revolutionary tools.  groundbreaking articles.  proven results.

Da’Rick Rogers Is(n’t) a Bargain: Two RotoViz Bros Debate
via colts.com
via colts.com

For the first three parts to this Kerrane Brothers debate series check out Greg Jennings, Kendall Wright, and DeAndre Hopkins.

The Case for Da’Rick Rogers (Pat Kerrane)

The best part about drafting Da’Rick Rogers is that you don’t have to draft him.  When you google “Da’Rick Rogers ADP”, this is the 1st result:

couchAnd if you’ve read pretty much any article on RotoViz, you know we like free stuff.  And we especially like free stuff when the stuff in question is a big WR with a good QB.

You may know Da’Rick Rogers as an undrafted free agent who was kicked off his college team and spent most of last year on the practice squad. But before that he was a pretty intriguing prospect, with physical ability near that of Julio Jones and the 6th highest Phenom Index in last year’s rookie class.1

Let’s take a look at his physical ability compared to Colts’ 3rd round pick Donte Moncrief (aka. Cheat Code).

Player

Height

Weight

40 time

Bench Press

Vertical Jump

Broad Jump

3 Cone Drill

Short Shuttle

Agility Score

Da’Rick Rogers

 6′ 2″

217

4.52

10

 39½”

 132″

6.71

4.06

10.77

Donte Moncrief

 6′ 2″

221

4.4

13

 39½”

 132″

7.02

4.3

11.32

They’re like… the same guy, except Moncrief is faster and Rogers bests him in agility.  Maybe you think it’s not a great sign for Rogers that the Colts drafted a faster, younger version of him this year. I agree. In dynasty I think Moncrief is the player you’d rather own.2 This year however, Rogers has the upper hand with a year of NFL experience and a full offseason in the Colts system. It’s possible that Moncrief passes him on the depth chart this year, but Rogers is athletic enough that we shouldn’t assume that as the outcome.

What about Reggie Wayne, Hakeem Nicks and TY Hilton?  Well, there’s no real reason to doubt that Hilton will be a solid WR this year, but Nicks and Wayne have real question marks that may create opportunity for Rogers. Wayne has to fight against inevitable age based decline, and do so while recovering from an ACL tear he suffered last October. Nicks also has health concerns, in addition to struggling with inconsistency for the past several seasons. But even if everyone stays healthy and productive this year, Rogers has something that may get him on the field regardless—elite agility.

Rogers timed agility is Bishop Sankey level good.  In case you don’t know, that means it’s better than agility super-star RBs like Jamaal Charles, Matt Forte, Ray Rice, Gio Bernard, and LeSean Mccoy. Rogers can provide game breaking, contact avoiding, YAC ability that Indy is simply not going to get from Nicks, Wayne or even Hilton.3 If the Colts realize what Rogers can do with the ball in his hands, he won’t need anyone to get hurt or be ineffective, his own unique talent will create the opportunity he needs.

Speaking of his role on the Colts, he played in 5 games for them last year, how did he do? In a word: well. Andrew Luck posted a very respectable 7.95 AYA along with 172 yards and 2 TDs when targeting Rogers. In fact, what he did with his limited opportunities last has the WR Sim Score App seeing stars:

darickrogers

Yep, there’s 2013 Josh Gordon again, plus 2013 Alshon Jeffery, Braylon Edwards’ career year and Larry Fitzgerald’s first 1400 yard campaign. Pretty good company. Now, Mike’s going to explain that these comparisons are the result of a small sample size and that if Rogers turns out like anyone on this list it’s going to be Ronald Curry. Guess what? He’s probably right. But what I’m saying is that Da’Rick Rogers is a free couch that could turn into a fantasy super-star. I don’t know about you, but I’m taking a minute to load that free couch into the bed of my pickup truck.4

The Case Against Da’Rick Rogers (Mike Kerrane)

Really Pat? You’re going to make me argue against free? Is this whole article just an attempt to make me look bad because I broke your Space Jam CD when I was seven? You asshole.

Fine, here goes:

Nothing is free in fantasy football. Everything costs something, whether it’s a draft pick, a FAAB dollar, or a roster spot.5 The mere act of rostering a player comes at an opportunity cost, and I know this first hand as someone who has played with Pat in multiple leagues. I have seen that man fiend over roster spots so badly that even this guy was concerned.

As far as Da’Rick himself, I agree completely that he’s a dynasty buy at his current price. For now though, I’m just not seeing how he gets involved enough to where you’d feel comfortable starting him.

His physical numbers are impressive, no doubt. But we all know that the NFL is not a true meritocracy, and like it or not, Wayne and Nicks are on this roster in 2014. It’s hard to imagine the Colts completely benching a future hall of famer, especially one that caught over 100 balls from Luck two years ago. And if a big, physical, outside receiver is going to shine in this offense, the house money is on the 26 year old that has back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons on his resume.

It depends on your roster size and team construction, but in redraft you may be better off using that spot to handcuff one of your players, or even just keeping it open for streaming purposes.

Well, there you have it.  Thanks for reading and let us know who you agree with in the comments!

  1. His Phenom Index Score is higher than notable 2013 rookies like Tavon Austin, Cordarrelle Patterson, Justin Hunter, Terrance Williams, and Aaron Dobson.  (back)
  2. Rogers is a solid value in dynasty though, going ~65 picks later than Moncrief. And if everything breaks right (Wayne retires, Nicks signs elsewhere) both players could be starting by next year.  (back)
  3. Or Trent Richardson for that matter.  (back)
  4. I don’t even own a car, much less a pickup truck. But you know what? It’s called a metaphor. Also Da’Rick Rogers is not, in actuality, a free couch.  (back)
  5. Or your self-respect, when you find yourself looking up stats about Jordan Todman at 2:30 in the morning.  (back)

recent and related...

in case you missed it...

College Football DFS Main Slate: Week 11

Welcome to college football DFS for Week 11 and another main slate take down. This is your one stop shop for Cash and GPP plays for the main slate of this crazy CFB weekend! If you’ve been following along this season, we’ve had some crazy high hit rates on our

Read More

Week 10 Yahoo! DFS Picks

Identifying my Week 10 NFL DFS picks was easier than it’s ever been thanks to the continued work of our apps development team. The NFL Stat Explorer, the DFS Lineup Optimizer, and our world-famous Game Splits App are three windows I never close on my screen. Let’s build a plan

Read More

Week 10 Primetime Slate DFS Breakdown

Who are the best plays for the Week 10 DFS primetime slate on DraftKings and FanDuel? Tyler Loechner runs through notes on the primetime short slate featuring SNF/MNF games.1 DSF Week 10 Primetime Slate DFS Week 10 Primetime Slate theory thoughts: The games on this slate might not have “shootout”

Read More

Week 11 Waiver Wire Advice: Top Targets At Each Position

Looking for Week 10 waiver wire advice for fantasy football? You’ve come to the right place. We’ll give you some of the top targets at each position so that when you submit a waiver claim, you do it with confidence. This article will run through the top players available in

Read More
Connect
Support

rotovizmain@gmail.com

Sign-up today for our free Premium Email subscription!

© 2019 RotoViz. All rights Reserved.