revolutionary tools.  groundbreaking articles.  proven results.

Expected Points Curves – the Basis of Our Efficiency Stats
Image via footballschedule/flickr
Image via footballschedule/flickr

I meant to do this earlier in the season but things were pretty crazy updating apps and making sure that everything was running correctly. But I have time this morning so I wanted to publish the actual Expected Points curves that the Efficiency App is based on. The Efficiency App just takes the expected fantasy value of each play, based on the line of scrimmage, and then measures the difference between the expectation and what actually happened. Let’s look at the wide receiver receiving curve for an example.

Rplot146

You can see that the Expected Value of a target with a line of scrimmage of the one yard line is about three fantasy points in a half PPR league (all values are based on half PPR in order to not have to keep multiple versions of these numbers). So if a target to a receiver is completed and results in a touchdown, that’s actually 6.6 points. Six points for the touchdown, one tenth of a point for the yards, and one half of a point for the reception. That play results in a positive reFPOE of about +3.6 points. However, if the same player were incomplete, it would result in zero fantasy points, which is about –3.0 reFPOE, because about 3.0 fantasy points were expected.

We then run that same calculation for all plays.

In the graphs below you will note some undulation in the curve. These are all smoothed values where my primary goal was to make sure that the values near the end zone are the most accurate. The undulation on the other side of the field is actually minor and shouldn’t penalize any one player compared to another.  I also didn’t attempt to smooth out those values any more in case that they are meaningful. For instance, a WR rushing attempt looks like it has sort of a V shaped relationship with field position. Maybe that’s noise, or maybe it does reflect a lower expected value for plays that occur on the opponent’s 40 yard line. You could create a narrative (that may or may not be accurate) that says that WR rushing attempts on the other side of the field have more value because a long touchdown is possible and the defense has more field to try to defend.

Here are the rest of the curves for your reference.

Rplot147

Rplot148

Rplot150

Rplot151

Rplot152

Rplot153

recent and related...

in case you missed it...

Bracket Busting: For All The Marbles

High-stakes writers Monty Phan and John Lapinski chronicle their entry in the FFPC Super Bracket contest. The Super Bracket regular season runs for just 11 weeks, and the league is far from decided. After a solid win last week, we’re right back in the thick of it. Here are the

Read More

Week 11 Yahoo! DFS Picks

Identifying my Week 11 NFL DFS picks was easier than it’s ever been thanks to the continued work of our apps development team. The NFL Stat Explorer, the DFS Lineup Optimizer, and our world-famous Game Splits App are three windows I never close on my screen. Let’s build a plan

Read More

Week 11 Primetime Slate DFS Breakdown

Who are the best plays for the Week 11 DFS primetime slate on DraftKings and FanDuel? Tyler Loechner runs through notes on the primetime short slate featuring SNF/MNF games.1 DSF Week 11 Primetime Slate DFS Week 11 Primetime Slate theory thoughts: The two games on this slate are dramatically different

Read More

High Staked: Hello Darkness, My Old Friend

Veteran high stakes fantasy football player Monty Phan chronicles his season. Welcome to Week 11 in FFPC high stakes, where, once again, we’re reminded that there’s a big difference between what we think should happen and what actually occurs. For a lot of teams, it’s – mercifully – the final

Read More

Week 12 Waiver Wire Advice: Top Targets At Each Position

Looking for Week 12 waiver wire advice for fantasy football? You’ve come to the right place. We’ll give you some of the top targets at each position so that when you submit a waiver claim, you do it with confidence. This article will run through the top players available in

Read More
Connect
Support

rotovizmain@gmail.com

Sign-up today for our free Premium Email subscription!

© 2019 RotoViz. All rights Reserved.