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Three and Out: Aaron Dobson Loves Gronk and Why Vincent Jackson Doesn’t Care Who His QB Is

vj

FIRST DOWN

The Future of the Patriots Passing Attack – Trying to get into the head of Bill Belichik is comparable to trying to break into Fort Knox…it probably isn’t going to happen. What would the 4th of July be without a little Patriots info. It’s well known that Pats’ fans love Gronk, but one of his team mates may be more fond of his TE than the rest. No I’m not talking about Tom Brady. It’s Aaron Dobson that has the man love. When examining the Patriots receiving corps in the Game Splits app, it was interesting to see that every Patriots pass catcher’s points per game declines when Gronk is on the field except Dobson. Take a look below at the numbers.dobsonWhile four games with Gronk may not be a huge sample size, it is interesting to think about. Gronk being on the field could make a difference in the kind of coverage Dobson sees. The player that seems least affected of the group was Danny Amendola, who sees less than a point differential whether Gronk plays or not. Julian Edelman and Kenbrell Thompkins both saw more than a 50% drop in production when Gronk played. Some of what we saw last year could be noise. But it is a reasonable assumption that Gronk will compete for targets in the middle of the field, while Dobson is likely to stay on the outside more and could benefit from defensive attention paid to Gronk and Edelman/Amendola.

Many people will be interested in the availability of Gronk as the season approaches…maybe most of all Aaron Dobson. Keep an eye on this trend as the season progresses.

SECOND DOWN

Zero – The number of games Josh McCown played against top half defenses last year. If we split things further and look at McCown’s performance against the top 50% of the bottom half defenses he did face and you get and even clearer picture of how McCown beat up on poor defenses in 2013. People expecting McCown’s performance to roll over from last year may want to slow their roll just a bit. McCown’s 12.91 PPG against defenses that didn’t completely suck is hardly worth getting excited over.

 

jmHistorically McCown has never been anything great. Over his career McCown has averaged less than 10 PPG against top half defenses. Sometimes you can catch lightning in a bottle and maybe McCown did that last year. In 2014 however, McCown will play against eight top half and eight bottom half defenses. Of those eight bottom half on two ranked below 25th, Green Bay and Minnesota. Head to head I would take every Chicago skill player versus Tampa’s. With inferior talent to what he had last year, expecting a career revival in Tampa Bay may far-fetched.

THIRD DOWN

13.03 PPG – Apparently Vincent Jackson doesn’t care who’s throwing him the damn ball. Over the last three years Jackson has averaged 13.03 PPG whether Mike Glennon or any other QB was throwing him the ball (Josh Freeman in 2012, and Philip Rivers in 2011).

VJ

When it comes to double-digit performances, its more of the same. With Glennon, Jackson posted double digits in 53 percent of his games and 54 percent with other quarterbacks. While VJ has been criticized for having huge games then disappearing at times, it’s good to know that whether McCown isn’t what everyone hopes or Glennon has to come in and be the man, Jackson has been pretty QB-proof over the past three years. Currently, Jackson is coming off the board as the WR16 in MFL10’s. That could be a huge value when searching for big games in best ball leagues. Over the last three years Jackson has had 11 games where he went over 100 yards and had at least 1 touchdown. That ranks 4th behind only Calvin Johnson, Brandon Marshall and Victor Cruz.

FOURTH DOWN

What big game wide receivers are you targeting in best ball formats? Let me know in the comments section below.

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