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Using the Sim Score App to Make an Early QB Cheat Sheet

andydalton

Originally, I intended to title this piece “Andy Dalton is All Upside With Just a Dash of Ginger” because that’s a killer title for a piece and I wanted to highlight the discrepancy between Andy Dalton’s current ADP1 and his actual production. However, in providing evidence for that piece, I created a table of all the QB Sim Scores and that’s probably something that even non-Dalton lovers are interested in so I’ll avoid burying the lead and push the strong material to the forefront.

Some Methodology and Recognition of the Fact That You’ve Seen This Before

Earlier this month, the FantasyDouche created a similar table to explore the differences between QB value and QB ADP. I always love tables that use the projection tools on the site so this version just takes it a bit further. I created this table by grabbing the N+1 projections for a collection of QBs in the QB Sim Score App. I added every QB that attempted at least as many passes as Blaine Gabbert because I had to stop somewhere and that seemed like the bottom of the barrel.

I included all of the projections for each player.2 Unlike the Douche’s previous results, I made no effort at all to clean up projections on any of these players as I didn’t want to get bogged down in chasing the details. For example, a few players like Jay Cutler and Aaron Rodgers were knocked out of games early but those games are still included.3 Other players started the year as backups and had some spot duty before really winning the job. Then there are those that may have made token appearances in meaningless late season games.

I made no effort to cull these out. However, armed with this type of insider knowledge, you could go over to the App yourself and adjust any player to your heart’s content and see how they stack up to this unfiltered list. A few comments are added after the table and keep in mind that I play in a lot of superflex leagues4 so my QB radar is easily excitable and I’m paying attention to guys much further down the list than you may be.

Here’s a primer on using the sim scores yourself. These are great tools and the list below is no substitute. The sim scores look at a set of players that had similar seasons to a given result and then compare that to what they did in the following season. This has the benefit of setting expectations about the range of outcomes you can expect from a player, but it has limitations as well since it doesn’t have any context about what may be changing in an individual player’s situation. It doesn’t know that players have switched teams, upgraded offensive lines or added/lost weapons. So, use the tools responsibly and apply your own knowledge of each player’s current context. Using the app directly will show you the comp list for each player and give you an idea of the specific outcomes for other similar players. Again, these are great tools and you should take advantage of them. Hopefully, this will serve to whet your appetite.

But First, Let’s Talk Andy Dalton

Basically, all of this was said by Shawn Siegele last offseason:

When you draft Dalton, you get him at a discount to his 2012 results and receive his breakout potential entirely for free.

That was the 2013 version. Dalton finished 15th among QBs his rookie year, 12th in his sophomore season5 and 5th last year. He’s currently being drafted 20th among QBs which is actually lower than he was last year despite having just had another pretty nice year. I don’t understand.6 In the table below, Dalton checks in at 7th overall for his median projection next season in both 4 and 6 point passing TD scoring systems. His low projection is 8th in 6 point leagues and 9th in 4 point leagues.

Concerned that he lacks all of that sexy upside you’ve been hearing about from the kids? He’s 8th if you sort by the high end of projections in 4 point passing leagues though he does fall to 11th in 6 point TD leagues. That’s the first chink in his armor and you’ll note that 11th is still way higher than 20th. In most every category he checks in right between Aaron Rogers and Andrew Luck. What’s not to like about this guy? He’s kind of like Tom Brady. He knows how to take advantage of his weapons. He has hidden talents and he’s been known to dole out cases of ginger fever. Again, I just don’t understand why his dynasty value is so low, but who cares, just draft him late and enjoy. He checked in at number four in the Douche’s previous piece mentioned above.

