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The Composite Re-draft WR Rankings

andrejohnson

The graph below is a visual representation of the positional make-up of the top 12 in ADP for each season going back to 2000.

pos_top_12_plot

You can see that the first round run on RBs peaked in 2005, slowly declined from there except for a brief resurgence in 2013, and that RBs make up the smallest share of first round picks at any time in recent fantasy history.

You can also see from the graph that ADP in 2014 has seen more than twice the number of WRs go compared to any time in recent fantasy history.

One of the most reliable things in fantasy football is that owners will try to win leagues this year using last year’s strategy. I’ve been guilty of that in the past. In 2011, hot off a league win that Arian Foster had carried me to, I spent most of my time looking for the next Arian Foster and landed erroneously on Felix Jones. In 2012 lots of people jumped on the early round QB strategy only to see RBs enjoy their resurgence. If I had to bet, I would say that when we look back at 2014, we won’t be talking about how drafting WR in the first round was the key to being a league winner.

That’s because the way that markets correct themselves negates the advantage of last year’s strategy. When people drafted QBs early in 2012 they sucked the actual value out of those QBs. Last year going RB early was popular even though the reason people felt comfortable doing it was not related to scarcity, it was related to what turned out to be a false feeling of safety.

So when you’re forming your WR strategy this year, I do think it’s worth remembering that last year already happened. We can’t draft a team and use it to win a league in 2013.

We have to figure out how to win a league in 2014. Last year I came really close to figuring out that RB/RB was a trap, even though I ultimately failed because 1) I ended up going RB/RB (and in some cases RB/RB/RB/RB) in about half of my leagues despite my reservations, and 2) I didn’t actually identify the correct alternate strategy as I thought that perhaps it might be a good time to take advantage of a cyclical low in the QB market. But I’ll be back at the drawing board this year trying to figure out if there’s a strategy that makes more sense than going WR early.

The rankers are: FD = Fantasy Douche, DM = Davis Mattek, MF = Matthew Freedman, SS = Shawn Siegele, SS2 = Scott Smith,JK = Jim Kloet, BF = Bryan Fontaine, AM = Aaron Messing, JB = Justin Bailey,  CR = the Composite Ranking

*Note that like most coverage on RotoViz, these rankings are implicitly PPR as that is the format that the writers play and also is the most common in online money contests.

