The big question that people have been wondering about the 3,601 lineups I posted last week is whether the million dollar lineup was in there. Unfortunately it wasn’t. But I did want to report back the success of those lineups because I’m going to post more today for this week’s upcoming contest.
The best score in the group was lineup #547, which would have placed 59th with a score of 208.7.
|LU #||SCORE||PLACE||$ as if Entered||PLAYERS|
|547||208.66||59||500||DEMARYIUS THOMAS – ANTONIO BROWN – JORDY NELSON – ANDRE ELLINGTON – CAM NEWTON – BEN TATE – JORDAN CAMERON – RONNIE HILLMAN – DENVER BRONCOS|
In sum the lineups would have won $35,315 against a total buy in amount of $92,934. So you would have lost money if you’d entered every lineup1. A lot of money.
But here’s a density plot that shows how the 3,601 lineups did versus all of the lineups entered in last week’s Millionaire Maker. The black line represents all lineups. The red line is the distribution for the lineups that I posted. Then the black vertical dashed line is the actual score of my top projected lineup. It would have beat 87% of the lineups and cashed for $40.
It’s also interesting to note that if you had played just the top 600 lineups you would have made back about 60% of your buy ins compared to 38% of buy ins recouped if you played all lineups.
Just because it’s slightly interesting, here’s the distribution comparison of my top 50 lineups against the MM field. The density of my lineups is shown in red.
To recap the important points:
- In sum the lineups were net losers.
- The top lineups did better than the lower projected lineups.
- The lineups as a whole were still better than the population of lineups in the Millionaire Maker, but the top score of 208 just meant that they didn’t hit the big money.
- Clearly we just need more lineups.
- But we actually also need a better way to randomize the lineups because as I was going through the lineups I realized that most of the same players appeared over and over. So some test as to the correlation of the various lineups is also probably useful.
Finally, because I feel a little guilt, if you entered all of those lineups last week and are down $60k, I’m willing to comp you a free RotoViz subscription for 2015. It’s the least I can do.
- As a note of housekeeping, I’m throwing out some Jake Locker lineups because he didn’t play and throwing them out is more convenient for this exercise than finding a replacement QB for those lineups. (back)