Oh Yeah, that Table

PlayerLow
(PTDs=4)
Median
(PTDs=4)
High
(PTDs=4)
Low
(PTDs=6)
Median
(PTDs=6)
High
(PTDs=6)
Peyton Manning17.820.624.621.224.129.5
Drew Brees18.219.720.921.423.125
Philip Rivers18.219.720.921.623.424.6
Cam Newton15.219.620.917.722.823.5
Russell Wilson16.419.620.91922.823.8
Aaron Rodgers16.51920.519.222.624.1
Andy Dalton1618.920.419.122.123.6
Andrew Luck17.618.420.120.321.823.4
Alex Smith16.818.320.919.221.524.9
Nick Foles14.918.320.117.621.223.5
Tony Romo16.218.320.219.521.624.1
Colin Kaepernick13.618.219.815.12122.8
Sam Bradford14.417.820.216.920.723.7
Matt Ryan1617.519.919.121.224
Ben Roethlisberger15.217.219.518.220.423
Matthew Stafford13.717.220.416.220.424
Robert Griffin14.216.819.916.519.223.3
Tom Brady11.916.619.513.919.622.7
Ryan Tannehill15.416.518.817.419.822.5
Eli Manning13.416.218.215.118.921.5
Mike Glennon14.516.217.917.118.821.4
Ryan Fitzpatrick12.916.118.214.917.821.5
Carson Palmer13.71619.615.819.123.1
Joe Flacco13.415.41815.717.421.4
Jay Cutler11.615.217.213.317.420.4
Josh McCown13.114.916.215.317.619.2
Geno Smith11.514.615.61316.818.1
EJ Manuel1214.416.313.616.218.6
Brian Hoyer10.514.215.712.516.318.2
Terrelle Pryor12.114.116.813.415.818.9
Chad Henne1213.716.213.61618.8
Matt Schaub10.713.715.913.215.918.9
Jake Locker4.613.315.65.614.817.7
Mike Vick10.313.3171214.818.9
Jason Campbell11.41314.613.31516.5
Case Keenum10.712.914.613.214.616.3
Christian Ponder7.51214.78.513.317
Matt Cassel8.41213.31013.615.5
Brandon Weeden8.411.814.210.413.616.3
Matt McGloin4.911.814.45.71416.9
Scott Tolzien5.311.814.25.314.116.3
Matt Flynn5.111.412.96.113.314.9
Kirk Cousins6.110.613.96.813.116.5
Kellen Clemens5.89.712.96.411.414.8
Josh Freeman2.19.714.12.111.116.3
Blaine Gabbert3.29.713.94.210.716.3
Thaddeus Lewis0.8414.10.95.115.6

  • Philip Rivers doesn’t fare much better than Dalton in ADP7, but he’s a bit older so I get it. However, his 2014 projection is identical to Drew Brees in 4 point TD leagues. In 6 point TD leagues he actually bests Brees in the low and median projections, meaning that the sim scores like him as a safer short term pick than Drew Brees.
  • I don’t know that the App is entirely fair to running QBs so take the Newton/RGIII/Kaepernick type rankings with a grain of salt.
  • Jay Cutler and Josh McCown essentially split snaps in Marc Trestman’s offense last year and McCown was seen as a stronger fantasy play, but his sim score projection trails Cutler even before you factor in the new offense he may be piloting in Tampa. Both of them trail Mike Glennon who has been compared to Dalton himself and may be an interesting stash.
  • Ryan Fitzpatrick’s projections track closely with Tom Brady. The Texans jettisoned Schaub and didn’t draft a QB till late. Fitzpatrick may get a chance to throw passes to Andre Johnson and DeAndre Hopkins. I wouldn’t draft him anywhere near Brady, but in leagues that play a lot of QBs, he’s a sneaky flyer.
  • Alex Smith and Sam Bradford represent other ADP discount opportunities for those that like to wait on QBs.
  • Matt Ryan and Matthew Stafford are the reverse as both have projected finishes that trail their current ADP.
  • The QB landscape is pretty flat which reinforces the notion of waiting on the position especially in shallow leagues where you only need to play one. You may find waiver wire wonders as good as any starter if you’re talking 10 team redraft.
  • Those last three bullet points are also highlighted in that previous piece I keep mentioning.

This was an interesting exercise and I’ll likely follow up with similar write-ups using the WR, RB, and TE sim score apps.

  1. QB20 just behind Blake Bortles  (back)
  2. high, median and low for both 4 and 6 point passing TD leagues  (back)
  3. You don’t need me to tell you that Aaron Rodgers is good  (back)
  4. you can start 2 QBs  (back)
  5. prior to that article above  (back)
  6. what the hell is going on?  (back)
  7. currently he’s 18th  (back)

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