PLAYERFDDMSSMFJKBFJBAMSS2CR
Johnson, Calvin DET WR1311111111
Thomas, Demaryius DEN WR2143224322
Bryant, Dez DAL WR3222443233
Green, A.J. CIN WR4434332644
Jones, Julio ATL WR5655965455
Marshall, Brandon CHI WR8777557566
Jeffery, Alshon CHI WR10566876877
Nelson, Jordy GBP WR68887910788
Brown, Antonio PIT WR1311101368813109
Allen, Keenan SDC WR1299926101311910
Garcon, Pierre WAS WR9151812101311101111
Cobb, Randall GBP WR1512161012119141312
Jackson, Vincent TBB WR71319159141691513
Cruz, Victor NYG WR11161114201715151414
Crabtree, Michael SFO WR16181218131914161715
Fitzgerald, Larry ARI WR2232131781219181816
Patterson, Cordarrelle MIN WR18171519151817172717
Harvin, Percy SEA WR19141720112018222217
Floyd, Michael ARI WR17102023342512121219
Johnson, Andre HOU WR14311416161525191620
Jackson, DeSean WAS WR23292524212120202021
Welker, Wes DEN WR38252122141623242422
Hilton, T.Y. IND WR24302311252421252523
Smith, Torrey BAL WR25282421282222211924
Decker, Eric NYJ WR20192225293027232125
White, Roddy ATL WR26262427172326233026
Edelman, Julian NEP WR28243028222624302927
Wright, Kendall TEN WR21272931372728262828
Hopkins, DeAndre HOU WR29203329304730242329
Wallace, Mike MIA WR30423232192931293030
Colston, Marques NOS WR27233138312839323431
Maclin, Jeremy PHI WR45433530183134272632
Tate, Golden DET WR37214141323333363833
Watkins, Sammy BUF WR36412726364135513134
Evans, Mike TBB WR46402834453732373235
Shorts, Cecil JAC WR39463436393837333736
Williams, Terrance DAL WR31339933383229283637
Bowe, Dwayne KCC WR32373654403445384038
Hunter, Justin TEN WR40223940475834344439
Wayne, Reggie IND WR41614037243942484240
Sanders, Emmanuel DEN WR43624351233543354341
Randle, Rueben NYG WR42393852644836313342
Nicks, Hakeem IND WR44384439744544413543
Cooper, Riley PHI WR47604253333661393944
Cooks, Brandin NOS WR49355743654340474145
Austin, Tavon STL WR48459935464438404646
Boldin, Anquan SFO WR50643745354253455246
Jones, Marvin CIN WR51365368484041544748
Dobson, Aaron NEP WR34475870524950435049
Amendola, Danny NEP WR52575956276149445150
Wheaton, Markus PIT WR53595455415747494851
Matthews, Jordan PHI WR35346244666952465652
Stills, Kenny NOS WR54585569444648424953
Jennings, Greg MIN WR33514759515357586054
Boykin, Jarrett GBP WR55635642425651505555
Hartline, Brian MIA WR56504658535159575356
Lee, Marqise JAC WR57486057496454555457
Benjamin, Kelvin CAR WR58496446505255665857
Jones, James OAK WR59674848435063686359
Baldwin, Doug SEA WR61684949556265616760
Woods, Robert BUF WR60664572616056675961
Beckham, Odell NYG WR62656371675458565762
Adams, Davante GBP WR64526147999962716263
Robinson, Allen JAC WR65566560997760596164
Williams, Mike BUF WR66547061996381486965
Holmes, Andre OAK WR70535164789972647266
Smith, Steve BAL WR67996799545964706667
Rogers, Da'Rick IND WR69557773629999606468
Gordon, Josh CLE WR63449979995587529969
Austin, Miles CLE WR75738065567370787370
Floyd, Malcom SDC WR73699963687268747771
Johnson, Stevie SFO WR71996699866566696572
Blackmon, Justin JAC WR68999980999946539973
Moore, Denarius OAK WR72996899766767726873
Latimer, Cody DEN WR74997850997483627575
Douglas, Harry ATL WR76995099697969759976
Brown, Marlon BAL WR77717399798471637177
Cotchery, Jerricho CAR WR79995299707875797978
Britt, Kenny STL WR78996999928184734579
LaFell, Brandon NEP WR99729977917073659980
Landry, Jarvis MIA WR80997162778579907481
Kerley, Jeremy NYJ WR99749999578399809981
Burleson, Nate CLE WR99999999607576839981
Streater, Rod OAK WR99999999906874777084
Wilson, Marquess CHI WR99709975999999767885
Sanders, Ace JAC WR99999999589999999986
Richardson, Paul SEA WR99997274999999997687
Kearse, Jermaine SEA WR99759966999999819987
Givens, Chris STL WR99999999996677999989
Jernigan, Jerrel NYG WR99997999638282999990
Thompkins, Kenbrell NEP WR99999999599986999991
Hawkins, Andrew CLE WR99787599738078869992
Washington, Nate TEN WR99999999727199859993
Boyce, Josh NEP WR99769999719999829994
Patton, Quinton SFO WR99999967999999999994
Hill, Stephen NYJ WR99777478829999998094
Bryant, Martavis PIT WR99999999997680999997
Janis, Jeff GBP WR99999976999999999998
Moncrief, Donte IND WR99999999999985739999
Brown, John ARI WR997999999999999999100
Bailey, Stedman STL WR999999999999999999101
Whalen, Griff IND WR999999999999999999101
Abbrederis, Jared GBP WR999999999999999999101
Coleman, Brandon NOS WR999999999999999999101
Alexander, Danario SDC WR999999999999999999101
Goodwin, Marquise BUF WR999999998199999999101
Huff, Josh PHI WR999999999999999999101
Ellington, Bruce SFO WR999999999999999999101
Evans, Shaq NYJ WR999999999999999999101
Herron, Robert TBB WR999999999999999999101
Gallon, Jeremy NEP WR999999999999999999101
Beasley, Cole DAL WR999999999999999999101
Holmes, Santonio FA WR999999999999999999101
Johnson, Charles CLE WR999999999999999999101
Matthews, Rishard MIA WR999999999999999999101
Street, Devin DAL WR999999999999999999101
King, Tavarres CAR WR999999999999999999101
Royal, Eddie SDC WR999999999999999999101
Jones, Jacoby BAL WR999999999999999999101
Little, Greg OAK WR999999999999999999101
Morgan, Joseph NOS WR999999999999999999101
Quick, Brian STL WR999999999999999999101
Brazill, LaVon IND WR999999998399999999123
Rice, Sidney SEA WR999999997589999999123
Jenkins, A.J. KCC WR999976999999998899123
Ginn Jr., Ted ARI WR999999998599999999126
Gibson, Brandon MIA WR999999998899999999127
Roberts, Andre WAS WR999999998088998499128
Toon, Nick NOS WR998099999499999999129
Brown, Vincent SDC WR999999998986999999130
Sanu, Mohamed CIN WR999999999599999999131
Moore, Lance PIT WR999999998487998799132
Underwood, Tiquan CAR WR999999998790999999132
Caldwell, Andre DEN WR999999999399998999134

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