordinator and, who knows, maybe Neutz could surprise for the Bengals over the next few years.

Will it be Torrey Smith, DeAndre Hopkins or maybe a 2014 rookie who is the next to post a top-10 WR season? Leave a comment with your thoughts. And in case you want to dig into the data, here’s the dirt on past Eric Decker Test receivers:

WRDraftF AgeF TGS/GSCHOOLYPTRZTDRmsYDSmsTD
BRANDIN COOKS201420.312.9Oregon State10.333.335.742.1
DAVANTE ADAMS201421.013.5Fresno State9.936.133.650.0
JARVIS LANDRY201421.18.0LSU11.540.036.643.5
ALEX NEUTZ201422.87.8Buffalo10.042.934.748.0
DEANDRE HOPKINS201320.69.8Clemson11.053.833.645.0
STEDMAN BAILEY201322.111.2West Virginia11.158.338.056.8
TAVEON ROGERS201221.48.7New Mexico State10.150.032.245.0
JUSTIN BLACKMON201222.012.3Oklahoma State9.534.330.245.0
JEREMY EBERT201222.78.1Northwestern10.060.031.942.3
DWIGHT JONES201223.08.5North Carolina10.850.036.246.2
TORREY SMITH201121.98.2Maryland10.043.837.844.4
LEONARD HANKERSON201121.99.0Miami (Florida)9.938.937.261.9
ALDRICK ROBINSON201122.38.9SMU10.541.733.945.2
DEZ BRYANT201021.29.3Oklahoma State11.550.053.780.0
MARCUS EASLEY201022.26.8Connecticut11.960.034.857.1
ERIC DECKER201022.89.5Minnesota10.036.450.862.5
JORDAN SHIPLEY201024.010.5Texas10.136.838.844.8
HAKEEM NICKS200921.08.1North Carolina11.642.947.357.1
JARETT DILLARD200923.010Rice10.150.030.841.7
AUSTIN COLLIE200923.111.6BYU10.253.338.142.9
JORDY NELSON200822.613.4Kansas State10.134.847.352.4
SIDNEY RICE200720.38.8South Carolina9.641.733.441.7
DWAYNE BOWE200722.37.5LSU10.153.330.340.0
ROBERT MEACHEM200722.38.8Tennessee11.433.337.845.8
JOHNNIE LEE HIGGINS200723.39.7UTEP11.445.535.144.8
BRANDON MARSHALL200621.88.9UCF10.337.539.245.8
JOVON BOUKNIGHT200622.510.2Wyoming10.033.341.366.7


Jon Moore is a contributor at RotoViz and a coach at RotoAcademy.  Continue this conversation with him on Twitter or Google+.

  1. I mean that in the best way  (back)

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